Canadian Tar Sands

v.1.1 November 23, 2006

300 billion barrels [Recoverable with today's technology] Cost $20-25/bbl.

1 trillion barrels more with technology under development

Production of ~1.5 million/bbl/day building up to 5 million/bbl/day by 2020.

Problem: open pit mining destroys the forest under which the tar sands lie. New technologies use steam injection to liquefy sands in situ and minimize environmental damage. Currently, however, 0.7 bbl of natural gas is needed to extract 1 bbl of oil. Figure is expected to improve. N-power is being considered to generate steam. All processes use enormous amounts of water, which is itself becoming more valuable.

US Oil Shales

2 trillion barrels.
Upto 750 billion bbl with near-term technology, 25-gal/ton shale. Can be produced at less cost than Canadian tar sands.

Problem: severe scarcity of water in US west where oil shales are located. US extremely sensitive to environmental issues within its own country. The point at which expensive oil outweighs people's environmental concerns is not known. As with Canadian oil sands, environmentalists point out conservation eliminates need for this new resource.

Reference
http://resourcescommittee.house.gov/Press/reports/energy/
increased_domsupply.htm 

All these figures change drastically with oil at $50, $80, and $105/bbl.