0300 GMT January 31, 2005

• IRAQ VOTE The Iraq Government says 72% of eligible persons voted in the election. Even if this is an inflated figure, given that many Sunnis could not vote thanks to terrorist intimidation, this is a huge turnout.

• With this vote, 1100 years of Sunni rule come to an end. The Turkish Caliphate put Sunnis in charge of this overwhelmingly Shia region for a reason. As a minority, the Sunnis would have no reason to think of the people as human beings. Better, the Sunnis knew if they did not savagely repress the majority, their power, status, money and their very lives would be taken away from them. They did rather a good job.

• Orbat.com could simply continue with reporting the news. If we wanted to pontificate, we could note that yesterday the face of the entire Muslim world changed. It has been easy for the Muslims to ignore Afghanistan because it remote, poor, and sparsely inhabited. Muslims cannot ignore Iraq.

• But today is a special day for us, and finally we get to conclusively say: We believed in America and we believed in America's desire and ability to spread democracy. We believed in the people of Iraq, and that given a chance, they would embrace democracy with open arms. Since March 2003, we've had to endure the slings and barbs of our ideological opponents. But today we can say to our ideological opponents: we were right and you were wrong. Since, as mature adults we cannot dance around you chanting neener neener neerer razz razz razz boo boo boo, we will do it metaphorically by what for us is a long commentary. For once, the other news can wait till later in the day, and we promise we will carry an update at around 1500 GMT.

• MEDIA AND PUNDITS TAKE YET ANOTHER HIT When we hammer the media, we also should have made clear that the so-called Pundits, or the Talking Heads, or the Chatterati, are equally guilty of deliberately misreporting Iraq. The media - and the Pundits - want responsibility for matters like Abu Gharib. Fair enough. But only if they now accept responsibility for their sheer stupidity in insisting the elections were at least going to be seriously flawed, if not actually fail.

• Stupidity we can forgive. Arrogant stupidity we cannot forgive. Orbat.com demands that any media person or pundit that wrote/chattered about failure in Iraq more than 70% of the time be made to resign.

• This is not a matter where I have my opinion and you have yours, and I was wrong. This is about willful distortion of the reality. Thousands of people have been telling the true story of where Iraq was going. But because they were shut out of the mainstream media, and had to use alternative sources, mainly the Internet, they seldom were heard by the public. If any of the High Negativities of the Media/Pundits had bothered to spend time in Iraq talking to randomly selected locals instead of looking for facts to support their inane presuppositions, then yes, we could say they had a legitimate opinion. Instead, they pushed on America and the world not honest opinion, but propaganda.

• SO TELL US AGAIN HOW THE MUSLIMS ARE NOT READY FOR DEMOCRACY... Had the media and pundits bothered to read western political philosophy in school and college, and to study democracies around they world, they would have learned something so obvious that we at Orbat.com at least cannot understand how anyone with or without education can miss the truth: It is humankind's desire to be free. Wanting freedom has nothing to do with your income level, your education, your race, your religion or your class. You had only to look at India, where even today half the people are illiterate, and half are poor even by the standards of a nation with $500/year per capita, to see that any people(s) not just want democracy, they can handle it with maturity and aplomb. Look at Africa, where within 30 years democracy has become a norm. Mostly, look at Afghanistan, a country that lives by a social code obsolete centuries ago, that is primitive, poor, illiterate, with no experience of democracy. Afghan men may not want their women to walk with uncovered faces outside the home, but they quite calmly accepted their women had a right to vote just as if it was the most natural thing in the world.

• Iraq has held its first meaningfully free election. It was fair - 1000 observers from all over the world have attested to that. It was held despite the threats by insurgents and terrorists. Very little is working in Iraq today, but nonetheless the world community pitched into work alongside Iraqis and by some miracle, conjured up a fair and free election.

• So now can we stop insulting Muslims by pretending they are ignorant little savages who can never understand this great, this grand, this abstruse thing called democracy. Shame on those who took this line.

• AND TELL US AGAIN  HOW DEMOCRACY CANNOT BE IMPOSED... Every person who said America cannot impose its democratic ideals on others, that the impetus has to come from within should now hang their heads in shame. That the world elite said this is to be expected. That so many of the American elite said it is stupid.

• Where did true democracy start? In the United States. Yes, there were limitations because women and African Americans did not have the right to vote till much after the foundation of this Republic. But just the concept that all men, regardless of income, had the right to vote was a revolutionary one.

• The American revolution spread immediately to Old Europe, and one by one the old monarchies and tyrannies came tumbling down. America rather successfully imposed democracy on Japan; it cleaned up Germany's act so that Germans could again have a democracy. America brought democracy to South Korea and Taiwan, and inspired the entire post-colonial world to seek freedom. It is America and America alone that pushed Latin America into true democracy. America worked with Old Europe to democratize Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the new nations on Russia's periphery.

• If today totalitarian states are considered cancers on the body of humanity, it is because the United States directly brought democracy to most of the world - and buddy, don't you forget it.

• IRAN LEADERSHIP GOES PYSCHO The Iranian government belatedly says that the elections in Iraq are a Good Thing, but warns the Americans may not accept the result. They may stage a coup, or do other nasty things to sabotage the new Iraqi democracy.

• Okay children, lets confess to teacher who hasn't taken their medication today. Teacher is not going to point fingers, he is going to let the conscience of the children guide them.

• Uh Oh. Somebody is not putting up their hand. Well, Teacher is not going to point fingers. He is going to wait till that somebody decides to do the right thing.

• NOT! Teacher is going to point his finger squarely at Iran's leadership. If it was irrelevant to the country before, it is positively not  needed now.

• Oh great wise men of Iran! Tell us what you did to bring democracy to Iraq? Did you send your young  to bleed and die for the Iraqi right to vote? Did you say from the start that you would accept any government the Iraqis chose, even if it told America to get out, causing many important US objectives to fail? Far from doing anything, by feeding various Iraqi insurgencies, you actively sought to sabotage Iraqi democracy.

• And now the best you can come up with is that America may itself sabotage the democracy it has labored so hard to create?

• Unasked for advice for the Iran leadership. [1] Triple your dose of Prozac etc. [2] Start looking for other jobs. Retrain yourself. Be prepared. Soon the people of Iran will have no more need for you than a fish has for a bicycle.

0400 GMT January 30, 2005

• US TERRORIST REWARDS An article in US News & World Report says that the US has had good success with big rewards for information leading to the arrest of wanted terrorists, but has not made headway with the 3 top people: Osama, his second-in-command, and the Jordanian terrorist Zarqawi [see below]. In the case of the first two they are hiding with friends who wouldn't turn them in for money [see Saddam's sons, below]. An American official says that$25 million is so huge a sum it a poor Afghan farmer wouldn't be able to relate to it. In any case, Osama is telling people to die for him and they will have eternal life with the 70 virgins, and "we can't offer virgins, but we can offer 70 goats". Oh my. Even your editor could not have come up with something that crude, and he is famous for his ability to be first in the race to the bottom.

