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Ravi Rikhye

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Twitter feed got wiped out because the new computer doesn’t have FrontPage so we’ve been using Word to edit the news. Downloaded Windows Expressions, no idea where it is on the computer and in any case have to learn to use it. Twitter feed will be replaced as soon as we can figure all this out. Meanwhile, just go to editor_orbat@twitter.com if you need to.

America Goes To War

0230 GMT February 5, 2012

· Some really weird stuff that does not involve the US it involves the UK. Last year India told the UK it didn’t want any more aid because it didn’t want the negative publicity the British department giving the aid attached to the money – India very poor, millions dying but for our aid, and so on. India still gets about $500-million of bilateral aid from various countries, three-quarters of it from UK. though it is now officially listed by the World Bank as a middle-income country, and itself gives to developing countries almost as much aid as it receives.

· According to UK Telegraph the British Government “begged” India to take the money because it would be too embarrassing if India did not. Meanwhile, countries that really need aid like Burundi are being cut out because of budget reductions. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/9061844/India-tells-Britain-We-dont-want-your-aid.html

· We are sitting here scratching our heads trying to make sense of this really odd story. Particularly when we learn that one aid project involved putting GPS on garbage collection carts in the city of Bhopal, and also putting GPS on Bhopal buses, even though most buses in the UK itself don’t have this facility. Another project involved supplying 7000 TVs to villages that did not have electricity. None of this makes any sense.

· Scenes we never imagined we’d see So here’s the Muslim Brotherhood, and it’s accusing the West of ignoring Egypt. This is the same Muslim Brotherhood that previously hated the West and what it stood for. Then the Brotherhood is out in the streets of Cairo, stopping demonstrators from marching on Parliament. Why? Because the protesters are calling for the Army to step down from power, but the Brotherhood accepted a deal the Army offered for a gradual phase-out of its role in governing Egypt. Of course the Army has no intention of honoring the agreement, and the Brotherhood knows it, but that’s another story. Essentially the Brotherhood is now protecting the same Army that helped brutally suppress the Brotherhood for decades. Brutally here does not mean that the Brothers were denied their bunny slippers while in jail. The movement was hounded, arrested, tortured, executed, murdered, all with gap abandon and much enthusiasm.

· Re. the west ignoring Egypt. Kids, be thankful, very thankful that the West is ignoring you. Having helped overthrow the dictatorship, the greatest favor the West can do you is to let you figure out things on your own. Trust us.

· More proof – not that you needed it – that this country is now run by idiots Once America led the world in the percentage of its people with college degrees. Now we’ve fallen to sixteenth, because at least half of people who embark on a college degree drop out.

· More proof that this country is now run by incompetent idiots In Mexico, they’ve completed a 230-km , $1.5-billion, 4-land highway across the Andes. To get an idea of what the terrain looks like, visit http://geo-mexico.com/?p=721 The picture is where the world’s highest suspension bridge has been built. (Higher bridges are under construction in India and China.) The highway goes through 63 tunnels. A picture of the bridge is at http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/global-observer/mexicos-baluarte-bridge-becomes-worlds-highest/2568

· Meanwhile, back in the good old USA, in Montgomery County and Prince George’s Counties, Maryland we have a new six-lane road 29-km long. The cost is $2.6-billion. The terrain is more or less flat, for all that someone called it “gently rolling”. We are told this may well be the last highway of any significance built in Maryland for a generation, because, you see, America is broke.

· Anyway. The Mexican highway which is built across mountain, costs $1.6-million per lane kilometer. The Maryland road cost $22-million per lane kilometer. According to http://www.indeed.com/salary/Construction-Worker.html, a US transportation construction worker makes $13/hour (2000 hours a year). As nearly as we can make out, a Mexican laborer makes $2.50/hour or five times less. Now you can figure this out for yourself: the Mexicans get paid five times less than we do, but their road comes in at 13-times less per lane kilometer.

· Okay, so we don’t know what concrete and steel cost in Mexico vs the US. Maybe its cheaper. But we have to say this once again to make the point clear. They built their road across mountains, and rather nasty ones at that. We built our road in the plains. Building in the mountains with all the tunnels and bridges is very, very much more expensive than building a road in the plains, with the most complicated part being the interchanges.

· We leave you to ponder all this. Editor is so aggravated just writing about it he’s off downstairs to hit the ‘fridge for more chocolate.

0230 GMT February 4, 2012

· With statistics, one has to be careful what exactly a particular set of figures mean Unless, of course, you are using statistics for propaganda, in which case you can twist them around to suit yourself. Two recent statistics make our point.

· First, the Government announced that the unemployment rate has dropped to 8.3%. That’s still quite ghastly, but for sure better than the almost 10% at the start of the Great Recession. Problem is, apparently the participation in the labor force has dropped from 66% in 2007 to 64% in 2011. Now, while doubtless the reasons for this need deep study, the reality is that if those people were looking for work, or if they were counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would be back to 10%, meaning nothing has changed in four years.

· Second, the Congressional Budget Office released a study saying government employees are paid more than the private sector, once benefits are included. The problem is the CBO did not compare pay for a type of job in the government sector versus the same job in the private sector. The Bureau of Labor statistics has done that, and concluded private sector workers make 25% more than government workers.

· In both cases the statistics – 8.3% unemployment, government servants making more – are true. But they are also not true when looked at in other contexts.

· Then you have people playing with numbers that are just plain wrong Representative Allen West (R-Florida) has lambasted the Obama Administration for taking our military back to World War I levels. Well, till 1913 the US Army had 75,000 soldiers (100,000 authorized) and no matter which way you look at it, 480,000 is not below 75,000. The higher figure is where the US Army will end up in 2015 after reductions of 80,000.

· A different kind of situation is creating by perfectly honest people making statements without understanding the history of a situation. A decorated young military man maintains that Vice President Biden’s statement that the Taliban are not our enemy is treason. Hate to say this, people, but the Taliban were NOT our enemy till we declared war on them. They hadn’t harmed a single American. True they sheltered OBL. But all they said was “show us your evidence, and we’ll put him on trial”. Was this their final position? No, it was their initial position, and what precisely do you expect them to say when out of the blue a fiat arrives from the US? Scramble to bow and scrape and go “Yes, massa, at once massa?” And please remember, to this day the Taliban have not attacked the US outside of Afghanistan, which they say is their country that they are defending against US invasion. So yes, they are our enemy. But that’s because we declared war on them, not the other way around. And by the way, has the US ever actually revealed the evidence on which it bases its charges against OBL? Please to remember: the US has refused to hand over a Cuban national who is wanted in Venezuela and Cuba for a terror act, bombing a civilian aircraft. He won’t get a fair trial, we say. Sure, and the terrorists we’ve detained under military law were questioned fairly and have been given fair trials. Titter. Of course, Editor has long said all these people should have been shot on capture, but then no one listened to the Editor back home and no one listen to him here. Our point is that we honestly should be careful before we accuse other countries of harboring terrorists and then going and attacking them on that basis.

· If this sincere young American military person believes Mr. Biden has committed treason, what does he have to say to the reality that a country we call our ally, Pakistan, actively works to kill Americans in Afghanistan? Is it then not treason to work with Pakistan, and to give them money? The Afghan Taliban are at least fighting for their country, whether we consider it right or wrong. But Pakistan has an army of 40,000 Pakistani citizens – the so-called Pakistan Taliban – that are fighting against America. In essence these people are mercenaries recruited, trained, armed, and maintained by our so-called ally. Why has the US, from 2001 onwards, eleven years now, tolerated this situation? So it’s not just Mr. Biden that needs to be questioned. It’s Presidents Obama and Bush, and a slew of vice-presidents, senators, defense secretaries, top military leaders and so on. If Mr. Biden is guilty of treason, so are all these people. Re. the generals/admirals: “I was following orders” is not an excuse under a treason charge. Aiding and abetting America’s enemies is treason. Pakistan is our enemy, whether the government chooses to admit or not.

· And if this young man believes Mr. Biden should be tried and hanged, so should all these other persons, and Editor for one enthusiastically supports the notion.

· Yet another situation is created when people decide to give their own meanings to words Thus a recent study by the Centers for Disease Control redefines rape. This heinous crime now includes sex after making promises that the maker knew to be untrue, or indicated they would be unhappy if the person did not have sex with them. Huh? The CDC study tried, by its own lights, to be fair. It spoke equally of sexual violence against men as well as women. It concluded, using the same criteria that one in four men is a victim of sexual violence. So fellers, next time you’re drunk and have sex with your girlfriend’s girlfriend, and your girlfriend comes after you, you can stop her in her tracks by pointing out under CDC standards you were raped. You were impaired because of Demon Liquor, and so your consent was not freely given. On the other hand, maybe you had better not say in your defense: “Your girlfriend raped me” because then you will undoubtedly be a victim of real sexual violence at the hands of your girlfriend.

· So are there ANY statistics or facts about which there is absolutely no doubt? Of course. Here it is another Friday night and Editor has no date. No matter how to look at it, there’s a fact you can’t argue with.

0230 GMT February 3, 2012

· Comment from a top Indian aviation analyst on the choice of the French Rafale Strange are the ways of the Indian Air Force which is still very much in the 'Biggles' era ! The rationale is that it should look good, fly good and to heck with the costs!!

· The matter is compounded by St Antony's Bible, aka Defense Procurement Procedures which is followed as if carved in Stone on the Mount. So the Rafale was 'L-1' which was always known but what about political fallouts? The British, Germans, Italians, and Spanish are not amused and Uncle Sam has earlier been slighted.

· The French have messed up on the Scorpene submarine programme, have taken four years and $ 2.4 billion to upgrade 51 Mirage 2000s and now they are rewarded with the $ 20 billion (and counting) programme for an aircraft which is still not fully developed (AESA radar etc.). But don't forget - the Mirage 2000 also was sans weapons when it came and it has taken 10 years for the Su-30K to evolve into the Su-30MKI of Air Show fame! The tradition continues...

· A bit of explanation is needed. Mr. Anthony is the Indian defense minister. His Number One priority is not the defense of India, but showing the world that he is so pure he would never be improperly influenced in the matter of weapons procurement. Not only must no one be in a position to suggest St. Antony signed a deal for bribes or favors, no one should ever be able to say that the Indian defense minister thought about taking a favor or money for signing a deal. So Indian defense procurement, which to be fair has been dysfunctional for many years before St. Antony became Defense Minister, has ground to a halt. Dozens of very major programs are years and decades behind schedule, to the extent the services’ equipment looks like it has come from a junkyard. Then you have programs which have been signed but are completely messed up, like the ones our analyst friend mentions but also including the T-90 MBT and the Soviet aircraft carrier modernization. Programs are not just delayed to the extent national security is endangered, they massively overrun in terms of costs. But that all is secondary: St. Antony’s purity must not be impugned, that is the Number One priority. There is no one of sufficient stature to give Mr. Antony two tight slaps (to use the Indian expression) and tell him to do his job. The Prime Minister of India, an all-too-honest-and-too-decent a soul, is not in the habit of beating up his cabinet ministers. The head of the ruling party, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, is in no position to say anything to a man who says purity must be maintained because it was her accepting a bribe on the Bofors medium gun – 26 years ago – that started the current mania of everyone rushing to prove they are the purest of them all.

· Just about the only programs that are on track are those with the US Government. There is no question of bribery and American companies are not in the habit – with India at least – of signing a contract than wanting to renegotiate it upwards every year. The Russians, who have the filthiest habits when it comes to honoring contracts, are the past masters at this. If India refuses to keep paying more, the Russians simply stop work. No Indian defense minister – including the present one – has shown the slightest courage in walking away, if necessary, from Russian contracts. If you roam around with a large “Kick me, I am a complete ass” sign on your butt, you can’t blame people when they kick you. So it’s the Indians we blame, not the Russians. Of course, getting to the point where the Indian Government signs a US contract makes the Trojan War and the Odyssey look like 30-minute events.

· His Royal Highness Maharaja of Patiala Our analyst friend, in an attempt to buck-up Editor’s morale re. dates on Saturday nights adds: “What is this nonsense about age? You look in the 40s, behave as a teenager and so what if the US records have you married four times? The erstwhile Maharaja of Patiala was married 6 times and had 300 concubines and lo! His grandson will become CM of Punjab again and his grand affair with a lady from across the border will carry forward Maharaja Ranjit Singh's legacy of the lady from Lahore for whom a special bridge was built, appropriately known as 'Pul Kanjri'.

