Text Box: Updated 11.12.2007 US Emergency Oil Vulnerability Of US's imports, 30% are from NAFTA and not vulnerable 25% imports come from Mid East/North Africa 14% come from Venezuela 10% come from Nigeria 4% comes from Iraq US Oil Stocks Average around 1.7 billion barrels: including 700-million Strategic Petroleum Reserve and 1040-million barrels commercial (end-June 2007). Assuming a Gulf disruption US would have oil in the SPR alone for 700 days (see below). Assuming a disaster scenario with cut-off of all Gulf and Venezuela oil exports to US, 25% of imports, US could manage for 600 days while leaving 200-million bbl stocks inside the US. Assuming a catastrophic scenario with all imports except Canada stopped, 80%+ of imports, US could manage for 175 days. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve End 2007: 700 million bbl. Maximum 727 million bbl. Arabian/Persian Gulf Shutdown 12% of US oil demand passes through the Gulf; i.e. 2.4 million bbl/day. 17% of Euro demand passes through the Gulf. 78% of Japan demand passes through the Gulf. Alternatives Approximately 40% of Gulf flow could be rerouted through land pipelines bypassing Gulf. The Yanabu Piepline can carry 5-million bbl/day and the new UAE pipeline scheduled for completion in 2008 can carry 1.5-million/bbd. If shared in proportion to existing usage, US would get 900,000-bbl/day. 0.5 million bbl/day could be saved by stopping supply to electricity generators; only 3% of electricity comes from oil and there is  ample. spare generation capacity to make up for the shortfall. US would then be short by 1-million bbl/day. Data: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/pgulf.html