• More seriously, this 70 virgins thing will simply not leave your editor's mind. We've asked before do female martyrs get 70 virgins too, or is this just another male chauvinistic thing? Lately we've taking to pondering a vital question. What is the same 70 virgins are being promised to every martyr? Mainly your editor broods about the patent unfairness of this deal. He leads a sober life, and yet he cannot get a date with even an escaped inmate of a loony bin, and here are these people, blowing up women and children and innocent civilians, and they get 70 virgins? Where's the fairness in that?

• ZARQAWI True the US hasn't been able to get Osama and his lieutenant into its sights, but these men are in deep hiding. Vague tapes that surface from time to time are the only "evidence" they are alive. Zarqawi has been running from town to town in Iraq ["If it's Monday, it must be time to bomb Mosul", that sort of thing]. As several readers have pointed to us, Zarqawi's network is getting rolled up, and each catch regrets his bad life and is simply dying to help the Iraq government get the next person in the chain, out of sheer civic mindedness amd remorse. [A car battery and two wires would make anyone feel remorseful.] Most recently, 3 top Zarqawi people have been taken, and money has to play a big part. Its just a matter of time.

• When the Iraqis take over their own country, they will undoubtedly use any means necessary to stabilize the country, and we suspect that progress against terrorists will speed up.

• USN&WR says that the most famous case where rewards work is that of Saddam's sons. 18 days after the rewards were posted, the sons were located, and 24 hours after that, they were dead. Fast work.

• DAFUR BBC quotes a senior UN official as saying Sudan government militia have attacked 40 villages in their latest offensive against Dafur rebels. Last Wednesday, 100 people were killed in a village by government air attack.

• A UN commission is expected to report this week on if genocide has been committed in Dafur.

• COTE D'IVORIE Meanwhile, Washington Post says that UN investigators have gathered evidence against 95 people on both sides of the Ivory Coast civil war who are accused of war crimes. Momentum is growing for an international court to try these people.

• Included in the list is the President's lady, who is accused of heading a hit-squad to murder her husband's political opponents. Talk about supporting your husband's career. Madam President has denied the allegations.

• BALUCHISTAN The daily Jang of Pakistan reports statements issued by state and federal officials on the situation, but without any comment of its own: the press is under interdict over the situation's news.

• The government says no military operation is planned - contrary to reports the operation has begin [See below]. The government says over 670 rockets were fired at the Sui gas field and installations over a 5 day period in January. The Bugti tribe says it is not involved in the attacks, and the trouble began with the assault on the lady doctor.

• The Government says the main accused, an army captain, has voluntarily presented himself for a DNA test.

• Pardon us while we snicker. The whole trouble began when the army refused to let local police interrogate the accused, leave alone arrest them. If the federal government has taken over the evidence and thrown the Baluch police off the case - and we believe that has happened [not confirmed] - then there is no risk in having the good captain "voluntarily" present himself for DNA testing. No match will be found, but that will not solve the problem or negate the statements of the victim and others.

0600 GMT January 29, 2005

• PAKISTAN BEGINS BALUCHISTAN OPERATION South Asia Tribune.com sent a correspondent to Baluchistan. The correspondent says that the Pakistan Army has begun operations against the Bugati tribe in the area. People are being arrested, checkpoints have been set up, there is hardly any traffic on the roads because movement is restricted by the Army. The situation is so bad that essential commodities are not available, though the correspondent says, the Government is arranging convoys to bring in supplies for the people. Villages have been evacuated by tribesmen as they wait for the Pakistan army's next move. There is an air of hopelessness and resignation among the Bugati and their allied tribes, but they cannot, and will not, back down over the assault on the lady doctor, even if it means war.

• Meanwhile, SAT says that far from compromising on the issue of the lady doctor, by simply letting the law take its course, the Pakistan Army has beaten and intimidated men of the Baluchistan police to the extent many have left their posts and run away to the relative safety of Sindh province.

• ORBAT.COM COMMENT We have no reason at all to disbelieve the report, even if SAT is dead against President Musharraf in a personal way. The journalists who run the magazine and write for it are people with credentials, not rabble rousers.

• At the same time we found one thing odd about a second article. There is an accompanying picture of a tank, which to our inexperienced photo-interpretation eyes looks like a T-55, with the caption "A Pakistan Army tank prepares for an operation at Sui in Balochistan". Now, to begin with the tank looks like its been towed from a junk yard. The crew and three men standing alongside the tank  look cold and pathetically unlike soldiers; rather, they look like they are underpaid police from a Peter Seller's movie banana republic. There is no sign of accompanying vehicles, the tank seems to be alone in the scrub desert. There seems to be no urgency. We'd like to know about the circumstances of this picture. The Indian cavalry wouldn't be caught dead with their equipment and troops looking so useless, and neither would the Pakistan cavalry.

• ABU MAZAN CRACKS DOWN ON DISPLAY OF ARMS After deploying 2000 security personnel to ensure no rockets are launched at Israel, a move that has won the approval of no less than the hardliner Prime Minister Sharon, the newly elected leader of Palestine has forbidden the carriage of arms in public by persons other than the security forces.

• Meanwhile, Hamas has won big in local elections in Gaza.

• For readers who may not be familiar with the region, Hamas, though without doubt a terrorist group, enjoys wide support in Palestine because of its continued efforts of the years to help ordinary people when the government wont help - which under Mr. Arafat was true 99% of the time. Like Hezbollah, Hamas provides food, schools, clinics for the people, resolves disputes, provides protection, and basically performs the functions the government should be providing. In return, the people let Hamas operate from amongst their midst and help when they can.

• BOONDOCKS We would assume most non-American readers are unfamiliar with a very controversial and very funny comic strip called Boondocks, written by a wholly irreverent African-American youngster who started the strip while at the University of Maryland. It is, of course, entirely about African-Americans, and pokes remorselessly at the community and its failings. No one seems to get particularly upset about that, but once in a while it has material on stereotypical ideas African Americans have about whites, and in a hugely entertaining way, whites have about African Americans. Then there are cries of "reverse racism" from outraged whites.

• Yesterday Boondocks had two of its main protagonists watching a TV interview of an Iraqi policeman. The interviewer asks what motivated the man to join the police. He says: I always wanted to die, but flunked suicide bomber school, and this was the next best thing. Of course, without the drawings this is not a tenth as funny, but it shows a wonderful characteristic of Americans. This is their unlimited ability to make the most scathing fun of themselves.

0400 GMT January 28, 2005

• IRAN NUCLEAR One reason geostrategy is seldom a dull topic is because usually right when one figures one has a situation understood, something happens that makes one realize on has understood little. So it is with Iran's N-program.

• We'd mentioned yesterday the Euro3 had unexpectedly become very tough in its negotiations with Iran. That was a big surprise. Yesterday Iran rejected Euro3's demand for completely ending its uranium enrichment program. This rejected is to be expected as a bargaining tactic, so that's no surprise.