· Okay, let’s deconstruct this. Editor looks in his 40s solely because of (a) makeup; and (b) he permits visitors only at night, and then the visitors have to sit facing a 400-watt light, behind which the Editor sits. Next, note the bit about “behave like a teenager”. This is our friend’s way of saying “immature, attention deficit, impulsive, no clue as to what you want, and prone to run after every attractive lady within sight, dropping everything else including earning a living.” Suffice to say this emotional make-up is of no use in getting dates on Saturday night, especially in Takoma Park, where 50% of the ladies prefer ladies. The other 50% may be hetro, but have been married several times and believe males are the sole cause of their unhappiness because men can’t behave like women (reverse Professor Higgins, My Fair Lady etc.) Next, the Maharaja of Patiala was, well, a King, and a rich one at that. Plus he was a good-looking, sportsman healthy type of fellow. Editor’s car is held together with duct tape (really), and as for looks, sorry to say this, but based on experience Editor has discovered there is no market for ancient old birds that are 5-feet six, weigh 192-pounds, are bald, wear -16 specs, closely resemble the shape of a rum barrel, and are considerably less entertaining than one. Plus the good Maharaja had in constant attendance a physician who was called on when – er – the flag drooped, so as to speak. Among other lacks, Editor does not have a physician in attendance.

· We’d heard something about the Maharaja’s grandson carrying on with a Pakistani lady (we think both are married to other people, but you see, in India none of this inhibits anyone). As for the “Pul Kanjri”, Pul is bridge, and Kanjri is – er – lady of easy virtue and a fat bank account. The rest you can figure out yourself. This bridge was built the famous Maharaja Ranjit Singh in the early 19^th Century so that a lady of whom he was enamored could conveniently visit him. Inspired by his friend, Editor visited the basement, got out the Lego set, and is busy constructing a bridge. You will not be surprised to learn the Editor’s motto is “Ever Hopeful”.

· 0230 GMT February 2, 2012

Finally saw something on the gym TV that made sense: a show called Transformers.

· So yesterday we had fun making fun of the Germans Today we learn from UK Telegraph the unemployment rate for Germany is 5.5%, Holland 4.9%, and Austria 4.2%. Remember, Germany has had to work through the large numbers of workers from East Germany after unification, not an easy job. Back in the good old USA we’re being told “full employment” is now 6%, something we have to aspire to. May be its time to hie over to Germany and see how they do it: they have a considerably more expensive wage cost than we do.

· One way they do it is they emphasize training and keeping keep their workers in bad times. German workers are also readier to take pay cuts in bad times because the top executives make low multiples of the lowest salaries. Also, the Government doesn’t wait till a worker is unemployed before stepping in. German companies, like Japanese, send their workers for training when business is slow, rather than firing them. Government helps out with the cost of keeping the worker on the payroll. Something Americans forget with their hire and fire policies is that you lose priceless experience when you fire people. Every company in the world now has access to the same money and technology that American companies have. So the only way to succeed is to have more productive workers. If you’re going to fire workers when you don’t need them, you have to retrain new ones when you’re hiring again. Sure some workers you let go will come back. But they will have lost out on the training you’d have given them had they stayed with you, and the longer they’re out the more like new, untrained workers they are when they return.

· New US report on Afghanistan a major yawn The report is based on interviews with thousands of Taliban prisoners and says that the Taliban believe (a) they are winning the war, (b) they will defeat fear Afghan security forces, and they will take over after NATO leaves. Media is saying this has to be pretty depressing for NATO. We’re not sure why NATO is depressed. Neither are the Taliban attitudes a revelation, and nor is there any doubt the Taliban will take over. The report also says Pakistan continues to support the Taliban. While the report is at it, why doesn’t it tell us something useful, like if you jump into a swimming pool with twelve starved alligators, it’s not going to end well for you?

· We should note that the US, France, and UK, at least, are not leaving Afghanistan in 2014. All that’s being said is that combat troops will be withdrawn. But even that is not correct, because thousands of special operations troops and lots of aircraft will remain. How long? Indefinitely. Those remaining behind will prevent an easy Taliban walk-in of Kabul and perhaps the 4-5 major cities, but the rest of Afghanistan will fall. Of course, the reports we get say most of Afghanistan is already under Taliban control, and has been more or less since the nasty regime was vanquished in 2001. All that has happened is that when the US has pushed back, for example in Southern Afghanistan, the Taliban go quiet, but the minute the US takes the pressure off, for example by shifting elsewhere, the area reverts to the baddies.

· But please to note: when the US presence falls to 10,000 at a cost of $10-billion/year, Afghanistan will fall off the American public’s radar. As it is the US has gone to some amazing lengths to avoid casualties to its troops, to the extent people wonder is the US fighting or is it trying to avoid casualties. There is a difference, even if senior American officers get snarky when you ask them that question. After the bulk of forces come home, the US will intensify its efforts at what it euphemistically calls “force protection”, and deaths, which have averaged 15/month over the last ten years, will fall – we guesstimate – to 3/month. Americans have to be honest with themselves: if it weren’t for the budget expense, would Americans really care about what their troops are up to in Afghanistan? We don’t think so.

· 99% of the American people are not affected in any way by the war, aside from the money. Since they have nothing invested in the war, aside from the ritual shedding of crocodile tears about how much “our heroes sacrifice for us”, they don’t care. This suits the military and civil leadership just fine, because if the American people cared, they’d be paying attention, and they would be getting very disturbed at how the afghan war has been fought. For the leadership, it has been a very happy 10 years in Afghanistan. It has gotten to do just what it wants and has not been held accountable in the least for its failures.

· Reader Eric Cox reminds us the lethality of electricity depends on amperage, not just on volts. Low voltage and high amperage is more lethal than high voltage and low amperage. He is, of course, correct. Tasers may deliver 50,000 volts, but it’s at milliamps, so the work being done (volts times amperes equals watts) is low. 50,000 volts is 50KV. Now, if you decided to hug a 66KV power transmission line the consequences will be unfortunate because of high amperage. You will likely cause a short and the Editor’s power will be lost, making him very grumpy because he will leave his computer and actually confront the real world. Even if you don’t cause a short, power will have to be shut off while the power people scrape you off the lines. Mr. Cox also reminds that though India is using 220V, the typical house is likely wired for 7-10 amps where the US house is wired for 20 amps (or used to be, nowadays 20 amps is considered pretty pathetic.) So, he surmises, the shock experienced will be the same.

· Incidentally, we are told that American civil libertarians say 150 people have died due to tasers. This may well be so: the device is said to be safe when used against healthy people. The question to be asked is how many would have died if something other than a taser had been used, say a gun. Of course, the anti-taser people could retort that because police think tasers are harmless they are much more likely to use them than a gun, which even the police understand is lethal force.

· Also incidentally, we read that one reason the Glock is such a favorite with American police departments is that the police are not properly trained in the use of firearms – not enough instruction or time on the range. With the Glock it doesn’t matter if you shoot with the same skill as a quadriplegic: its high rate of fire is going to bring the target down because some bullets are going to hit the target. Occurs to us: won’t the converse apply to the bad guys? They too can buy Glocks. It’s safer, we think, to stay home.

0230 GMT February 1, 2012

· Germany – and therefore the EU – declares Keynes dead We’re a bit surprised that our fiscally conservative friends are not applauding what’s happening in Europe instead of dismissing the place as if it was an avocado republic. (To show how politically sensitive we at Orbat.com are, we’ve banished the term “banana republic” as insulting to Central American states. Since avocados are not a major export for anyone, the term “avocado republic” can hurt no one’s feelings.)

· The EU has overwhelmingly voted to accept Germany’s very tough fiscal prescription: deficits have to be kept very low, which means that spending has to be cut and taxes have to be raised, simultaneously. Failing which a Euro nation will be beaten with limp noodles till it accepts the errors of its ways. Germany has triumphed in a way that would have made old Bismarck weep for joy. (We have to say old Bismarck and not old Hitler because it’s not PC to mention Hitler). From the Channel to the border marches of the old Soviet Union Europe has accepted that what the German hausfrau deems prudent for her household is prudent for Europe. (We hasten to add that we are not being sexist when we use the term “hausfrau”. In Germany most men hand their paychecks over to their wives, and the wives give them pocket money while managing the rest of the money. So since the hausfraus run household finances, it is not not-PC to say what we just did.)

· The EU holdouts are Britannia, which has proclaimed it will fight the Germans on the beaches, it will fight them in the streets, and it will fight them in its bedrooms, submitting only when the said German hausfraus promise to dress in black leather and rigorously apply horsewhips to the posteriors of said Britons; and the Czech Republic which says it isn’t sure it can get parliamentary approval for handing over the national budget to Berlin. The Germans are merely smiling and tapping their feet: they too have become PC and are waiting for the Czechs to read their history books to remind themselves what happened the last time the Czechs said “No” to Germany.

· But so far the evidence from Europe is not hopeful for anti-Keynesians. Five nations have been undergoing the German cure: Ireland, Spain, Greece, Italy, and Britain and with the possible exception of Ireland the others are getting into worse trouble. The reason is simple. Reduced government spending is contracting demand, which means less in taxes is collected, which means the deficit targets get further away, requiring more cuts in government spending and so on down the spiral. UK has now been in recession longer than even in during the Great Depression, though admittedly the unemployment rate was higher then. On the other hand, in contrast to the Good Boy Euros, we have Bad Boy Iceland. It not only defaulted on its debts, it enormously increased its debt:GDP ratio to increase the safety net for people thrown out of work. The ratio went from 10% in 2007 to 80% or more in 2011 (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3396.htm). Unemployment, which had skyrocketed, is falling, home debt is falling, and bankers are again lending to the government. The nation’s banks have been recapitalized and are healthy (http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/10/26/how-iceland-recovered-from-its-near-death-experience/)

· Letter on Occupiers The Occupy movement has deemed the income of the 1% illegitimate. They are, however, getting confused between those of the 1% who get their money from rent, and those who get their money from work. How can a person who has worked his/her way into the 1% assumed to have done something illegitimate, and have stolen from the less well off? Among the 1% there are, for example, large numbers of doctors and lawyers who are at the top solely because there is a demand for their services and they are very good at providing those services. The 1% includes others, like actors and sportspeople. Who is it they have stolen from to get where they are?

· If the Occupiers have a complaint, it should be against the rent class, people who “invest” their money in fancy financial instruments like derivatives and in commodity speculation. They create no jobs worth note nor add much value to society. But even here it should be noted that much of the money off which American rentiers make their money has come from overseas. It certainly has not come from squeezing America’s 99%.

· I still recall the young lady at the Occupy Wall street who said she had taken loans to get an English degree, only to find she cannot get a job, and at the least she shouldn’t have to repay the loans. But who conned her into getting an English degree? No one. That was her choice. If she is so foolish that she did not and does not understand jobs for English majors are few, how is that the fault of the 1%? As for the loan money she doesn’t want to repay. Does she understand the money has come from the taxes paid by all Americans, including mainly the little people she claims to represent? Does it bother her that she will be stealing from the little people, many of whom would love to go to college but lack the skills – or the money – to do so?

· Is this police brutality? A gentleman at the Washington DC Occupy became mightily irate when the police arrived and began putting up notices saying the protests must vacate the government park in which they were camped. They can protest, 24-hours a day if they want, but they cannot camp there. Seems reasonable. After all, if Editor camped there to protest his lack of dates on Saturday, he would be run off very quickly, even though he would be only exercising his right to free speech. The park is for all people, not just those who say they are there to exercise their right to free speech.

· This gentleman expressed his irate-ness by following the police and tearing down notices they posted, all the while making belligerent noises. He was tasered by the police and handcuffed. Two witnesses claimed police brutality because, they said, he was first handcuffed and then tasered. Photographic evidence does not back them up: it shows clearly he was handcuffed after being tasered.

· Let us first say being shot with 50,000-volts is not a happy experience. If you doubt us, stick your finger in an electrical socket and see what 110-volts does to you. In India we use 220-volts, and since Editor from youth has been fearless at taking things apart (he never seems to be able to put them back together) he has been shocked many, many times. It is a very strong and very powerful physical assault on the body. They say 50,000-volts turns you into jelly, and of course people have died from being tasered.

· The question is, what are the police supposed to do when a person resists arrest? Send for hot cocoa, pink bunny slippers, and blue blankies? Back in the day before tasers, the police would have subdued the gent by beating him with nightsticks till he complied. Is that preferable? Have people who claim police brutality every tried to subdue someone who may be larger – much larger – than them and very angry? To do so without someone getting hurt is near impossible. Why should the persons getting hurt be the police and not the person creating the problem? The police have an obligation not to use excessive force, no one has ever maintained they are to use no force. The gentleman has a right to protest the police notice. The way not to do it is to interfere in the police conduct of their duties.

· Many of the Occupiers are young people who presumably go to bars. May we suggest as an experiment they try and break up a bar fight and restrain the participants? After that they will have every right to judge if the police used excessive force in this case.

0230 GMT January 31, 2012

This has to remain a secret between us, so be sure not to tell anyone. Editor may soon be very rich. The other day, in a desperate attempt to get the weighing scale to give him a lower reading, Editor took his wallet from his pocket, figuring okay, that has to count for a couple of ounces. Instead his weight went up a couple of ounces. He has repeated this experiment several times with the same result. Remove wallet. Editor gains weight. Clearly Editor’s wallet contains the secret of anti-gravity. The wallet is so light it has negative weight, which for those of you unfamiliar with the concept, can be due only to anti-gravity. Editor will keep you posted on developments, but first he has to patent his wallet.

