Oil Reserves: Hormuz Closure Scenario

v.1.2 April 1, 2007

 

Approximately 16 million/barrel-per-day moves through Hormuz, approximately 90% of Persian Gulf oil exports. 

 

Assume all 90% except 3 million/bpd excess Yanabu Pipeline is lost due to closure, and Saudi Arabia assigns Yanabu Pipeline throughput to different buyers on pro-rata basis.

 

The figures are for November 2006.

 

 

Country

Million Bbl

Stocks

.70 Gulf Loss

Million Bbl/Day

Days in reserve

USA

1746

1.84

948

Japan

650

3.58

181
ROK 158 1.89 83

Rest OECD

1649

2.11

781

 

Oil in transit at sea is estimated at 500-million barrels as of July 2006.