• Then US Vice-President Cheney tells a TV interviewer that the US plans to use diplomacy to handle problems with Iran, whereas all these months Washington has deliberately been projecting of itself as a frothing, fighting mad, high enraged bull straining to break out of his pen and start laying about to right and left.

• Then a conservative syndicated columnist in the US, who has good sources, says that the US does NOT have secret teams inside Iran. It does not need to put its own men at risk because there are plenty of Iranians, especially Kurds, willing to spy for America. Further, says the columnist, the US has concluded that in the last 6 months the mullah regime has steadily gained support and that regime change will not be welcomed by the locals. This is a surprise because it is diametrically opposite to what the United States has been saying so far, i.e., that the people of Iran are just waiting for US liberation.

• ONE BAD-GUY DOWN, 2 TO GO Readers may recall we sometimes rant against the unholy trinity of Wolfowitz, Pearle, and Feith, as being the guilty parties for the Iraq fiasco, and the repeated rumors one hears in Washington about their loyalties: are they working for the US's best interests or their own?

• Today we learn Mr. Douglas Feith is to resign, saying he wants to spend more time with his 4 children and he has no other plans at the present.

• COMMENTARY ON MR. FEITH This is how they lie in Washington: he has no other plans at present, except we'll take bets he's got a fat job lined up with a US defense contractor or affiliate. Word of advice to our gambler friends: don't bet against us, we'd hate to see you lose money.

• Now, we thought we were pretty over-the-top in our dislike for these gentlemen, but apparently we speak very gently about them. We learn General Tommy Franks, US military supremo for Gulf II, has in his memoirs called Mr, Feith the stupidest man alive on the face of the earth.  Mr. Feith's response? There is bound to be disagreement on policy matters.

• So the stupidest man on the face of the earth, gets to "retire" after mucking up his own country vis-a-vis Iran, totally messing up the liberation of the Muslim world, and prepares to turn the favors he has done to people into big money, and his lame explanation is "people disagree?"

• Why is this man not under arrest, being prepared for trial for deliberate incompetence with the death penalty waiting if he is found guilty? Its okay for American soldiers to die and be maimed every day, and its okay for US policy to be dealt huge, nearly fatal blows, and its okay to endanger the security of the country that pays him by his foolishness, and he gets off to play with his kids and prepares to cash in his chips earned while he should have been focusing on his job? What manner of mockery is this? Americans increasingly don't trust their government, and that people like Mr. Feith can do what he has done and then walk away counting the big bucks he's going to make, is one major reason Americans are absolutely right not to trust their government.

• The media and most of the world and many Americans have been screaming about the need to hold accountable for one dumb, sadistic prison guard who basically was playing with his prisoners - in terms of what happens to people who get caught for fighting against their country, but there is no accountability for Mr. Feith? Come on, America. Your leaders, and your elite, which includes the same media beating up on this prison guard,  are taking you for another ride. Are you going to let the government and Mr. Feith get away with it?

0330 GMT January 27, 2005

• EURO3 TOUGHENS IRAN N-WEAPONS STANCE AFP says that the EURO3 has toughened its stance on Iran's N-programs and is now asking for verifiable  dismantling not just of N-weapon programs, but also of anything that could be part of a weapons program. EURO3 have said that it cannot accept even the Iranian demand to be allowed to keep 20 centrifuges for research.

• We freely admit we are surprised at this show of backbone by the EURO3. To us it seemed that the group had gone so wobbly at the thought of confronting Iran that it was prepared to mere accept face-saving gestures from Iran so it could pretend it had cracked down on that country.

• IRAN REJECTS MOSSAD CLAIM ON N-WEAPONS BBC says Iran has rejected Mossad's claim that the former could have nuclear weapons within 3 years.

• For once we agree with the Iranians, but for different reasons. The Iranians say they have an entirely peaceful N-program; a hilarious claim, as Iran entire civil N-program is designed as a cover for its military program. we agree with the Iranians on the time frame because they cannot build a bomb in 3 years.

• AFGHANISTAN ASKS PAKISTAN FOR RETURN OF DEFECTOR AIRCRAFT BBC says Afghanistan has asked Pakistan to return 26 military aircraft flown to the latter country by defector Afghan pilots. Pakistan is considering the request. It also notes that years of simply standing at an airfield without care has reduced the aircraft to not-airworthy status.

• We cannot figure out the reason for Afghanistan's request, but whatever it it is, it has to be political and not military. There are huge stocks of Soviet/Pact equipment available - mostly not in good shape, but some of it has to be usable.

• US THINK TANK SAYS ARMY MATERIAL IN BAD SHAPE The Lexington Institute, a somewhat right of center think tank, says that far from the US Army undertaking a revolution in military affairs, it is accumulating a museum of military affairs. Most of the armor and helicopters being used in Iraq were built in the 1980s, and the wear-and-tear on equipment is turning it into junk. A specific example cited is the Bradley Fighting Vehicles, which are being run 4000 miles a year, five times the program mileage.

• We note that similar concerns have been expressed repeatedly by many sources. The desert is about the harshest environment for machines, because of the sand. No equipment can be expected to keep performing for years in a combat situation when it is designed for short - by US standards - wars with heavy material attrition. We don't know what today's planning figures are, but seem to recall that in the 1980s the US Army expected a 2% daily attrition rate for tanks in a Central European war. That means the 58 tanks in a battalion of that time would be finished in 50 days of war - assuming continual replenishment, of course. So then it did not matter if a Bradley programmed for 800 miles a year ran several times that in two months, because statistically the Bradley would be destroyed long before it ran down as a machine.

• The Soviets, of course, were masters of the game. Their doctrine said a conventional war would go nuclear in 3 to 10 days. Their equipment was designed to last that period, and they did not buy the spares needed for a war longer than that. So, they saved on spares, on the equipment itself because it was built for minimum functioning, and on maintenance troops. This is one reason among many they were able to field such huge quantities of equipment.

• Now, where did the Soviets learn about the expendability of weapons? This may surprise some, but they learned it from the Americans. The Germans in World War II were the masters of quality and they had many fewer heavy weapons than the US. The US, however, was prepared to lose 5-10 Shermans to kill one Tiger. These days the US expects one M-1 to kill 5-10 enemy tanks, exactly the other way around. Its interesting how things change.

0230 GMT January 26, 2005

• IRAN N-TALKS STALLED [1115 GMT] Associated Press, quoting a document it says is confidential, reports that nuclear talks between Tehran and the EU are stalled because the former refuses to give up its uranium enrichment program. Surprisingly, Teheran accepts that the uranium enrichment program makes no economic sense, and even accepts that as an oil rich country civil nuclear power makes no sense.