· Syria: we may actually see movement What started out as non-violent demonstrations against the Syrian dictator has now become a full-fledged civil war that is lapping at the Damascus suburbs. The Arab League’s mission having failed (predictably), the League has turned to the UN.

· Also predictably, Russia and China have threaten to veto any security Council resolutions such as the one now under debate, which requires Assad to step down and step pout of Syria. That these two countries are part of the scum of the earth is no surprise, and nor is it a surprise that the west is forever gasping and panting after China’s enormous economic market.

· What’s different this time is the west has threatened Russia that it will go ahead with its resolution, which is fully backed by almost all Arab League nations, and let Russia have the pleasure of explaining to the world why it is backing a ruthless dictator. In other words, the west is threatening to isolate Russia. China has gone very quiet but which way Beijing will jump when the shoving comes to the pushing is to be seen. Back in the day China and Russia could count on the Third World, which was chock-a-bloc with wall-to-wall dictatorships. But now things have changed: many of the same Third World countries are now democracies; more to the point, when the Arabs themselves are saying Assad must go, it becomes difficult for any outside country to say he must stay.

· Now, as readers know we’re big on the Fairness Doctrine, and we have to note that while the Soviets may have been Numero Uno in the number of dictatorships they supported, the US was a close second. Of course that was a time of global conflict with the Soviet Union, and the US wanted allies regardless of their unsavory habits like not washing their hands after a bathroom visit. With the end of the Cold War the US changed but the Soviet Union and China did not. The reason was simply that starting from 1917 (Soviets) and 1949 (China) the first priority of the leaders of these countries was preservation of their rule by any means necessary. Every time a dictatorship falls, Russian and Chinese leaders get a bit more desperate because their time is coming closer.

· This does not mean that the world’s transition to democracy is one smooth curve. You have plenty of lapsed states, Venezuela in our neighborhood being the prime example. Russia 2012 is itself a lapsed state. You have places like Ukraine who are going backward, and countries like Hungary and Ecuador where the leaders are trying their best to free themselves of democratic checks-and-balances. Egypt is not turning out to be the kind of democracy the West may have envisaged. Etc. But ups and downs notwithstanding, in the modern world it is becoming increasing difficult for leaders to justify to their people and to others why they must have dictatorial authority.

· Meanwhile the Chinese, Africa and South America’s new wannabe imperialists are starting to learn the downside of the game. Twenty of their oil workers have been kidnapped in South Sudan. There have been previous attacks on Chinese workers, including in Afghanistan. If the Chinese send their own forces to provide security, its hey-ho we’re back to the 19^th Century. The inevitable next step is making sure the government remains friendly to you, and we don’t have to explain where that leads.

0230 GMT January 30, 2012

· Global cooling? Readers may recall we mentioned that Russian scientists believe the world is headed for a cooling period, not a warming period. They said that the sun would start cooling in 2011. There is a tendency to look at Russian scientists as a bit crazy, not quite stable, so as to speak. But we said that since the Russians were predicting the start of a cooling period from 2011, we’d know soon enough if they were correct.

· Now, what we did not know at that time was its accepted science that Earth’s temperatures vary with the sun’s activity. But the global warming division says the effect of CO2 overrides the cooling effect of the sun.

· Well, UK Metrological Office (which is a firm believer in CO2 induced global warming) has released figures showing that after peaking in 1997, temperatures stopped rising despite ever-increasing CO2. Met says that there is a 92% chance that out to 2100 we will see sun-induced cooling cycles equal to greater than the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) of 2C for Europe, but the increase in CO2 will negate that. www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html The Met Office study was done with University of East Anglia and utilizes data from 30,000 global points.

· Okay. We need to approach this very slowly, with no sudden movements to alarm anyone. First, please note that even UK Met Office is saying that out to 2100 there will be no net change in temperature. And as we noted, UK Met Office believes that CO2 is the important factor in increasing global temperatures, not the sun. So this has to mean something. Second, Met’s probability calculation is saying there is a significant chanced we could fall to the 17^th Century’s Maunder Minimum, the Little Ice Age.

· Now, the article has people saying that the warming has stopped, and Met Office’s repeated predictions in the 2000s of higher temperatures have not happened. Met Office defends itself, and says the science is good, and it’s too soon to say it is wrong. But even Met Office is saying sun cooling will cancel out the CO2 temperature rise. The people who are saying Met office/CO2 believers are wrong as shown by the last 14 years, say that we will really get whacked temperature wise as early as 2022, which is called Cycle 25 (the sun has 11-year cycles, we’re in Cycle 24 now; Editor doesn’t know why its Cycle 24). An additional complication is that those who believe the oceans control temperatures (warmer sun = warmer oceans = warmer land) note that the Pacific in 2008 started cooling and the Atlantic is expected to start in the next few years.

· Work your way through school like Newt – Not Now, people, Editor loves America. If he didn’t, he would up and move. But loving America is one thing, understanding it is another. The other day Newt created a bit of a minor furor when he said minimum wage should be abolished and school kids should be encouraged to work, so that they learn good habits and earn their way through college and on to success. You may be forgiven for thinking that Newt worked his way through college. Most people who deliver homilies on how others should lead their lives usually have some basis in the own experience for telling other what to do.

· But we learn that as far back as 1995 Vanity Fair wrote an article that said Newt steadfastly refused to get a job to see him through college. His then wife – who worked – paid his bills, as did his stepfather. Newt made a case he shouldn’t have to work since he wanted to focus on his studies.

· So you roll your eyes and say “There Editor goes again. We know he doesn’t like Newt, so he bashing him, once again.” But you would be mistaken this once. This is not a Newt bashing piece. Newt is what he is, a blow-hard, an egomaniac, a person of vast, superficial knowledge who nonetheless has pretentions to being an intellectual, a user of women, and a liar. In other words, just your average typical flawed human being.

· No. Our bafflement concerns Newt’s supporters. Why are they supporting him? Doesn’t it matter to them the man has no integrity? You see, it’s no use attacking America’s politicians for being venal and ineffectual. Who puts these politicians in power? It’s us, not the Martians. Of all Newts sins, in editor’s opinion the most egregious was carrying on a campaign to impeach the President of the US for lying about his affairs when Le Grande Newt was carrying on an affair. There is a case to be made that Mr. and Mrs. Clinton had an arrangement between them and she accepted her husband could not keep his pants zipped. But the same is not true of Newt’s then wife. Why is this not bothering his supporters? Or is their case that it has to be Anyone But Obama, even if it’s the Creature From The Black Cesspool? Or are Newt’s supporters being secretly paid off by the Obama campaign? This theory, unlikely as it is may seem, would be more logical than accepting Newt’s supporters actually believe in him.

· Why is Greece a scandal and not Illinois? After all this Newt bashing we feel obligated to note that feckless American politicians are everywhere, it is obviously not just a GOP problem. Reader Luxembourg forwards an article by John Rubino in http://dollarcollapse.com/the-economy/why-isnt-illinois-a-bigger-story-than-greece/ Illinois has $2.7-billion in unpaid bills, has $27-billion in outstanding bonds, and $80-billion in unfunded pension liabilities.

· Honestly, we don’t know anything about Illinois or for that matter about any US state And we suspect that may be one reason Greece is a scandal and Illinois not, because more people know about Greece than Illinois. Plus, of course, Greece’s problems are far, far worse than debts of $130-billion. Greece’s debts are owed to other people, not to its own citizens. If Illinois goes bankrupt, it’s not going to affect the stability of the US dollar or take down the US economy.

· Reader Luxembourg has told us that four Illinois governors have gone to jail and two were arrested, tried, and acquitted. From Wikipedia we learn that after one of the two was acquitted, 8 jurors received state jobs, and the gent’s attorney argued that the governorship has the divine right of kings. The jobs to the jurors alone should settle the issue of was the man honest.

· But Illinois should console itself. In India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh, they are voting for a new state government. Because of its enormous size, UP has to vote in phases. 38% of the candidates in the first phase have criminal records or are under trial but not yet convicted. (Trials in India tend to be like Newt or like Bill Clinton, going on and on.) http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/UP-1st-phase-poll-candidates-38-criminals-51-millionaires/articleshow/11663212.cms

0230 GMT January 29, 2012

Saw a new (for us) show on the TV at the gym, “Royal Pains”. The title says it all. Only thing of note to report is the show features a lady who by her looks has to be from India. She is either 6-feet 6-inches tall or the protagonist is a midget. Then we read that Fran “The Nanny” Drescher says she and her brother were kidnapped by aliens as children and chips implanted in the palms of their hands. This is not a likely story. Aliens do not implant chips in the palms of humans’ hands.

· Who ratted out Osama? The US Secretary of Defense says it’s the Pakistani doctor who is under arrest in his home country. So you can go for Occam’s Razor, and choose the simplest explanation, and accept what SecDef is saying. On the other hand, given the Pakistanis want him tried for “high treason”, why confirm their suspicions and essentially condemn the fellow. Wouldn’t it make sense to divert attention from your main man by pointing fingers at someone else? Who knows.

· We find the Pakistan government position untenable. And no, it’s not because as SecDef says Pakistan and US are on the same side, implying the man should be regarded as a hero or whatever. Everyone knows Pakistan and US are NOT on the same side but are enemies in the matter of the GWOT, the Taliban, AQ and so on.

· If Pakistan wants to try the man for high treason, it is clearly saying that OBL was of the highest importance to the security of the Pakistan state. This is untenable, because Pakistan is condemning itself by taking this stand.

· UK Independent has the story of how Osama was likely found through the doctor http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/doctor-who-led-us-to-bin-laden-was-cia-agent-says-us-6296129.html

· Greece and the attack of the Euro Nanny State Greece has been told it has to give up control of its budget to qualify for continued bail-outs. To soften the blow, Greece is being told it is not being singled out, other states who fail to get their houses in order right quick will be subject to the same terms.

· Now, we can get outraged at the demands being made on Greece (more likely no one cares enough to pay any heed to the issue, but we have to pretend its important, else we wouldn’t have anything to write about in the blog). Alternately, we can say beggers can’t be choosers. You wanna be the mistress of your destiny, you gotta stand up for yourself and take the consequences. Iceland did, and three years later its again open for business. Like them or hate them as smug, moralizing economic Huns, the Germans have a point. If they have to bail out Greece, Athens has to swallow its medicine even if it means having to swallow a large cow. Yes, it’s true that Germany benefited from Greek profligacy, because Greece bought lots of stuff from Germany. True but irrelevant. Bankers are not into some esoteric doctrine of fairness, they are into getting their kilogram of flesh. In Greece’s case, many kilograms. (We’re talking Europe here, so we can’t say pound of flesh.

· Our advice to Athens is to tell the Eurobankers to go do something disgusting to Gulf camels, default, and take the consequences. Sure. Money can be a god we worship, but it can’t be the only god or even the Leader of the God Pack.

· China claims success in war against deserts An interesting story from Xinhua, if true. It says up to the end of the last century China was losing 10,000-square-km/year to desertification, but reclamation projects have now reversed the trend, with 7500-square-km/year being reclaimed. There’s no intrinsic reason why China should not have achieved this, as you need 10,000 trees per square-kilometers to survive replanting, so we’re talking less than 10-million trees a year. This is not a big deal. Its just that with China’s official claims you have to be a bit careful. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/30/content_4618229.htm

· This raises the question of why instead of whining and moaning the US is not planting more trees. An acre of trees removes the CO2 generated by one American http://www.coloradotrees.org/benefits.htm One-third of the US is forested; if we upped this to about 50%, that would take care of a whole lot of global CO2. US itself is not increasing by much: 3% annual growth would mean 2.7% increase in emissions http://emf.stanford.edu/files/pubs/22463/op53.pdf

0230 GMT January 28, 2012

· Is 12-trillion barrels of oil enough for you? We’ve been saying the world is not about to run out of oil. Now you can read Business Week (p. 89, January 30 - February 5, 2012) and see for yourself: 1.2 trillion barrels of liquid oil, 4.8-trillion shales, and 6-trillion tar sands. That’s 340 years at today’s use rates. Business Week acknowledges the environmental issue in extracting unconventional oil. But hopefully people will learn to do it with less of an environmental impact.

· Meantimes, what’s up with fusion? No good news, we’re sorry to say. The research proceeds as if we had all the time in the world, which we don’t. 2018 is the earliest a reactor will show it can generate net power, but it will be for short periods at a time. It will be the 2030s before a continuously-on fusion reactor will be operational. Given the leisurely pace at which US does things these days, 2040s seems more reasonable. The will come reactors which will show the electricity generated is is commercially viable. So give it till the 2060s before you see any significant number of fusion reactors. Why fusion? Limitless fuel supplies, no problem of left-over fuel (though there is a smaller problem of tritium wastes, tritium being a radioactive baddie you want to avoid) and you cant get a runaway chain reaction or melt-down.