• Earlier, Iran had been saying it needs the uranium enrichment program to enrich uranium to low levels for its power reactors. The economics of the program, however, become irrelevant if the fuel is to be instead used for a plutonium production reactor, and just about the sole use for large quantities of plutonium is N-weapons.

• VENEZUELA: SOMETHING'S BREWING AND ITS NOT COFFEE Len Smith, an AGTW reader and commodities researcher, wonders what's going on in Venezuela. The radical - and anti-US - president has been creating problems for American companies while simultaneously discussing "diversifying" his nation's oil exports to include PRC as a new destination.

• Mr. Smith notes that shipping crude from Venezuela to US Gulf ports is much cheaper than shipping it to China, and oil to China will play havoc with tanker rates, pushing them - and the price of crude - higher.

• Mr. Smith says he is on the job and will let us know the results of research he has undertaken for us.

• We did a quick Google on tanker rates; most of the data is understandably contained in for-subscription sources, but we did find an article dating back to 2000-01 which showed fluctuations in tanker rates within a period of 5 quarters between $10 and $50/ton. Using the upper figure, that equates to $7/barrel right there.

• Now, in almost every business source we skim through, hints keep emerging of a potential show-down between the US and PRC over oil supplies. For example, PRC is undercutting US/EU efforts to contain Iraq's N-program by signing massive deals with Teheran, reducing Western leverage as far as oil purchases are concerned. We'll leave it Mr. Smith to discuss the matter, in the meantime we'll make on observation.

• Is the United States, and indeed the world, ready for PLAN warships sailing the Gulf-Singapore sea lanes, and more interestingly, entering the East Pacific to protect Chinese oil lanes? US policy not to permit any threat to its naval Pacific in the East Pacific was a direct cause of World War II; after the war the US pushed its security frontier out west. The US tolerated the Soviet Pacific fleet because basically it sailed around in circles off Siberia. Is the US going to tolerate a navy which is first seeking predominance in the west Pacific, and will then need to protect its maritime traffic in the East Pacific?

• If we may, a personal peeve. People keep saying "Oh, China will not be able to rival the US Navy for at least 20 or more years". Well, you'll be surprised at how fast 20 years go by. Its already 40 years since the US went to war in Indochina, and 30 since it withdrew from Vietnam. Its 60 years since the fall of Japan, and 25 since the Teheran hostage crisis. Twenty years have already passed from the time Cold War II peaked, and its almost 15 since Gulf I. To use distance in time as an excuse not to worry about a known growing threat is not, in our opinion a good idea.

• IRAQ TROOP LEVELS: IS THE US BLUFFING Till a couple of weeks ago, the US was talking about reducing troop levels, not just because of casualties, but because the Iraqis have to take over their own security. We, for one, don't do they will do a perfectly efficient and ruthless job. The US is talking of putting advisors with Iraqi units because, apparently, when advisors are present, Iraqi units perform well. The Iraqi Prime Minister has said on occasion he wants to recall the disbanded Iraq Army; indeed, the process has begun with the recall of two commando battalions. Once he gets the Army back in shape, the US is simply not going to be needed.

• So why of a sudden is the US saying it will maintain high troops levels for years? We believe its partly to offset earlier talk about withdrawal which would have only given insurgents hope. But, we also believe, the US is saying this so that no one gets the idea that "we just have to kill 1000 Americans and they will cut and run." The world pretty much accepts that Somalia was an aberration, and there is no question of the US abandoning its positions because 20 men are killed. Now the US has to convince people its not leaving no matter what the cost.

• We know this attitude will seem like utter stupidity to many Americans, particularly those who oppose the war to begin with. The diplo-military game, however, is one where you must not just be strong, you must be perceived as being strong. We don't think its coincidence that the Iranians mocked Mr. Jimmy Carter as he tried to get back the hostages, but the minute Mr. Reagan won the election, the Iranians could not get rid of the hostages quickly enough. We also do not think its a coincidence that the fall of the Soviet empire came during Mr. Reagan's time. One reason was he acted crazy to unnerve the opponent, and he succeeded. Another was he made sure no one could doubt he was going to keep building US military strength till the other side gave up. A third was Star Wars: he instilled in the Soviets the concern that their trump card, their nuclear arsenal, would be trumped.

• If our line of reasoning is correct, the US has changed its tune on withdrawals not because withdrawals are not going to take place - they are. Its because the US wants to make clear to Syria and Iran, among others, that 1000 dead is meaningless regardless of what the anti-war people say and of the way the US media portrays the war.

• Realistically, for a nation the size of the United States, even 10,000 dead has no significance. We think its admirable the US military genuinely cares about the life of every soldier. But too much has been made of it, and if you enter battle giving the opponent the impression you will bug out if losses get too great, you've lost already. No point in fighting in the first place.

• The thing to do is to minimize casualties and continue fighting for as long as necessary. We believe the US is following just that course.

1300 GMT January 25, 2005

• TOP ZARQAWI LIEUTENANT CAPTURED Agencies say that Zarqawi's top lieutenant was captured January 15. Iraqi officials say he admits to building 75% of the car bombs used in Iraq.

• We're a bit confused because some stories say two Zarqawi men have been arrested. The gentleman above goes by two names and we wonder if that's the source of confusion.

• HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH SAYS IRAQI TORTURE ROUTINE HRW says torture of Iraqi prisoners is routine, and says that while insurgents target Iraq security forces, this is no excuse.

• Naturally, we wonder if the increasing effectiveness of Iraqi security forces has something to do with the use of torture. We doubt it is because the security forces are employing refined western police investigation methods.

• A number of interrogation experts have said torture does not work, and that it debases the torturer as well as the victim. We agree with the second part of the proposition but not the first. Your editor lived in India as an adult for 20 years: torture by police and security forces is routine; unfortunately, it works so well that police/security forces openly defend it as an effective interrogation technique.

• Undoubtedly, many victims are "innocent" in the sense they may have only casual and peripheral information to provide. A common example is persons who have not participated in a criminal or insurgent event, but know something that they did not go to the security forces with.

• As to the point repeatedly raised by torture-opponents, that under torture a person will say anything, we agree. Any interrogation expert knows that, and takes it into account. This is a non-issue.

• The moral issue is the real issue, and opponents of torture should focus on that and not on efficiency.

• WHITE HOUSE TO REQUEST $80-BILLION WAR SUPPLEMENTAL US media says the US Government is to request at least $80-billion in supplemental war funds, which would bring to about $280-billion sanctioned for Afghanistan and Iraq since late 2001.

• Government budget experts say the war on terror could cost between $400-$1,400 billion over the next 10 years, depending on intensity of operations. The upper figure equals perhaps 1% of US GNP over 10 years at a time normal defense spending is about 60% less in GNP terms than Vietnam.

• Whether this money is/will be well-spent is, of course, open to serious debate. Obviously the money spent for Afghanistan has produced terrific results; a lot of money has been thrown at Iraq without proportionate results. Like it or not, however, inefficiency and huge waste are inherent in the process of making war, which is not the same thing as running a corporation. The need for haste alone can increase by several fold the amount of money needed.

0300 GMT January 24, 2005

• ROBO-GI HEADS FOR IRAQ Military.com says 18 robot GIs are headed for Iraq. These are based on a US bomb-disposal robot, but carry a standard a standard Squad Automatic Weapon. The units has 4 different cameras, and is steered remotely for a mission of up to 4 hours. Some claim the robot GI is a more accurate shooter than real GIs because the platform is electronically stabilized.

• Each unit costs $200,000. It occurs to us that the late 1960s price of a new M-60 tank was $200,000.

• For the benefit of younger readers: the term GI comes from US Army World War II lingo, short for General Issue. There are many subtle ironies in calling the man and not just his equipment "General Issue".

• MOSUL We learn - well after everyone else, as usual, that the US, some months ago, effectively abandoned Mosul because of mounting casualties as Baath insurgents decided to make the city their base. We also learn, thanks to Mike Thompson, that the Mosul police was mainly recruited from Fallujah insurgents. We further learn that the US has refused to recruit Kurd troops for fear of fanning ethnic warfare.

• IMPERIALISM 101 Okay, lets go through this once again, speaking slowly and in one syllable words for the benefit of the Pentagon. Imperialism can become an expensive business if not done right. For effective imperialism, you do not use the straight "up and at them" down the middle approach which the US Army is so good at it. That approach works terrifically well against massed tank forces. For imperialism, you have to use the judo approach: use the opponent's strength against himself.

• This means getting the locals to fight the locals. It is a highly effective and time-tested method' prime example being the British world empire.

• The US is worried about unleashing ethnic warfare. Earth to Pentagon: the warfare in Iraq is 100% ethnic already. The Sunnis are targeting the Shias and the Kurds. They are committing horrible atrocities. It is immoral on many levels to refuse to let the Kurds fight the Sunnis. One level is that by observing false political correctness, the US is getting its own soldiers killed, and it is stopping the Kurds from taking revenge.

• In Afghanistan, the CIA and SF troops showed zero political correctness. They backed the minorities against the Pushtoon majority from which the Taliban came. It worked like a charm. And where's the ethnic warfare in Afghanistan? Not to be seen.

• What is Orbat.com's interest in seeing American imperialism succeed? Our interest is that Pax Americana will bring peace to the world - not the peace of the grave that Communism wanted, but a peace of freedom and respect for human rights. That's all there is to it.

• PALESTINE PEACE DEAL? AFP says that all militants groups have decided to give Abu Mazan a chance to make peace with Israel, and that despite rhetoric, a "cooling off" period where the militants have ceased fire to see what the Israeli reaction will be, is already in force.

0200 GMT January 23, 2005

• US TO REDUCE MILITARY DEPLOYMENT FOR TSUNAMI RELIEF The US says it will quickly start reducing troops/aircraft deployed for tsunami relief.

• Perversely, now that the US is to reduce its footprints, some of the same people who were criticizing the US say it's too early for the Americans to pull out.

• Mike Thompson sends an internet article from an officer with the Abe Lincoln battlegroup that explains why the Indonesian refusal to let the carrier conduct training flights in Indonesian waters is an issue. The carrier group must maintain its fighting edge. The tsunami diversion has messed up training for a whole month. If the carrier moves away from the coast to resume training, its helicopters, which are are already overworked, will have to fly longer routes for relief delivery and many areas will fall outside the new, limited range.

• In this story lies a lesson for the rest of the world's armed forces. The Americans win each time, seemingly with effortless ease, because they incessantly train as if war is going to break out tomorrow. They never let up, and even a month off the line is considered too long for a carrier battlegroup on deployment. This non-stop training is one way the Americans are meeting their requirements despite severely reduced force levels.

• PALESTINE SECURITY FORCES DEPLOY AGAINST MILITANTS Several hundred Palestine Authority security personnel have been deploying across the Gaza strip in the last few days, intending to reassert a visible presence to back of Prime Minister Abu Mazan's request to militant groups to cease fire with Israel.

• While Hamas and Hezbollah have rejected the call, the Martyrs Brigade, an organization related to Arafat's Fateh party, has said it is prepared to cooperate.

• Nonetheless, Abu Mazan has made it clear he will use persuasion rather than risk civil war by attacking militants head on.

• American and Israeli hardliners have taken Abu Mazan's refusal to use force to mean he is still in bed with the militants. The truth is, the PA forces are not strong enough to fight the militants, civil war will erupt, and there is a good chance Abu Mazan will be murdered. We don't think this is the outcome the Americans or Israelis want.

• Paul Danish wrote in to say our call, some days ago, for the PA to ask the EU to help fight the militants, is unrealistic. First, the EU nations do not have the moral toughness to get into a straight fight with the militants, which will certainly create blowbacks. Second, Israel has repeatedly rejected the notion of an international force patrolling the PA-Israel border as a violation of its sovereignty and a limit on its freedom of action.

• We agree with Mr. Danish. But unless the Israelis budge, and the EU puts its money where its mouth is, peace in this area is going to go nowhere. The US, with all the baggage it carries as Israel's guardian, cannot do the job. Israel cannot do the job for the Palestinians. And the PA forces don't have the capability. So where does that leave us?

• SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Christian South Sudan has expressed reservations about the predominantly Muslim nature of the proposed 10,000 troop UN peacekeeping force expected to monitor the peace agreement between the South and Khartoum. Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Pakistan, all Islamic nations, are expected to be major contributors.

• In our opinion, South Sudan should not worry. The military forces of all 3 countries are strictly professional and will not be partial to the North just because of a shared religion.

• A PLEA TO THE UN: PLEASE STOP ASTONISHING US Mike Thompson just sent us an article from Diplomad's blog (we just got this one second ago: its Mad Diplomat; gosh, we're quick on the uptake, like the UN) that leaves us begging the UN: please stop astonishing us.

• Diplomad, who is somewhere in the tsunami area, tells that on January 18, over 3 weeks from when the disaster struck, the first two UN chartered helicopters have taken to the air for relief work. The US, meanwhile, has increased flights from 30 to 80.

• We're sitting here with our mouths open: January 18th? Two helicopters? And the UN was attacking the US for going at it alone? Doesn't this show that the US, India, Singapore, and Australia were absolutely right to go at it alone and bypass the UN?

• Some years ago, your editor worked in an all-African-American environment and lived in the same type of neighborhood. One saying he heard many times, used when the speaker was undergoing immense frustration because of some absolutely pointless situation they found themselves in, was "Lord, take me now!" That is, end my suffering on earth right now. Your editor just does not know what to say in response to Diplomad's news except "Lord, take us now". End our suffering, please.

• But wait - there's worse to come. The UN has finished a report saying that the rich nations must massively increase their aid to the poor countries, almost on a crash basis, as a big time War Against Poverty. The report runs to 3000 pages. This aid must, of course, go through the UN.