· US is actually moving fast on a defense program Military Sealift Command issued requests for tenders to refurbish LSD-15 USS Ponce for deployment to the Gulf as a mothership for Navy commandos. MSC wants the job done by summer. Work is to start by mid-February, and sea-trials to start in April. LSD-15 was originally scheduled to be decommissioned March 30. As from commandos and the small boats they use, the ship will carry MH-53 minesweeping helicopters. US Navy has about 35 of these helicopters and 14 minesweepers. Then there’s the dolphins.

· Is Warren Buffett’s secretary one of the 1%? Here’s what passes for a serious discussion in the blogosphere. Someone figured that if Buffett’s pays taxes at 15% and if – as he says – his secretary pays taxes at a higher rate, she has to be earning at least $200,000 and perhaps even as much as $500,000. This clever gent notes that because of allowances and deductions and so on, if you earn – say $100,000, you don’t pay the max rate applicable to $100,000 right away. First you subtract the income that is not taxed at all, then you tax the next slab at 10%, and the next slab at 15% and so on (however it works in the US). So on that $100,000 you don’t pay $15,000, you pay less.

· Clever gent says he has nothing against Buffett’s secretary making $200,000 to $500,000, he is sure she deserves it, but given her likely income, clever gent wonders if it’s appropriate for secretary to attend the Snooze of the Union address as an example of 99% when she might be in the 1%.

· The problem with this argument is: was secretary invited as a representative of the 99%? We don’t see any evidence she was invited as representative of the Great Unwashed, or as the French so elegant put, the Without Underpants. No one has claimed she’s part of the 99%. All Buffett said was she pays a greater proportion of her income in tax than he does.

· \Luckily, the Wall Street Journal has some data which helps clarify the debate and which clever gent might have consulted via a Google search before ranting. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204002304576627420875519978.html

· Mr. Buffet paid 2010 tax at a rate of 17.4% of his income. Those earning between $103,000 and $163,000 pay an average of 18.2%. So voila, she is paying a great proportion of her income as tax than he is, and she was invited to help Mr. Obama make the point he considers this unfair. There’s nothing more to the invite.

· By the war, before supporters of the clever gent write to us and say “you’re being sarcastic about what’s on the blogosphere? What about your blog?” But when have we claimed this is a serious blog?

· Generally, if you work with figures all you learn, you learn that most often there is less to the figures than people using them claim. This is because people use the figures to make a point. They do not first do impartial research covering all bases and then come up figures. There’s a human tendency to use the figures that best support your case rather than be impartial. On top of which Americans consider it perfectly okay to manipulate figures to support their case.

0230 GMT January 27, 2012

At the Gym

At the gym, when the Editor was doing weights, he was spared having to watch TV. He doesn’t watch it home. When people express astonishment he ends discussion by saying it’s against his religion. This is one comeback that always works in America because we are so PC no one will dare ask: “And what religion is that?” When at school staff would invite Editor to join them in the Friday Evening Follies, Editor would say it’s against his religion to drink and dance. The truth was Editor was not about to spend $20-30, equally, he was not about to spend 3-4 hours having fun when he could be working. One day a new and bold young teacher did ask what was the Editor’s religion. “Seventh Day Adventist”, Editor replied, correctly figuring bold young thing would know Adventists don’t drink, but not know they having nothing against dancing and having fun.

But back to the gym. The doctor has put Editor on an intensive cardio regimen, where he is supposed to get his heartbeat to average 140 for an hour. He’s been doing the hour religiously, but the 140 he manages only twice a week as yet. Anyway, the cardio, because it’s all out, involves a considerable amount of pain – not that the doctor cares. In case you wonder why Editor listen to doctor, it’s because she’s from India and terribly cute. Editor is anxious to get her approval; he’s unsure why, it’s not like he’s going to get a date. Aside from the impropriety, doctor is at least half Editor’s age, if not younger. Further, no woman who has – er – done the things a doctor has to do to her patient (we draw a curtain to spare those of delicate sensibilities) can have the slightest romantic feeling about said patient. Still further, Indian lady doctors don’t go for partially-employed school teachers. At the very least it has to be another doctor. And no lady doctor who has patiently sat there while patient (Editor) blubbers on how he’s being mistreated by his wife (then wife) and going through boxes of Kleenex, can have the slightest admiration for said patient. Women do not have warm feelings toward men who are, to put it succinctly, total wimps where women are concerned, particularly when those women are their wives, present or ex.

But back to the cardio. The only way the Editor gets through the hour is by watching the TV – the weight machines obviously have no TV, but the cardio machines do. The distraction helps him get by. Editor watches without sound because he doesn’t want his mind further degenerated by what passes for popular entertainment. The ads are of precisely two varieties. You have women making oral love to candy, which makes Editor very angry and jealous because he wants the candy. Or you have a bunch of people who cannot dance to save their lives breaking into slow-mo dances because they got a deal on their tax refund (that’s before they get the notice from the IRS for claiming improper deductions), or their internet company (that’s before they find the fantastic low-price they’re getting is only a third of the total bill after the ad ons), or something equally stupid.

For some reason, at the time Editor goes to the gym, between 3 and 4:30, his only choices are soaps, CSI/Law and Order, or something called Burn Notice. What happened to the afternoon cartoons, or is Editor again fantasizing about a perfect America that never actually existed? The problem with the soaps – remember, Editor is watching without sound – is that attractive looking people are constantly either ripping of each others’ clothes or taking a veeeeeeeeeery looooooong time to die. For the second category you find yourself shouting “Die! Die! Die!”, which the other gym members find disturbing for some odd reason. For the first category, you can’t help thinking “this is soooo unrealistic”. Editor has been around a long time, and he can assure his readers no attractive woman has ever ripped off his clothes. Come to think of it, no unattractive woman has either. And Editor has never gotten close enough to attractive women to rip off their clothes. Plus, knowing how PC we are in America, there’s probably a gym rule requiring guests to not separate women guests from their clothes.

So: CSI/Law and Order. Let the Editor say that shows about people alternating between looking long and hard at fibers, with expressions that suggest they have discovered the solution to what’s on the other side of a black hole, and conducting long, boring, meaningless interrogations of suspects in sparklingly clean rooms with new furniture and tastefully painted walls are not particularly gripping. Plus they’re unrealistic. Everyone knows you get the suspect to confess by giving him the 3^rd degree, or by threatening to frame him for seventeen murders when all he did was spit on the sidewalk.

That leaves Burn Notice, which Editor admits he can watch for 30 seconds at go without flinching. (The rest of the time he has his eyes closed and is praying the exercise machine clock would just speed up a bit.) There is a minor problem with Burn Notice. The good guys seem to off acres of bad guys in each show and the police never come around. Everyone is running around with submachine guns carried openly, no one thinks this is odd. The hero can outdraw a man holding a gun on him at three meters, the baddie tastefully crumples while the hero gets a look that says “Cripes, I forgot to floss in the morning.” The good guys get shot, gassed, run over, drowned, blown up, but never need to go to hospital. Burn Notice hero treats them at his mother’s house. Heck, he operates on himself at his mother’s house, while getting a lecture from her about the need to get a job (we assume this is what she’s saying, she has that look. The heroine is invariably severely underdressed – the locale is a beach city and there’s every opportunity taken to work severely underdressed women into every scene – and acts seductive around the hero, who however is too sensitive or too cool – or is it too respecting of her? – to make a move. You do learn he cares deeply about her when she gets shot or blown up or drowned and his left eye twitches one millimeter. You have to anticipate that twitch, it happens so quickly, but Editor by now is an expert. Everyone lives in gorgeous apartments and houses with great art on the wall, and drives nice cars, bad guys especially. Oh yes, did we mention the homemade explosives made from scratch using Mom’s favorite blender, boxes of ball bearings, and kilometers of wire? In one episode heroine is stirring rat poison into the blender mixture. If these people are so good, why has the CIA not drafted them? And of course no one’s cell phone ever drops a call.

The real problem is not even the shows. It’s that as Editor gets used to the exercise (and despite his age he still gets used to new forms of exercise very quickly) that 140 heartbeat target becomes harder and harder to meet. Now, of course, if his doctor would rip off his clothes he might get the heartbeat up. On the other hand, given his age he might easily assume doctor wants to be tucked into bed and read a bedtime story. Alas, while Bob Dylan may remain Forever Young, its true tide and time wait for no man. And neither does the mortgage company.

Oooookaaay, you say, and what does this have to do with the Global War On Terror? Truthfully, that’s a hard question to answer. Editor was about to write about the US Army’s proposed reorganization in view of the coming reductions (just as stupid as every other reorg), discuss what Nancy Pelosi may have on Newt (she said on CNN/John King she knows something that will ensure he never becomes Prez), inform you about the move to break-up Yemen (it should never have been unified), the latest trouble with South Sudan oil (Sudan and south Sudan cannot agree on the royalty split), and the SEAL Six rescue of two aid-workers in Somalia, but somehow Editor got diverted….

0230 GMT January 26, 2012

· Julian Assange, Kremlin mouthpiece if Associated Press had not reported this story, we would have paid it no attention. It’s one of those stories that is so outrageous, you automatically toss it. Russia Today is a Kremlin-funded media company. It is to have a new talk show. The host will be Julian Assange, the same fellow who accused the US government of lies and deceit, and who said he had to release classified cables to show how lying and deceitful the US was. The Kremlin, of course, wouldn’t know a lie or a deceit because of its fabulous record of media honesty, government transparency, and democracy.

· Back in the day before certain gays appropriated the adjective “Queer”, depriving the English language of a wonderfully versatile word, we’d have said Assange is a queer chap. (By the way, we suggest the gays responsible be whipped with limp noodles: you can’t just take words from a language and then go “Mine! Mine! Mine! No one else is allowed to use it!”) But after this latest news, we don’t think “queer chappie” does the man justice. How about cynical, hypocritical, self-promoting, dishonest, mercenary, narcissistic, emotionally dead, and financially greedy?

· We hope defenders of Julian Assange wake up and accept he is no hero. And while we’re on the subject, can gays please give us the word “gay” back? The word means carefree, happy. It does NOT mean homosexual or lesbian. Big surprise: there are perfectly good words for homosexual and lesbian. The words are “homosexual” and “lesbian”. Also to be noted for the benefit of middle-schoolers: “gay” does not mean stupid or unacceptable behavior. They have words for those states, and the words are “stupid” or “unacceptable.”

· If homosexuals do not give the words queer and gay back, we will launch a one-person crusade and call them “design” and “parchment”. Why? Because those words just happened to come to mind. And if homosexuals want to retaliate by calling grump, date-less Editors “kumquat” or “partridge”, the Editor will escalate to “gravitational constants” and “paperclips”.

· So sometimes the outrage is misplaced and then there’s the Law of Unintended Consequences. We’ve been carrying on about the Keystone XL pipeline. Now, we did note that Plan B for the tar sands producers is to reverse the flow of several pipelines that move oil from Gulf ports inland. What we didn’t know is that some of the tar sands oil is going to move by rail. It adds $3/barrel to the cost compared to pipeline, but with prices what they are today that’s not a non-starter. Moreover, we’re told that there’s a lot of trouble over pipelines for the new hydrocarbon boom in North Dakota, so the black gold is already moving by rail. Read http://www.progressiverailroading.com/class_is/article/Railroads-aim-to-tap-Bakken-Shale39s-vast-traffic-potential--26587

· The Law of Unintended Consequences comes in because the Greens, by blocking the pipeline, will lead companies to use rail, which is more carbon intensive than pipelines. Also, the environmental risk is greater. A 150-tank-car train will move 4.5-million gallons (its 90-120 cars as a norm now, but the trend is toward longer trains, Union Pacific has been testing three-mile long trains which we think is 300-tank-cars worth – will someone please check? So if there’s an accident…well, you can use your imagination. F

· It’s being suggested that the Keystone XL no-go is going to benefit a certain railroad buff who is a Democratic contributor, namely Warren Buffett, who recently brought Union Pacific. If so, we would not be outraged because everyone pays off their congressperson or president, so what is the big deal.

0230 GMT January 25, 2012

· An occasional reader asks why we don’t care for the environment because we have been beating up on Greens regarding keystone XL pipeline. First, no one claiming any degree of sanity is NOT a green. We live on Spaceship Earth, and as is often said, we have to look after our home. Also, while the Bible says that God made the Earth so that his favored creation – that would be us including Editor and Newtie – can enjoy its benefits, the Bible also says that the Big Guy wants us to be good stewards of his creation. Makes sense, because whoever the Big Guy or Big Gal is, who wants to create something and that a bunch of idiots mess up the place?

· Everyone looks at the world through their own unique lens, and Editors happens to be national security. Editor’s belief is that America’s need for energy has distorted both its foreign and defense policies, and has cost the country in ways that no one has bothered to quantify, but can be shown to be considerable. As far back as 1973 when the A-wabs first started messing us up on oil – we seem to recall it was $3/barrel then, about $15/barrel in today’s money – America realized it needed energy independence. For reasons we need not discuss, the idea went nowhere. But it is as valid an idea now as it was then.

· So: no doubt exploiting North American hydrocarbon resources has an environmental cost. Our point is (a) relying on imported oil also has a cost, and (b) we may as well take Canadian oil because Canada is a loyal and faithful ally instead of the oil going to the Chinese.

· We have a larger problem with the Greens They don’t want us to do this, and they don’t want us to do that, but they never suggest alternatives. Solar and wind are not alternatives to carbon. We don’t want to insult anyone, particularly not people whose intentions are good and ultimately beneficial to everyone, but anyone who does not see solar and wind are not alternatives needs (a) to adjust their meds; (b) to get out an elementary text on energy, its production and its usage.

· If people don’t want America to burn coal and oil they should be pushing nuclear, which objectively is far safer than carbon. If people are going to oppose nuclear as an article of religious faith instead of looking at the data, then they have to accept the consequences of their anti-nuclear stance and accept carbon. You cannot just sit in the middle of the playroom, grab all the blocks, and say “No. No. No. No. No.”

· Another problem we have with Greens is their class warfare Having gotten the benefits of industrialization, Greens of every advanced country don’t want the poor around the world to get those benefits. This is not their intention, but it is the outcome of their policies. Back home, our Greens who enjoy a nice living don’t give an old, tired butt hair about Americans who need jobs. This is not right, and it certainly is immoral.

· Recently, the US shut down one of its largest refineries which is in the Virgin Islands. The refinery is for sure partly a victim of globalization. More economical refineries are being built elsewhere. But it is also a victim of tough EPA regulations, which it could not meet without a massive and costly upgrade and for which it was getting fined. The company, again in the age of globalization, has no interest in spending money to upgrade when it can go to anyone of twenty or fifty other countries and built its refinery there free of the EPA. Two thousand people are out of work in a place good jobs are difficult to come by. What do the Greens have to say about that as they (presumably) celebrate the closing of another dirty industrial plant? Why, they have nothing to say. We have no figures, but is it a stretch to think that they have nothing to say because their jobs don’t depend on industry?

· Ultimately we say that the national security argument trumps the environmental argument. Particularly when Canadian oil is going to get mined regardless. We can stop Americans from mining American oil, but we still need that oil, and so it will be mined somewhere else. Even if other countries had environmental safeguards of US quality, which they don’t, the net addition of carbon dioxide to the earth’s atmosphere is going to be exactly the same.

· Last, old nuclear is not new nuclear To begin with the damage from nuclear accidents in the last fifty years is absurdly small. A few hundred people at most have died. Several hundred thousand people die because of air pollution caused by burning coal. To those who still worry about nuclear: the new nuclear is quite different. In old nuclear, if something went wrong, active human intervention was required to stop the plant. In new nuclear, if anything goes wrong the plant shuts down by itself – the core reaction stops. Moreover, you can bury these things underground – and pay a bit more for your power. Think about it, Greens. You want to phase out coal and oil, nuclear is the sole alternative. This also means putting a lot more money into fusion research than we have. But that’s another story.

0230 GMT January 24, 2012

· Oh the horror! SoCal may have half-a-trillion barrels of oil This is in the so called Monterey shale formation, which has been yielding large quantities of oil so its not a new deal. But due to ever improving recovery techniques and the escalating price of oil, the additional oil in the formation suddenly become interesting. No one is talking of recovering half-a-trillion barrels by, say, next week. Right now the discussion is about billions of barrels.

· This article http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2010/11nov/monterey1110.cfm dates from November 2010 and was sent by a reader. Over 300,000-acres is being surveyed in 3D to get a better handle on precisely what it will take to recover the oil. We’re wondering is the Monterey okay with the greens or is this something they haven’t as yet picked up on? Should be good for thousands of jobs: greens raising money and campaigning to stop the development. The Divine must truly have cursed America by endowing it with so much mineral wealth. It would have been so much better if this country had no resources, because then development would not risk damaging the environment.

· This gives rise to a thought. How about we all give up our cars and houses and gadgets and movies and McDonald’s, and weave tents from organic grass in which to live. Then we can grow the food we need on our plots. Editor, for example, has 7000-square feet. His tent – or cardboard box– would take up perhaps 25-square-feet. He could probably produce a surplus of veggies on the rest of his land. Wouldn’t need electricity, when the sun went down we could all get right to sleep. No need to worry about sewer systems, just use the woods round the corner. We wouldn’t need transport since there would be no reason to go anywhere, what with the McDonalds’ gone. The jobless situation would be solved: we’d all have jobs, because we’d be working to feed ourselves. After we shut down the factories, we wouldn’t have to worry about the side effects of medicines, because we wouldn’t have any medicines except herbal ones. No need to worry about lazy public servants because we wouldn’t have a government. No more worries about the lagging performance of American students because we wouldn’t have any schools: we’d need the little tykes to help weave the tents and grow the veggies. No problem with entitlements because we wouldn’t have a government. We wouldn’t need social security and Medicare etc because most people would be dead of starvation or disease by the time they were 40.

· Editor just had even a better idea. Why don’t the seven billion of us people on earth just collectively kill ourselves? Then you’d have an absolutely pristine environment. Thank you for suggesting Editor for a special Nobel prize.

· Feminist confusion and the unexamined life When one decides to live life according to a fixed doctrine rather than having a set of universal values and continually examining your life to see if you are being true to your values, the result is confusion. Whether you’re a religious fundamentalist or an environmental fundamentalist, or (like the editor) a national security fundamentalist, the nice thing about being doctrinaire is you are freed of the need to think. Each time you confront a situation, no problem, pull out the Red Book or the Green Book or the Purple Book, or whatever, turn to page 122, and there is the answer to what you’re supposed to do. No need to think. But being doctrinaire can lead you into absurdity.

· So it is with feminists who insist that if the husband is unfaithful, a true feminist must leave him. Parenthetically we wonder if true feminists hold themselves to the same rule, i.e., if they are unfaithful their husbands must leave them, whether or not the husbands want to leave. But that is question for another time. Readers will remember when Bill Clinton was caught with his pants – er – down, his wife was attacked by feminists for not leaving him. Now we have another case, the former chief of the IMF, whose wife, Anne Sinclair, is not leaving him after it was revealed to the public that he thinks pants are to be worn no higher than your knees.

· Now, Ms. Sinclair, being French, can be quite sharp-tounged , unlike our own Mrs. Clinton, who prides herself on her manners. Ms. Sinclair has told the feminists “You leave your husband if you want to leave him. That is your problem.” She has further said she is not about to let others judge how she should run her marriage.

· We need to fast-reverse a bit and ask, how did this business of leaving your husband if he is unfaithful come up. This dates from the dates when women were oppressed, or at least believed they were, and had no power. So the wife of a straying spouse supposedly had to choice but to shut up and put up. But the modern, powerful, feminist woman doesn’t have to put up with her husband’s straying. She is strong, independent, capable of looking after herself, and savvy enough to hire a good lawyer and take the s.o.b. to the cleaners. (To those who say: “but that was the case also when women had no power”, we say “Can you please not muddy the purity of the narrative with your incessant whining?”)

· But what some feminists don’t seem to realize is that being a feminist does not mean you read from a book of doctrine. It means you empower yourself to make the choices that make sense to you without regard to the petty bourgeois conventions of middle class society. Ms. Sinclair, like Ms. Clinton, makes her choice to stay in her marriage. In both cases, we would be naïve to believe that the women did not known before marriage that their intendeds had trouble with their pants. Ms. Sinclair’s intended even told her not to marry him because he could never be faithful. But Ms. Sinclair, a feminist, decided to blow-off middle-class convention and decided fidelity was not a main issue with her. She made her choice as a strong, independent, and empowered woman, just as Ms. Clinton made her choice. Neither woman was a victim or an oppressed wife. In Ms. Sinclair’s case, aside from she had her own career as a broadcaster – and as far as we know continued to keep her career – she also has her own money (an inheritance), like a single digit followed by 8 zeroes worth of money. In her marriage, it is her husband who lacked the power. He got just a piddling half-a-million or so (the minimum you need to be a Washington one-percenter, poor thing.

· Feminism means that a woman has to choice of a career. If this means she decides she wants to be a homemaker, that is fine and no one should criticize her for it. Feminism also means that if the husband wants to be the homemaker, that is okay too. Then of course the wife leaves him because she’s making more money than him, and women are biologically coded to go for men of higher status and earning power, as these are the best assurances of survival for her children. But that’s okay too. And if some men who’ve had four wives depart, and lacking status or money never get a date on Saturday night, and so spend their lives at the computer writing up blogs that three people read, that’s okay too. But that doesn’t mean if those said men have to like it. And that’s also okay. Everything is okay as long as it feels good, which may be why society is breaking down. But that’s also okay.

0230 GMT January 23, 2012

Further adventures with Microsoft Word 2010. So editor has been spending every available moment the last ten days formatting and spell-checking the new reference book, and of course, on long, technical documents you can’t expect the Word 2010 spell-checker to do much. It is a weak creature at the best of times, with the spelling ability of an autistic kindergartener, though possibly we insult the intelligence of kindergarteners. Anyway, when the spell-checker was working on Brazil, it informed the Editor that a Russian dictionary was not loaded. When asked to spell check Central and South America, Editor was repeatedly informed that no Portuguese dictionary was installed. Doing France and the French-speaking African states got the message that Editor really needed to load the Spanish (Bolivia) dictionary. Then while doing the English entries, spell-checker again demanded the Spanish (Bolivia) dictionary. When the Editor refused to comply – you don’t calm down a crack addict by giving him heroin – spell-checker said for Spanish entries it really, really needed the Swedish dictionary. And when Editor was spell-checking Hungary, the program somberly informed him he needed to load the Slovak dictionary.

One result of all this, as you have perhaps guessed, is that NO words were getting spell-check-corrected. Once in a while spell-check would correctly say “armour” should be spelt “armor”, but then when Editor asked “correct all”, forget correcting all, it wouldn’t correct the very next spelling of “armour”. This is just another episode for what passes as normal in the Editor’s existence.

If he could explain some of this to his students they might stop wondering why, when Editor is walking the corridors at school, he has a look as if his eyes are tightly focused on a point 10-light-years away. They would stop asking why he’s whacked out. He is not whacked out. It’s just the minute you put him next to a computer, the computer gets whacked out. But try convincing them of that. The kids have such faith in their electronic gadgets that when their calculator tells them 2 + 2 equals 5, they will argue with Editor when he says they’ve entered the numbers wrong.

Back to the alleged “real world”, here’s a short news update (family came unexpectedly for dinner, throwing Editor behind schedule on work)…

· Pakistan One hundred retired generals, air marshals, and admirals have signed a petition asking the civilian government to permit former President General Musharraf to return home and contest elections. The general was forced out by the US/UK who wanted a civilian government because they thought (a) dealing with a civilian government looked better; and (b) a civilian government would be more pliable to US pressure to abandon the Taliban. President Musharraf’s problem was he wasn’t a real dictator; he wanted to be loved, so he permitted all sorts of nonsense a real dictator would notever tolerate. So he did get pushed out, and because the civilians, who had been persecuted by him, wanted to persecute him, he went off in voluntary exile.

· Why should he want to return? Well, if he is reelected President that solves the Army’s problem. The Army wants to rule, but from behind the scenes, and a new presidency by the good general would nicely fit the bil. But the civilian government says it will prosecute him for the murder of Mrs. Benazir Bhutto. So the letter by the retired brass is just a gentle hint to the civilian government to get with the program.

· In our opinion, the civilians will not agree. If Mr. Musharraf returns, he will have scores to settle with the PPP, Mrs. Bhutto’s party, which is now ruling. Whether the civilians can get away not agreeing is something that we have to wait and see.

· Muting the war drums The Israeli chief of staff says a strike against Iran is very far off. Iran says it has nothing to say about the return of a US carrier task force to the Gulf because its not an increase in forces the US has maintained for many years, and that in any case it has no intention of closing Hormuz.

· Don’t ask to explain what all this means. Our readers are sane, normal human beings, and explaining insanity to sane people is never easy.

· Please read this for our discussion tomorrow http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9031478/America-overcomes-the-debt-crisis-as-Britain-sinks-deeper-into-the-swamp.html

· This analysis is a bit mind-boggling because, it says, the US financial crisis was never as bad as being out. US banks were never in as much trouble as believed. Further, US has been successfully deleveraging – that means getting rid of bad debt, paying down other debt, and reducing the amount of debt overall. Deleveraging is needed before we can get growth again. By contrast to the US, the Euros are in really bad shape and it may take the UK, for example, a generation to deleverage.