• Sixty years of "UN" and "International" Development don't seem to have taught this community of international bureaucrats - which includes more than its fair share of Americans, by the way - that the only aid that works, and is cost-effective, is aid to local non-governmental groups who each work with small numbers of individual people at a time to improve the latter's lot. If you study these groups, you will see they are community based, there are no outsiders "helping", and they act to empower the locals, not to put them at the tail end of some incredibly long chain of command run by thousands of well-paid international  bureaucrats. In the UN/International scheme of things, the clients are put last. They get what's left over after the multi-layers of bureaucrats and their requirements are taken care of. In the NGO approach, the clients are put first. The end.

• By the way, its long been evident that the UN/International aid community approach only feeds corruption, exploits the clients, and destroys the self-respect of the recipient nations. The NGO approach builds self-reliance and pride.

0500 GMT January 22, 2005

[Real news update at 1500 GMT]

• MR. BUSH'S INAUGURAL SPEECH The media reports that Mr. Bush on Thursday made a short, passionate, and eloquent inauguration speech. The theme was his vision to end tyranny on earth.

• Okay, our liberal, European, and world intellectual elite friends, scoff away. But you should have figured by now the man really does mean what he says.

• Your editor has maintained for 45 years is that ending tyranny is exactly what America should be doing: after all, America is the world's first revolutionary nation, and as we've said before, its shift to the status quo during the period 1945-1975 was an aberration, created by a fear of Communist arms. Those arms were no match for American idealism - though in true Teddy Roosevelt style, the Americans backed up the idealism with heap big arms.

• It did take America 30 years to see that supporting dictators just because they supported America was a losing game. But we blame no one: in those days, national sovereignty was paramount, and the natives were supposed not to understand democracy, which was reserved for the white west. So anxious were those times that short term security was the highest priority, and to heck with the sermonizing and moralizing to America's allies about democracy.

• One of the odd things is that once America really started pushing democracy, starting with Jimmy Carter, the world intellectual elite started going crazy about American arrogance - look no further than Iraq.

• Still, ever hopeful as we are (the bad influence of our American upbringing is to blame), we honestly believe the democracies of Old Europe will be won over by America and breaches will be healed.

• So, from now on is it all white doves, multi-colored ribbons, choirs of angels etc etc, as democracy marches triumphant over the stinking corpse of tyranny?

• Well, there is a problem, alas.

• The problem is the people who work for Mr. Bush.

• They need to be sent to Siberia, or at least to Abu Gharib, or given happy pills and retired.

• America has survived and triumphed over all adversaries since 1776. But if the current set of Giant Minds gives us another Iraq, we're going to have to forget about the demise of tyranny for another 20 years.

• Today the real enemy is not without. It is within, among the closest advisors to the President.

• Are they evil people? Not really. But they suffer from hubris. They need to put out in the street. Now.

• FLASH: WASHINGTON POST DETERMINED TO KILL ORBAT EDITOR Folks, there's no doubt about it. The WashPost is trying to kill your editor. For the second time in as many weeks, WP ran a sensible article about Iraq, and this time it was by one of their heavyweight correspondents, not some local employee.

• The WP quotes a survey which says an amazing 80% of eligible Iraqis plan to vote - despite all the trouble. When is the last time 80% of Americans planned to vote.

• Now, of course our readers and ourselves knew the Iraqis are very excited about the election and are determined they aren't going to let a bunch of murderous thugs stop them. The shock is that WP, a bastion of western media, actually acknowledges what anyone returning from Iraq can tell you.

• Tomorrow your editor goes to get his heart checked: the shock of the WP being truthful and fair twice in two weeks is bit much...we hope they dont make this a triple in the coming week.

0400 GMT January 21, 2005

• PAKISTAN SECURITY FORCES MOVE AGAINST BALUCH TRIBESMEN Several Pakistan media sources say Pakistan security forces have arrested 80 Baluch tribesmen in Sui Thesil on suspicion of involvement of attacks on the gas fields. Demolition of houses of suspects is underway. Warrants have been issued for the arrest of clan leader Bugati's son and grandson, alleging they were part of the attacks. (Editor: A thesil is an administrative division of a district; the latter equates to a US county.)

• Meanwhile: from Orbat.com to Major General S. Sultan, Pakistan armed forces spokesperson. Stop, already! Every day you issue some extremely convoluted statement that would require a constitutional lawyer to decipher, seeking to depict an atmosphere of no crisis. What is the matter with your masters? People like us are getting fed up of trying to unravel your statements which end up having zero meaning and are the exact opposite of what is happening at Sui. You are severely damaging your credibility. If you continue like this, we will stop reading your statements. Why cannot you simply speak the truth? Baluchistan is part of Pakistan, and the government of Pakistan has every right to impose law and order in the region. End of matter.

• US IN MOSUL MSNBC says the US now has 12,000 troops in Mosul fighting to regain control of the city. Readers will recall the cheery situation statements from US authorities began diverging from reality around November 2004, and that this once peaceful city considered under US/Iraq control has become an increasingly dangerous place.

• UK's IRAQ SCANDAL Prepare to be bored. Pictures have been released of UK troops abusing prisoners in much the same manner as the US at Abu Gharib, but on a smaller scale.

• Apparently Iraqis had been stealing from a British Army base and the soldiers were ordered by their commander to play rough with Iraqis caught.

• Word of advice to the British Army. So now you learn your lesson. Three of your men are being court-martialed. The country is an uproar. The press is having an orgy at your expense. Bad, bad, bad boys all of you.

• Next time you see someone stealing, kindly shoot the blighter dead. For heaven's sake, do we at Orbat.com have to tell you how to do everything the right way?

• IRAQIS ANGRY WITH ABU GHARIB RINGLEADER SENTENCE The media tells us Iraqis are furious with the "light" sentence the Abu Gharib ringleader received. Ten years is nothing, say the Iraqis. He should be executed for his heinous crimes.

• Orbat.com proposes a deal, fellows. Let's have a uniform law for everyone. If the US should execute its man for abuse of prisoners, then Iraqis should also execute Iraqis who abuse prisoners. Deal? That should take at least a million Iraqis off the street, because lets me fair and start the clock at 1970, when Saddam took over. Then Orbat.com will join you in your demand for the death penalty for the Abu Gharib ringleader. If you are not prepared to execute Iraqis who have abused prisoners, don't waste our time with your pointless whining about the Americans.

• We believe the ringleader is an idiot. But we feel 10 years is harsh for what he did. Okay, he went over the top, but frankly, we don't see he did much worse than used to happen at American college fraternities and British boarding schools.

 0430 GMT January 20, 2005

• ISRAEL TALKS BUT PREPARES TO FIGHT AFP reports that Israel has resumed contacts with the Palestine Authority but is also preparing to invade the Gaza Strip once again if PA Prime Minister Abu Mazan does not satisfy Tel Aviv he is cracking down on Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both of which have rejected his call to cease attacks on Israel.