· Further, the article says US may be raising interest rates soon, and they may end up in the 2-4% range, something which will be an enormous shock to the bond and currency markets.

0230 GMT January 22, 2012

Correction: George Romney was head of American Motors, the Number 4 manufacturer, not General Motors. While our point about his pay remains valid, we’re surprised readers did not pounce on this major faux pas of ours. It remained to a much younger person who corrected us during the course of the conversation. So maybe we don’t have any old-timers readers of the blog because no one familiar with American autos during the US’s industrial heyday would have failed to see our mistake.

· XL Keystone is actually the second kiss-off for the US and oil The Canadians have made clear their tar sand oil resources are going to get increasingly exploited. Some of that oil may still be coming to the US through existing pipelines. The technicalities such as which pipelines and reversing the flow and so are something we’d have to spend time studying, and that isn’t a priority for Editor right now, so we will leave it to other better informed to comment, if they want. Nonetheless, the Canadians are happy to build new pipelines to the west and to the east coasts. Aside from those who will benefit from the east-west pipelines, another group of Canadians is seeing silver linings in the US rejection of XL Keystone. These people say Canada is way too dependent on a single energy customer – that would be us – and it’s simply good business to diversify. Can’t argue with that.

· But we learn that this is actually the second kiss-off for the US regarding oil. Last year when the president went to visit Ms. Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, he tried to kissy-face with her, offering US technical assistance and investment to help exploit Brazil’s vast – and growing by the year – offshore oil reserves. Ms. Dilma allowed she was anxious to improve relationships with the US, things having become a bit strained when Brazil was led by Lula. But as far as priority for oil was concerned, Brazil was already spoken for: by the Chinese. Apparently the Brazilian state oil company got into a financial jam some time back, and the White Knights came from the west, not the north, to help out.

· But the US can console itself: we’ll always have the America haters to buy oil from, including the Islamic states and Venezuela. And if things get really bad, we can always kissy-face with Iran.

· Of course, we can reasonably ask why are we limiting exploration right here in America. After all, we could be independent of everyone if we wanted, hydrocarbon-wise. And if you’re talking heavy oil, actually America has more of it than anyone in the world. Ah, but exploiting our own resources is not acceptable to our Greens. A peculiar state of affairs indeed.

· By the way the non-partisan Congressional Research Service has released a study saying Congress has the power to rule on Keystone XL because it has power over foreign trade. CRS does studies when requested by any member of Congress. Rep. John Hoeven (R-ND) asked for this study. Proponents of Keystone XL are studying if they can get a Congressional vote forcing the President to approve the pipeline. http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/205579-report-congress-can-require-keystone-pipeline-approval

· Yowzers, the Brits are gone crackers If you think our courts sometimes hand down weird decisions, take a look at Britain and feel better. The story we are about to summarize for you is at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/9029792/Bigamist-wins-family-life-human-rights-case.html

· So, you have one foreign gent, who marries in England and is granted permission to stay on that business. He does various criminal things and is arrested, then he does selling cocaine and gets three years. He serves half the sentence and is prepped for deportation for the drug offence, under UK rules.

· Stop! Says our petty criminal. I cannot be deported because I am in a loving relationship with a British woman and I will be deprived of my right to a family life. This lady is not his wife. She looks very cute in the newspaper photograph, so we forgive her. (Good thing Editor never became a judge.) The British court says “we can’t deprive the man of his right to a family life,” so the deportation is ruled no-go by the court.

· But, get this. The court gave its decision even after learning that the said gent was in fact married to the said cute lady, without bothering to get a divorce from his first wife. Thus, he was not in a loving relationship but actually married and committing bigamy at that.

· This is a definite head-banger. Please excuse Editor while he indulges.

· This case comes right on the heels of another. There’s this imam who is described as Osama’s right-hand man in the UK. He lives in the Sceptered Isle because he was given political asylum after being tortured in Jordan and escaping from the clutches of the authorities. Bad move people, because after he got to UK, he began preaching hatred and violence against the country that gave him asylum. Meanwhile, like any decent Brit, he was drawing income support from the state. It took the British government years to get the courts to deport him. But then the European court told UK the man cannot be deported.

· Why? Well, one argument he used to prevent his deportation from UK was that he would be tortured if he was returned to Jordan, and this violated his rights. So the British government got the Jordanians to promise he would be properly treated. But the Euro court says this is not good enough, because the Jordanians will put him on trial using evidence tortured out of other people. So because the Jordanians may use evidence from people it has tortured to try this man for his alleged involvement in terror in Jordan, the Brits have to keep this man in their country.

· The Brits are raving angry, but it’s unclear what they can do about this because they are members of the European court and bound by its decisions.

· Maybe the famed British SAS can kidnap the man and release him in Brussels and let the Euros take care of him since they don’t want him going back to Jordan.

0230 GMT January 21, 2012

· So what do make of George Romney, father of our boy Mitt? We learn when he was head of GM is 1960, he made $200,000 a year, $1.4-million in today’s money. He refused a bonus of $100,000. For our younger readers, a bit of history. General Motors was the largest industrial company in the world. During George Romney’s time, it employed more than 600,000 workers – the population of the US in 1960 was 165-million compared to about 315-million today. The maximum tax rate was 91%. Please repeat that to yourself: ninety.one.percent. A person with taxable income of $400,000 took home $36,000 of that, whereas a person with a taxable income of $200,000 took away $50,000 of that. So did people stop working because in a perverse way the more they made the less they got to keep? Were jobs not created because the financial rewards were so pathetic? Well, oddly enough, 1960 was about the peak of America’s economic golden years.

· So was George Romney anti-capitalist? Was he secretly a member of the 99%, a sheep in wolf’s clothing? Did he espouse socialism and income redistribution? Was he anti-American? We don’t know since we never met him, but we doubt he was anything except a true capitalist.

· We bring this up because there are a powerful lot of very confused Americans out there, who think any restraint in enriching themselves is anti-capitalist. A perfect exponent of this school of belief is George’s son Mitt, who can brush off $375,000 in speaking fees in the same tone as you and I might when we find loose change recovered from the sofa, and who thinks his multi-million dollar annual income is justified because he “takes risks” and he “creates value”. His father, on the other hand, actually produced goods and actually provided decent jobs to a whacking great number of people.

· Editor needs to be clear, here because he tends to speak in short-hand and readers often misunderstand his position. He is not saying “Mitt is a bad man,” or “Mitt is not a Christian”, or “Don’t vote for Mitt”, or “vote for Obama”. Nor is he saying the top tax rate on the 1% should be 91%. He is simply saying that capitalism does not equal greed, and nor does greed make you a capitalist. Greed makes you simply a fat pig, and you know what we do fat pigs in America. We eat them and go “yummy”.

Reader Tacman’s musing on US carriers and the current Iran situation

The letters to us are very compressed because Tacman and Editor are going over familiar ground, to them, anyway. Nonetheless, its not difficult to figure out what Tacman is saying, and its instructive. The exchange starts with reader Chris Raggio forwarding a picture of the attack carriers Lincoln and Stennis together, and asking Tacman if this signifies the possibility of action against Iran. Below is Tacman’s 2-part reply, the second building on the first.

Part I

· It comes to mind that the USN releases info rather up to date concerning events, unlike the UK which releases it long after it means anything, BUT, I also remember a friend (former navy surface warfare officer) laughing at any USN article, saying that a measure of BS and mis-timing is mixed in.This pic is of Lincoln and Stennis (blew it up to read the deck numbers), but neither appears to actually be in the Arabian sea ...based on the deck loadout of aircraft ...neither are conducting active air ops, but they're set up to immediately launch air intercept, AWAC and rescue recovery. So, they're in a safe, but otherwise alert location ...West Indian Ocean is my guess, because both were listed as 5th fleet then 7th fleet at the same time. (Tacman refers to a picture released by the US Navy showing the two carriers in question together; we will not speculate on the US Navy’s purposes.

· Where they are right now is anyone’s guess. Stennis is due back in the US in Feb/March and Lincoln is covering for Washington opposite NK and china, both being a bit rowdy right now. Technically 2-3 carriers aren't needed to conduct offensive ops vs. Iran. We have several large AF bases in the area that can launch any moment with no warning ...and bunker buster bombs are primarily AF weapons, not Navy ...which leaves the carrier the diminished task of Hormuz security ops, not nuke strike ops. And honestly, if we were planning a strike, no responsible admiral would have their carrier in the Persian Gulf anyway.

Part II

· I agree, this did feel different, and still smells a bit too. When 3-CVN get within a couple days travel from each other then i get nervous. Oh, BTW, in last email I meant E. Indian Sea, my bad. Reading more stuff, Lincoln and Stennis passing each other in Arabian Sea. Stennis transiting to 7th. The border between 5th and 7th gets blurry sometimes, maybe they moved it to the tip of India instead of the W. side of Sumatra?

· I calculate all three are right now within 3-days of each other, still a nervous position. The photo of the Lincoln / Stennis may be dated wrong. It happens a lot, and I use photo dating only to nail down where someone was within 2-3 days, helpful for getting a general grip on locations, bad for exact estimates.

· Thinking.... things are good to go for a strike. It's difficult to read if/when because of all the media clutter and mixed messages. Getting a current load out on AF resources in the area is nigh impossible, but don't doubt the B2's are on standby in Missouri. Technically carriers can strike from 1-2 days travel, outside the theater, because of refueling and cruise missiles ...so until a CVN is spotted a week out from theater, stay nervous ...until, say, the Stennis pops up at Singapore, Hong Kong or Australia. They still have 2-months to go, and usually they spend the last transiting home, so they still have a month of tom-foolery to get into.

· BTW, I heard scuttle-butt that the French CVN is heading out for the Indian Ocean in the spring, to arrive in concert with the HMS Daring. Trouble?

Editor’s professional opinion

We’re saying “professional opinion” because this is what we’d say if we were getting paid for our analysis

Neither the United States nor Israel will at this time make a strike against Iran. But if Iran should make a mistake due to the enormous amount of economic, diplomatic, and military pressure that is being imposed on it, neither US or Israel will hesitate to attack. Is Us working to provoke a rash Iranian action, justifying retaliation. Yes and no, Yes in that some people are definitely hoping for a reaction. No because others really do believe – wrongly in our opinion – that Iran can be brought to the negotiating table. This is an example of people with diverse final objectives agreeing on a strategy that serves their different purposes.

For this analysis, which needs no more than the 110 words used, you are paying nothing because you put up with the Editor’s daily whining and moaning. But as we speak, services who do this for a living are charging from hundreds of dollars to tens of thousands of dollars to their clients while saying precisely nothing in a thousand to ten thousand words.

0230 GMT January 20, 2012

Folks, just to warn you: college is starting next week and your faithful editor will not have as much time to update till semester end last week of April. (yes, yes, we can hear some of our readers saying “that is supposed to be bad news?”)

· There’s hope, people: we aren’t the only duds around The Germans have figured out that solar power is not an economical proposition for the. Reason? The sun doesn’t shine a whole lot in Germany, and particularly not in the winter. (Er, this is news?). This has become an issue because Germany heavily subsidizes solar energy, taxing everyone something like 3.5-cents a kilowatt hour to subsidize solar.

· Just to remind ourselves? Why exactly are the Germans doing this? Well, being a conscientious lot the Germans want to reduce global warming, and they want to do away with the N-power plants. There may be a point to reducing global warming, but getting rid of N-power, which is the safest – and cleanest – of all base-load power, is strictly an emotion-driven exercise.

· Be that as it may, the Germans have started to run out of money, so many people are installing solar, not that anyone is getting much use from the solar given the above-mentioned climate conditions. You get a 20-year subsidy in Germany for installing solar. So this money issue is forcing them to reconsider the deal. And Der Spiegel tells us that the cost of eliminating a ton of carbon is 5-euros if you insulate your attic, 20-euros if you use natural gas instead of coal, and 500-euro if you use solar. And as for doing away with N-power, all the solar installed in Germany – and it’s a lot – equates to two N-power plants. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,809439,00.html

· Oh the irony of it all To make up their electricity deficit, the Germans have been importing N-generated power from France and the Czech Republic, and from a back-up oil-fired plant in Austria. Doubtless the Germans see the irony of this oil: they don’t want N-power, but its okay to buy N-power from other countries; they want to go green, so let the Austrian burn oil so that Germany can keep the lights on. In this American and German greens are BFFs, because rather than buy from Canada that is produced, transported, and refined in accordance with strict regulations, it’s better to buy oil from dictators in Venezuela and the Mid East, and let the Africans mess up their ecologies to send us oil – if we don’t see the pollution, it doesn’t exist. Just by the way, we’re told that in Nigeria’s oil producing Delta region its possible to set streams on fire because the environment is so heavily polluted. Did we hear the greens screaming to shut down oil imports from Nigeria? Editor didn’t, but then he’s quite deaf, maybe our readers heard them. Lets not talk about the corruption and the way ordinary people are shafted in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Chad, Gabon (not as bad as the rest), and Cameroon.