• HAARETZ SAYS AP, AFP USE TAINTED JOURNALISTS Haaretz of Israel says that AP and AFP both employ correspondents who are also on the payroll of the Palestine Authority. This is akin to CNN or the New York Times employing journalists who draw second salaries from the US Government.

• AFP apparently does not think the matter is any of Haartez's business, and told the Israeli paper's journalist as much. The AFP officer questioned by Haartez sarcastically asked if this was a police investigation, in refusing to name AFP correspondents. Hmmmm. Well no, it isn't a police investigation. Right or wrong, however, Haaretz has made a serious charge, and AFP should answer it, for the sake of its reputation. No word on how AP has reacted.

• PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT TO UP BALUCH GAS ROYALTY Jang of Pakistan reports the Pakistan government has about doubled the gas royalty it pays to the Baluch provincial government and will increase it by half next year. It is not, however, escaping the Baluch that even after 2006 the royalty will still be about 1/3rd paid to the Punjab government for its gas.

• Another fact we did not know: Baluchis say that the Frontier Corps and Border Constabulary units in their state are less than 10% Baluch, whereas in other provinces almost all personnel are locally recruited. Given that the Baluch have always been restive, we can understand why the Pakistan government is not keen to recruit more Baluchis. At the same time, Pakistan can learn something from India. Expanding recruitment of disaffected area youth into the military and paramilitary actually reduces sub-nationalism. Not only do the youth now have jobs - and one man's military job can help feed 8-10 family members - but they build up a pride in their units and their new life, and become more all-nation in their outlook.

• US, UK TROOPS TRAIN IN URBAN WARFARE IN KARACHI South Asia Tribune.com says that US and UK troops are conducting urban warfare exercises in Karachi city. The presence of the troops is acknowledged by the Pakistan military, which says they are present to help capture Islamic terrorists, the city being a favorite haunt for these people, and it is an honor for Pakistan to help train these top foreign armies.

• SAT notes that most of the terrorist organizations operating in Karachi have been broken up and it is no longer a haven for terrorists. It also notes that Karachi city's urbanscape is much the same as that of Iran's main cities.

• SAT says that the Pakistanis are quite wroth that the Iranians turned them in the instant the IAEA turned the screw on Iran's nuclear program and are happy to help the US/UK use Pakistan as a base against Iran.

• We'd like to add: the Pakistan security forces have proved themselves, repeatedly, quite capable of taking down terrorists in Karachi. What they lacked and still lack, is good intel on the whereabouts of the terrorists. That's where the US comes in: it has been providing that intel, and it sends its own operatives as observers, FBI and CIA, with the Pakistani raiding teams to ensure the latter indulge in no hanky-panky because of sympathy with the terrorists. So we agree with the SAT: the Pakistan military's story makes no sense.

• PAKISTAN N-MATTERS: ORBAT.COM COMMENTARY If SAT is correct, then we were wrong to say the other day that we doubt Pakistani N-scientists would help the US to identify Iran N-installations, as alleged by Seymour Hersh. Nonetheless, we repeat that we doubt the Pakistanis saw much in Iran, and that the installations they did see are likely to have been shifted.

• Readers may recall last year we carried the information that the reason the Iranians turned in their Pakistani helpers was because Dr. AQ Khan had taken the Iranians for a ride. He had no meaningful N-weapon technology to sell to Iran. Ditto Libya and Saudi Arabia. Notice Libya also cheerfully turned in to the IAEA details of the "help" they received from Dr. AQ Khan. The money that Dr. Khan made went to his bank accounts and to those of his protectors/sponsors in the Pakistan Government - these are, um, shall we say, "top" ranking people.

• Your editor has also said many times that Dr. AQ Khan did not just con foreign governments. He conned his own government. Pakistan does NOT have working nuclear weapons and never had them. It CAN have a bomb in 2005 or 2006, but now, as Ms. Rice, the US Secretary of State designate says to the Senate, the US has a "contingency plan" to ensure Pakistan nuclear weapons do not fall into the hands of terrorists.

• Orbat.com, being fans of Dr. Rice, dutifully goes "of course you have a plan, ma'am" before bursting into gales of laughter. There are no Pakistan nuclear weapons as most of us understand the term, and what Pakistan has by way of infrastructure/assemblies etc that could possibly be used for nuclear weapons are effectively in US custody, and have been since late 2001. So there is no plan, the US took action long ago, and all that's left to Pakistan is to fire missiles and stage exercises with its "nuclear" tipped missile units in a giant hoax.

• Are we making fun of the Pakistanis? Not a bit! We admire the way they have hoaxed the Indians, whose politicians start wetting their pants when the issue of attacking Pakistan comes up. Your editor has been saying for decades the Pakistanis are much, much smarter than the Indians give them credit for. The simple proof of this is that Pakistan, which by all logic should have collapsed within a very few years of its creation, continues to exist 6 decades later. This is another story for another time.

• YOUR EDITOR LOSES HIS SOCKS Another bad day for your editor. His socks got knocked off when he read yesterday's Washington Post. The WP actually had a big story about how despite all the obstacles and the violence in Iraq, the Iraqi people were actually eagerly looking forward to the elections and the promise of a new Iraq. But your editor still maintains his positive outlook on the WP, i.e., that its a pathetic excuse for a newspaper: the journalist did not have an American name. To new readers, the editor should explain: in his old age the only thing that keeps him going is the daily opportunity to mock the half-witted foreign and military stories in the WP. Oh dear, our bad: now we've insulted the half-witted when we mean them no disrespect.

0330 GMT January 19, 2005

• IRAQ RECALLS 2000 TROOPS MSNBC says that Iraq has recalled two battalions of Saddam-era Special Forces troops. They will deploy after brief training to provide protection for the elections, and will be the first Iraqi troops to use armor. Orbat.com comment: we are not sure if this is correct. An Iraqi mechanized brigade should have taken the field by now.

• CAVALRY COMMANDER IN IRAQ ATTACKS MEDIA Reader Mike Thompson sends an article written by an American cavalry battalion in Iraq for World Tribune.com, in which he criticizes western media reporting of the Iraq insurgency. He says its easier to get Al-Arabiya or Al-Jazzera to witness a small success like opening a school than to get the western media to come. The media is uninterested in anything except negative reporting; what makes the situation worse is that the media, sacred for its safety, is not inclined to get into the field. The media has no training or understanding of counter-insurgency, preferring to seek validating words from "experts".

• One matter in particular struck us at Orbat.com as just plain wrong on the part of the media. The officer says the media was very ready to report and condemn Abu Gharib, but made no mention of the 200 people the Al-Sadr militia tried in its kangaroo courts at Najaf during the fighting, and whose headless bodies were found when the militia was defeated. The bodies often bore evidence of torture. One was found in a baker's oven.

• We had absolutely no clue Al-Sadr militia was committing atrocities on such a scale. We and our readers cover dozens of media sources every day, and no one we knew had any idea about this story.