· Meanwhile 9/11 hijackers came from Saudi so we bombed and invaded Afghanistan. Makes perfect sense, people, if you admit we are now all part of Moron Nation. And we’re working with Saudi Arabia to bring democracy to Syria. Right after the Saudis helped our allies the Bahrainis squash their citizens’ demand for fair representation. BTW, have you ever heard of doctors being arrested and jailed, and likely to get substantial prison terms, for providing medical aid to demonstrators beaten and shot by the authorities? Aren’t doctors under one of the most scared oaths of all humankind, to help those who need help regardless of their political beliefs? Not, apparently, in Bahrain, that great ally of ours. These are some of the examples we had in mind when yesterday we said that America’s demand for imported oil has created a perverted diplomacy and defense policy. But we digress. Back to the Germans.

· So the Germans have already paid out $135-billion in solar energy subsidies. A bit of comparison here. Germany’s GDP is about a fifth of ours. So its like us paying $700-billion in subsidies.

· Mea culpa and all that Editor has always been impressed by Germany’s solar push. It has 20-gigawatts worth of solar installed, comparing it to America we’d have to install a tenth of our total generating capacity in solar. But what Editor didn’t know, as he doesn’t follow non-oil economics/politics, is that typically the actual efficiency of that 20-Gigawatts is two gigawatts, and you get the power when the sun feels like it, not when you need it.

· Please to understand we are not bashing solar US situation is quite different from Germany’s, because we have large parts of the country where you get probably more sunshine than anyone wants. (How can you have too much sunshine? When the temps climb in to the 80s, 90s, 100s, and 110s). But what astonishes us is that the Germans did not figure out their Sorry We Have No Sunshine Today state of affairs before they spent all that money. It’s still not too late: North Africa is a hop, skip, and jump away, and you can’t get more sunshiny than North Africa. The US and Russia run transmission cables thousands of kilometers, it’s not rocket science to get the power to Germany.

· A bit of history regarding German weather Readers who are real old timers (like in their sixties and seventies) will remember the heck of a time the Luftwaffe had with its F-104s, losing about a third of their total purchase to accidents in the 1960s and 1970s. This was after losing a third of their F-84s, the first combat aircraft inducted into the new Luftwaffe. There were three reasons for that. First, the Starfighter was designed as an air superiority fighter, like the MiG-21, not as a fighter-bomber which is the way the German used it. Yes, the G model was developed as a fighter-bomber, but it was a more “we have this plane what do we do with it because the USAF doesn’t want it” kind of thing”. The Germans, like everyone except the US, used a low-level attack doctrine. Combine the weather and the aircraft being used for something it was not optimized, and you had a lot of crashes. Second, the Germans lost an entire generation of fighter pilots between 1945 and 1956, before they got to fly again. And the men who were part of the new Luftwaffe were used to the casual way you operate in war – or used to, anyway. To understand how the Germans flew – Ole, Red Baron! – read this http://yarchive.net/mil/german_f104_losses.html But last, something not widely known. The Germans kept their F-104s in the open, exposed to the weather. A big no-no for something as sophisticated and its own way delicate like the F-104.

0230 GMT January 19, 2012

· Fitch saying Greece will default doesn’t mean anything Fitch is not saying that the Greek bail-out will fail. It well could, but that is a separate issue. Fitch’s point is that a write-down of Greek debt, which is in the works, is in itself a default. And Fitch is correct. You cannot pay back 35 cents on the dollar – which is the latest figure – and then pretend it’s a debt restructure. It’s a restructure AFTER default, and just the negotiations to give investors less than they are owed means a default is in the works.

· Fitch’s point is not an academic one In case of default, those who insured Greek debt have to pay up. The insurers are the ones who are dancing around claiming this is not a default. We’re not international financial lawyers, so we can’t say how that will work out in court, where one supposes the argument will be headed. The law is not about common sense; nonetheless, common sense says Greece is about to default.

· Iceland proves default is not the end of the world In 2007, Iceland defaulted on its debts and let its big banks fail. Inflation went to 18%, the krona fell by 50%, the national debt went from something like 40% of GDP (this figure needs to be checked) to 120% because the Icelanders insisted on maintaining their safety net, GDP fell by 12%, unemployment jumped, etc etc etc.

· Fast forward to 2011. Iceland bonds are oversubscribed, debt has fallen to 80% of GDP, exports are booming, and employment is recovering http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/iceland-the-broken-economy-that-got-out-of-jail-2349905.html

· It’s still not the days of wine and roses because Iceland’s mortgages are variable with inflation and a lot of people have lost on their houses. But the article we’re quoting notes that Ireland assumed full responsibility for all debts, its debt went from 25% of GDP to 100%, and aside from the economy being shot to heck, Ireland has to pay a premium to insure its debt. By the way, in Ireland declaring bankruptcy does not absolve you of your mortgage. You’ve lost your house, too bad, you still owe the money to the bank. Tough people, the Irish. And also by the way, you may be surprised that the Irish are not doing any whining and moaning like us Americans. The Irish say they lived beyond their means, they now have to pay the price, and that’s all there is to it. You have to admire them and you have to admit that Americans, who used to be considered THE tough ones, are now as bad as any socialist Euro when it comes to feeling entitled and to blaming someone else for their problems. We’re not talking about just the economic crisis here.

· Where in the Capitalist Bible does it say a lender has to be indemnified from risk? We’ve often attacked the US for claiming it is a capitalist country when actually it is not. In capitalism, a lender is supposed to assess his risk in lending money to me, charge a rate of interest accordingly, and he is entitled to secure his loan the best way he can.

· But if I can’t, he has to accept the loss. His money is not sacred above all things. He cannot, in capitalism, go to the government for help, and then have the government reach into the pockets of all folks without their consent to make the lender whole. This is crony capitalism because the government uses public money to help its cronies get richer and richer, while the rest of us futz along like we’re still earning in 1970.

· Keystone XL Pipeline The opponents of the pipeline are endangering the national security of the US, and to us that is not acceptable. That the greens have good intentions is no excuse. Aside from the road to The Very Hot Place being paved with good intentions, by Editor’s definition when you put your pet agenda ahead of the nation’s agenda on a critical national security issue, you are NOT excused because you have good intentions.

· Two points. The first is an observation made by the Canadian Prime Minister. He said it is not Canada’s intention to become a national park for the United States.

· The second point is that the US is dependent on imported oil. To obtain that oil, and protect the oil lanes, we have a completely perverted and dysfunctional foreign and defense policy which among other things costs us huge amounts of money and ultimately weakens our national security.

· This is not a criticism of the greens alone, because it has become a national trait: Americans simply push their own agendas without doing an overall cost-benefit analysis. It doesn’t matter what you decide about Keystone XL, there will be winners and losers. The question is not which side musters more political shouting power, but what is the net benefit to the country. Yes, there are potential environmental negatives to the pipeline. And yes, in peacetime the oil will flow to American refineries, from which some may be exported and some may be used in the US. But in case of emergency that oil is all available to the US, which gives us the freedom to refuse to deal with unpleasant regimes and saves us money because we have less need to protect the sea lanes. To the greens that is worth nothing at all. All that matters to them is their agenda, regardless of what the ultimate cost to the country – their country – may be.

0230 GMT January 18, 2012

· Pakistan Editor has been feeling guilty that he is not making more of an effort to explain what is happening in Pakistan. As Editor has confessed before, he finds the internal politics of any country to be extremely snooze-making. This includes the politics of his adopted country; and as for the politics of his home country, Editor finds the politics of Pitcairn Island more fascinating. Pitcairn, which is famous for having been settled by the mutineers of HMS Bounty, has a population of 50. So as long as you keep in mind what the Editor is saying is from the media – and the Pakistan media, like the Indian, is at the best of times about as cogent as Tarzan’s ape discussing black hole theory – Editor is prepared to summarize the situation.

· A four-way struggle for power is underway in Pakistan, between the civilian government, the Supreme Court, and the army. The Supreme Court wants to know why the civilian Prime Minister had not initiated corruption enquires against the President, from the days he was only husband to Mrs. Benazir Bhutto and of steller stature when it came to taking bribes. (In America we have legalized contributions of unlimited amount to our politicians, and we call them “campaign contributions” and not bribes, but people, let’s face facts, we are just as corrupt as any government in the world. Of course, America’s saving grace is that the ordinary citizen never has to pay a bribe to get his work done, the corruption is at the top levels. Anyway, we digress.)

· We aren’t going to go into the details of why the Pakistan Supreme Court, which for decades believing that discretion is the better part of valor, has avoiding antagonizing the government in power, but of a sudden has decided it needs to do its job as the last resort of people seeking justice. Suffice it to say, the Supreme Court is perfectly within its power to insist that corruption inquiries against the President be initiated, and within its power to threaten the PM for contempt for having failed to heed its orders. The PM has not open inquires because first, he is in power thanks to the Prez, and in the sub-continent, once you start taking people down for corruption, it ends only when every single politician is in jail, and that’s not particularly helpful either.

· Meanwhile, as is known, the PM and the Prez appealed to the US to squash the Army. Why are the PM and Prez is conflict with the Army? Well, in Pakistan it always ends up that way because the Army is the real power. It is willing to permit a civilian façade as long as the civilians behave themselves. But here’s the problem: the PM, for whatever reason, is sick and tired of kissing Army boots. He feels he was elected by the people, he should be responsible to the people, and the Army should stay in the barracks and play golf. This is all fine in theory, but this puts one in mind of Stalin’s aphorism about how many divisions does the Pope have.

· Now, these days even in Pakistan you cannot repress the people forever. But the government of President Zardari and PM Gilani is wildly unpopular because it’s both corrupt AND ineffective. One or the other is acceptable, but not both. So that’s how you get the fourth party to the power struggle, the opposition politicians who want fresh election, because they feel its their turn to loot the country.

· Okay. So the Army is madder than heck that the PM has these weird ideas that he’s in charge, and it is determined to see the Prez and PM bite the dust for daring to go to the US and seeking America’s help in overthrowing the Army Chief, and by extension, the generals. The generals are a lot more sophisticated than the military dictators of yore – Musharraf, Zia, Yahya, and Ayub. They know times have changed. They will do a coup if they must, but they prefer to get their way by remaining behind the scenes, though honestly in Pakistan the remaining behind the scenes is not even a fig leaf. So the Army has argued – behind the scenes – to the Supreme Court that (a) the Prez and PM are guilty of treason for asking the US to step in; and (b) what is the supreme Court going to do about being disrespected by the PM, who is not moving to obey the court on the corruption inquiries.

· The PM is appealing to the politicians: we all hang together or hang separately. Brave man, he is actually standing up to the Army though the consequences can be most severe. The Pakistan Army has a habit of overthrowing sassy Prime Ministers. In one case, Prime Minister ZA Bhutto, father of the murdered Benazir Bhutto, the Army executed the PM after a mock trial, a move that still reverberates unpleasantly in India and in Pakistan, where executing your Prime Minister is definitely not considered proper. Interestingly, Mr. Bhutto got into an identical tussle with his Army Chief, Zia-ul-Haq, over who was the ruler of Pakistan. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif got into a tussle with General Musharraf, and we know who lost there. But Mushy Bhai, as he is known in India, is not a vindictive sort. He’s a live-and-let live, so Nawaz did not get his neck stretched.

· Well, the Pakistani politicians are divided. One lot says we have to stick together, it’s now or never. The other lot says any ally is handy if it helps us to come to power, and if we have to sup with the Army with a short spoon, so be it. The Army is hoping the Supreme Court impeaches the PM, which removes him from the stage. Our information is that some of the army generals are so angry they will gladly see the PM hang, but all of them understand this cannot be part of the agenda at this time. They understand an impeached PM loses his power, and spends the next 10 years of his life in fighting the charges. The ISI, which maintains its own counsel, needs to say nothing. If the PM gets too out of hand, if he is not removed by the Supreme Court, well, another suicide bombing like the one that killed Mrs. Bhutto when she looked set to become PM is easily arranged. You don’t cross the Army, but the people you definitely don’t want putting you on their “Do Not Invite To Tea” list is the ISI. This is a very tough bunch of cookies. They’ve been killing people since Afghanistan I, when they did it with the full blessing of Washington, and after thirty years they have acquired, shall we say, a certain expertise.

· So how this all comes out, we can’t say. But if we were bookies, we would not be putting our money on the Prez and PM. The Army/ISI will not compromise after the formers attempts to get the US to remove the Army/ISI Chiefs, and they cannot compromise, because as happened with General Zia and PM Bhutto, it’s a zero sum game. If the PM wins – very unlikely – the army’s power could well be broken for good.

· In conclusion, we might note what happened to Mrs. Bhutto. The US wanted a democratic face on the Pakistan Government post 2001. The army was playing its usual double game – and as an Indian Editor has no hesitation in saying the Pakistan Army has done very, very well at this game, taking the US for whatever it could and conceding very little in return – so the US wanted a pliable government. Also, it was hugely embarrassing to be dealing with a bunch of Army dictators: the 2000s were not the 1960s or even the 1980s. Mrs. Bhutto was, to westerners, an attractive personality and she had her constituency in London and in Washington. So she was anointed Washington’s Viceroy to Pakistan. (In this Feminist correct age we don’t use “Vicerine”, who generally has been the wife of the Viceroy.) That was bad enough as far as the Army/ISI was concerned, but this amazingly naïve woman made it much, much worse when she began openly talking about the need for civilian control and how the army needed sorting out, all before she even landed back in Pakistan from which she had been informally exiled by Musharraf. Well, the Army wasted no time in getting rid of her. The current President acutely realizes his vulnerability. If it’s a question of his life, he’s willing to quit in return for immunity. Which the Army is not willing to give.

· The Prime Minister now – Editor at least doesn’t know what’s gotten into the man. He is aware he could be murdered ir sent to jail for many years. But so far he’s not backing down. You don’t know whether to admire the man for his courage or condemn him for his foolishness.

· In the late 1980s, Editor got into a tussle with his government. He was accused of treason, ironically by the very same bunch of people who were lining up to sell themselves to the United States, something to which Editor was taking objection. Well, Editor has never had a martyr complex or a false sense of his own importance. When the heat in the kitchen got too intense, Editor quietly packed his backpack, told everyone he was going to visit his family in the ‘States, and never went back. It’s up to the Pakistan PM to decide if his stand is of any importance to Pakistan’s future. For himself, Editor knows had he stayed and fought it out, India would not have noticed or cared any more than a buffalo notices or cares about a fly. Given the choice between sleeping in a jail cell for 14 years and sleeping in his bed with his four pillows and his teddy bears, well, it wasn’t really a choice. The politicians, generals, bureaucrats are still 100% sell-outs when it comes to India’s national security, wimps and traitors not so much by commission as by omission. But the country has done just fine without the Editor.

0230 GMT January 17, 2012

· Insurgents attack Fallujah and are beaten back. This follows several attacks against Shias, including pilgrims. We’d like to ask the insurgents something. Sunnis constitute 20% of Iraq. What precisely is it Sunnis gain by attacking Shias, who are not just 60% of the population, but control the instruments of power? The point of an insurgency is to get something that you cannot get by other means. What is it the outcome the Sunni insurgents are hoping for? Is it their own state? If so, they have only to ask, and the Shias will be very happy to be permanently rid of them. Is it to take power at the center? But how can they? When the three provinces of the Ottoman Empire that make up modern Iraq were in play, the Turk overlords – who were Sunni – saw to it that their co-religionists were in power. When Iraq became independent, the Sunnis still controlled the instruments of power and repressed the Shias. But that is now history, thanks to the US invasion of 2003. There is simply no way in the modern world a minority can gain rule over a majority when the majority has the guns and the money.

· The Sunnis might want to consult the Tamil insurgents in Sri Lanka about what happens when the majority decides to get rid of you. For years the Sinhala majority was half-hearted about fighting the Tamils. Then starting around 2008 it all changed. The majority determined they were going to crush the rebellion, and they embarked on a massive military expansion, and ended up killing every single insurgent who did not surrender. Mercifully, in Sri Lanka we did not see the savage attacks by insurgents or the security forces on civilians just trying to go about their business. The Sri Lankans managed to retain enough of a sense of shared identity that there was no ethnic cleansing as took place in Iraq before the US surge.

· Do the insurgents not care that they are just providing carte blanche to the Shias who want to eliminate the Sunnis? This is what was happening until the US surge kicked in. The Sunnis staged attack after attack on the Shias, who retaliated; with the result Sunnis got massacred. The US surge stopped the Shia from launching a full-fledged holocaust against the Sunnis. But the US is now gone. So who will protect the Sunnis?

· Yes, we understand that the Sunni Arabs are financing the insurgents not least because many Arab countries have substantial Shia populations who seek encouragement from the fall of Iraq to the Shias. But do Iraqi Sunnis not realize they cannot win this game? The Shias are neither peaceful nor merciful. They are preparing to strike back. They WILL kill every Sunni they find if this nonsense does not stop. And this time there’s no US to protect them.

· Next time, captain, focus on sailing your ship, will you? The captain says the rocks he hot were uncharted. People say the rocks are well known to scuba divers, and this being the coast of Italy, well-travelled for at least five thousand years if not longer, uncharted rocks are unlikely. There is a theory that the computer system, which is supposed to sound an alarm if the ship deviated from course, went down because of an electrical failure. It will take time to find out. But what is not in doubt is the caprtain deliberately deviated from course. Why?

· Till yesterday the story was the captain, who’d been having a bit of a nip every now and then, wanted to say hello to the former captain of the ship, who lives on the island. So he deviated from his route and went too close. This is peculiar enough, but now Italy’s Corriere della Sera has come up with a story that must make it into Ripley’s Believe it or Not if it is true.

· In addition to the captain wanting to say hello, the ship’s maître de asked the captain to blow the ship’s whistle for the benefit of the maître de’s 82-year old dad. Maître de also lives on the island To ensure the whistle was heard, cappy decided to go in closer. Maitre de’s sister, who lives on the island said on her Facebook page 30-minutes before the accident that the ship would pass really close to the island.

· So, like you, we’re scratching our head, when in the UK Daily Mail we read the retired captain saying he was not on the island and there was no question of anyone wanting to hail him. He has gone to the prosecutor to complain he is being dragged into something with which he has nothing to do. If so, it looks as if the captain deviated as a favor to his maître de, which makes the whole thing even more peculiar.

· So now we’re scratching both sides of our head. If we lived on one of the new planets that have been discovered, we could simultaneously scratch both sides of both heads. Can’t be done, you’ll say. How silly. If we lived on one of those planets we’d have four arms, obviously.

0230 GMT January 16, 2012

Flash: Orbat.com has discovered that Mr. Newt Gingrich is a British Monarchist! As evidence, we present you the single fact that he speaks English. English, as we all know, is the language of England. And England is the country we revolted against a few years ago. What does this suggest? Yes, that Newt is an agent of Her Majesty Elizabeth II. Good Queen Liz, you may recall, belongs to the House of Windsor. What you may not recall, the House of Windsor is actually a euphemism for the House of Hanover. During World War I, when the Brits and the Germans were having it out, the royal family thought it politically expedient to play down their German roots and take a name that is as English as spanking. (Goodness! Can’t believe we said that! And this a family blog too!) Orbat.com does not need to point out that it was King George III of Hanover who America rebelled against. And he spoke English as his first language! What further proof do we need The Newt’s perfidy, this serpent America nurtured at its bosom (or should that be bosoms? Editor can never get this right). What is worse, The Newt apparently did his doctoral thesis on “Belgian Education Policy in the Congo 1945-1960.” In Belgium they…they…they…sorry, having a hard time getting this out…they speak French and they eat cheese. L'horreur! L'horreur!” (Thank you, Google Translate). And France, as we all know, is the home of the Marquis de Sade, and we all known (or should have known) about him and spanking! It follows without any doubt that if Newt becomes US Prez, we will see the restoration of the British monarchy – after all, technically we are still in rebellion – and the installation of Newt as George VII, we will be forced to speak French and eat cheese. As for the spanking – please people, why this sudden prurience on the part of our readers? Don’t we have enough serious things to discuss?

· The US Enrichment Corporation: This is what passes for politics in America Washington Post in its Business section January 15, 2012 has a story about the US Enrichment Corporation. Once upon a time the US government used to do uranium enrichment. Then the business got privatized. Enter USEC, which thanks to technology which is now obsolete has lost 95% of its market value in the last five years. In a capitalist country, the merciful thing would be to shoot USEC and be done with it.

· But America is not a capitalist country, despite what the establishment propaganda would have you believe. It is a crony capitalist state, where the capitalists team up with the government (which they own) to enrich themselves by tilting the playing field for their benefit. So what does a company that has failed economically in America do? Two words “Government Bailout!” Otherwise known as “Feed the poor starving hog at the public trough.” USEC wants a $2-billion loan guarantee to modernize, and the technology it wants to use is experimental.

· So the GOP is fighting this proposal tooth and nail…oh, wait, that’s happening in an alternate universe. In our universe, the GOP wants the loan guaranteed. President Obama, burned over Solyndra, is hesitant, not least because his advisers tell him the project is problematic. The entire Ohio congressional delegation is pushing for the guarantee. Knowing nil about US domestic politics, we looked up Wikipedia. Ohio has one Democratic senator and one Republican. Of its 18 House seats, 14 are held by the GOP. We learn John “TearMaster” Boehner, the leader of the House, is from Ohio. The GOP is not bothered that it daily slams Mr. Obama on Solyndra and other such projects, it believes USEC is worth of a government bailout.

· Editor needs to be clear on one point He is not defending Democrats, President Obama, or Solyndra. He doesn’t know anything about Solyndra, except that it’s a Bush Junior project which President Obama took over and for which he thus become responsible. Editor is simply saying that this is the state of American politics: 100% hypocrisy, 0% integrity, and let America take the hindmost.

· The only way things are going to change is if the American people revolt. Which is as likely as Editor getting a Saturday date. Instead of wasting energy on American politics, Editor is thinking maybe this is a good time to learn to crochet. Crocheting at least is a useful activity. American politics? Not so much.

0230 GMT January 15, 2012

So here it is Saturday again, and your Editor is spending the evening as he does every evening, at his computer, today slowly going blind trying to proof Complete World Armies 2012. Adobe Acrobat, which at times functions like Adobe Dingbat, is famous for displaying your converted document exactly as it is. That is the point, of course. So Editor’s Acrobat X has decided to show dashed underlines as if they are in bold. Acrobat has apparently taken what the Americans euphemistically call an “Executive Decision” that the Editor needs bolded dashed underlines, which makes the heads treated thus stand out more than the headings with double- and single-underlining. Which is precisely NOT the point of underlining, a 3^rd level underline should look like 3^rd level, not 1^st level. But the Dingbat apparently doesn’t agree.

· So there they go again US is offering DPRK food aid if the latter will rein in its N-program. For the last 15-years at least, if no longer, US has been “negotiating” with DPRK, giving them this, that, and the other, and DPRK has never once kept its end of the bargain. But that doesn’t stop the US from trying again. Part of the reason for just going on and on repeating failed tactics may be that Americans, as a nation and a race, are severely ADD. It just may be that every three years you have a new set of national security policy makers who know zip-a-loo about the past, and come up with this really great idea: “Let’s negotiate with DPRK”. But where is the stick part of the carrot-and-stick? Why should DPRK keep its word when it knows nothing will happen, and the US will come around soon enough begging to negotiate, and begging to get kicked in its Big Fat Butt.

· And there they go again, again As it always does, when its cornered, Teheran offers to negotiate. The Iran case is a bit different from the DPRK in that the US greatly wants to whack Iran and US offers to negotiate” are simply an attempt to give the wavering members of the anti-Iran coalition another chance to see that negotiations won’t work. Interestingly, this time the west has not immediately said: “Stop! They’re offering to negotiate and we must give them a chance”. But there is a theory that the west will delay its oil embargo in return for “real” concessions from Iran. Big mistake. Iran domestically cannot afford to make ANY concession on its N-program. Its leaders are not suicidal: they know if they continue they MAY get whacked by the US, but if they give up the N-program they WILL get whacked by their own people. There is no incentive anyone can offer Iran that tops the incentive of having a couple of N-warheads, allowing Iran to continue behaving badly without fear of retaliation.

· India freezes Cold Start India is not just the land of a million mutinies, as the Trinidad writer of Indian origin VS Naipul once put it, it is also the land of a million wimps. Ever since India enunciated its Cold Start doctrine, which requires a zero-warning warning attack to punish Pakistan in the event the latter does something egregious like attack Kargil (1999), or India’s parliament (2001), or Bombay (2008), Pakistan has been having conniptions because for the very first time in its independent history, India has openly enunciated an offensive doctrine. So now India has said: “There’s no such thing as Cold Start”. Some will argue that India’s preparations for Cold Start nonetheless continue. Well, don’t hold your breath. Aside from that, Cold Start has a coercive element intended to deter Pakistan from more adventures. While India may still be fitfully going on building its capability, by throwing away the coercive part of the doctrine, India has given Pakistan a free past to attack again and again, as it wishes, and as it has done since the 1980s. Why has India thrown away its coercive diplomacy for zero in return? Well, you see, that’s what we Indians do. When faced with an enemy, we shoot ourselves. That way we spare the enemy from the fear of getting hurt. We are just so unique, polite, and considerate. The US Marine’s unofficial motto – one of them anyway – is “No better friend, no worse enemy.” In India we have inverted that to say “ no worse friend, no better enemy.”

· Now, Editor has been a critic of t