• The officer says by its lop-sided reporting the media inflames the Arab world against the US, and that neither the Arabs nor the west gets to know about the positive developments in Iraq, which far outnumber the negative. As an example of this we've noted that 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces are peaceful. Yet to hear the media talk about it, the whole country is in chaos.

• We have often called the media whores, sometimes in polite language and sometimes not. Ooops - there we go again, insulting whores, who do a perfectly honest and necessary job. We at least, cannot find a metaphor or simile that accurately describes the western media's reporting of Iraq, because it is so biased, so incompetent, and so ignorant that Saddam could never have done as good a job of anti-American propaganda as western media, including Americans, are doing. The motives are obvious: a push to get attention, and more money.  This makes them traitors to America - not because they disagree with US policy, but because they are deliberately, knowingly, and purposefully spreading propaganda. They aid and comfort an enemy, and ironically, the enemy despises everything the media stand for. If the enemy should win, the media will be executed just as impartially as anyone else.

• A democratic society depends on debate, dissent, different points of view. But what the media is doing is not putting forth different points of view. It is putting forth its point of view in flagrant disregard of facts, to further their own agendas. That's what makes them traitors. And when an American commander openly says Al-Jazzera and Al-Aribiya are more receptive to the American message than are the western media, then we know the 4th Estate is deeply, perhaps terminally, mentally ill.

• FIRST GUILTY PLEA IN OIL-FOR-FOOD SCANDAL We have often noted for our foreign readers that the US justice system works in its own, proven way when undertaking criminal investigations. You don't see much happening to the top suspects. Yet US investigators close in on them slowly, but as surely as a snake digesting its kill.

• Now our foreign readers can see the first evidence that the snake has started to feed. An Iraqi-American has made a plea bargain with authorities, accepting his guilt and turning state's evidence against others, in return for a sentence more lenient than the maximum 28 years he faced for violations of US law.

• Now the prosecutors will go after the people this man has named, and then they'll go after the people they name, till they get to the top. At that point there's no more plea bargains except one: save the state the expense of a prolonged trial, and we'll ask the judge for a lighter sentence. An amusing irony here is that while the state can ask, by law the judge does not have to accept any deals. The judge can still throw the book at you.

• Apropos the slow and steady approach: the chairman of Worldcom is now about to go to trial, three years after the company collapsed. Like dessert, American prosecutors save the best for last.

• INDIA ALLEGES PAKISTAN SHIFTS TERROR TRAINING CAMPS TO BANGLADESH South Asia Tribune.com says the Indian Ministry for Home has prepared a report saying that Pakistan intelligence and fundamentalist groups have move 199 terror training camps out of Pakistan and Kashmir into Bangladesh. The primary reason is that the Kashmir insurgency has failed, and that US pressure on Pakistan plus fencing has made the life of insurgents grim. Bangladesh and India have porous borders, plus there are dozens of insurgencies in the Northeast for Pakistan to exploit.

• Bangladesh has strongly denied the Indian report.

• Unfortunately, while we cannot speak to the number 199, Pakistan has indeed shifted its focus from Kashmir to the Northeast. Pakistan has been active in the region for around two decades, but now its a different ball-game with very high stakes. Bangladesh itself has many Islamic fundamentalist groups, and the Bangladesh's political leaders have a live-and-let-live policy toward them.

ON INDIA AND PAKISTAN: THE EDITOR'S VIEW

• We want it very clear to our Indian and Pakistani readers we are not making any moral judgments here. Both countries have, for 4 decades, encouraged insurgencies on each other's territories as war by other means. India helped create the conditions for the secession of Bangladesh, then turned to Baluchistan and Sindh. For various reasons India's efforts came to naught, while Pakistan retaliated by stoking insurgencies in Kashmir. Now that has failed, so Pakistan has shifted to a new front, whereas the changed situation vis-a-vis Baluchistan has led India to step up its involvement there.

• Your editor's problem is that people in India and Pakistan don't seem to understand that there cannot be an India and a Pakistan. There are structural reasons going back millennia why the subcontinent east of the Indus and west/south of the Bhramaputra has to be ruled by a single center. Your editor argued this point for two decades, to be met by stony looks from both Pakistanis and Indians.

• Now your editor is told that a shift is beginning to take place: Indians, at least, are realizing there can be no peace till there is one country again. So is your editor rejoicing that a cause he fought for, for 20 years, is now coming into its own? Are the people who think as he does calling on him and offering him fat policy jobs and recognition back home? No, because aside from some of the older lot, no one knows your editor exists - its been 15 years since he's been gone. And why is your editor not busy promoting himself, pulling out his old writings, meeting important people?

• Simple. The lot that's thinking the two-nation theory is dead are the Hindu fundamentalists who are hugely anti-Muslim. Your editor might have been the hawk most to the right in India in his day, but he believes you cannot have anything except a secular India. India is unique because it can only work, and has only worked, as a unified whole when there has been tolerance. The greater the tolerance, the greater the unification. The less the tolerance, the greater the fragmentation. So your editor is sitting very quietly, contacting no one, unhappy that his ideas have come to be and there is nothing he can gain, but That's Life.

0430 GMT January 18, 2005

• US OPERATING COVERTLY IN IRAN? Reader Mike Thompson draws our attention to an article by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker, where he says the US military is operating covertly inside Iran to map out where Iranian nuclear-related installations are. In this task, Hersh says, Pakistani nuclear scientists are cooperating, in return for a promise that the US will not seek Dr. A.Q. Khan's extradition.

• The story has been blasted by Pentagon officials as a fantasy. A post from the Belmont Club lays out three possibilities. The story is true, Hersh has breached CIA security through his covert sources, and true to form for a journalist, has gone public with no concern for the lives of covert operators he is endangering, as also the lives of the Pakistani scientists. The story is merely speculation, half truths, rumors, built around an assumption that is likely to be true, that the US is inside Iran. Hersh has no real source, and has spun a fantasy from the assumption. Last, Hersh has been fed disinformation, and like almost every American journalist who is used in this manner by the government, has fallen for the story.

• We know a bit about Hersh, and personally we rule out the second possibility. We rule out the first because the US is at war, if anyone in any agency is leaking information that puts covert operators at risk, that person is in a world of trouble - and the courts do not help in national security situations. We believe he is being used, as he has been used many times. The US has been mounting a propaganda offensive against Iran, cheerfully disclosing "details" of planned military options. Good disinformation, however, has to be based on part truths and plausibility. Even if the US is not operating inside Iran, the Iranians will be predisposed to swallow Hersh's story. One point of such disinformation is to sow mistrust among the adversary's leaders, bureaucrats, intelligence agencies etc., with each looking at the other person, wondering if is a traitor.

• We can add a little bit to the Pakistani angle. The US is not going to let Mr. A.Q. Khan get a free pass. They want his head, and they will at the right time force his cooperation in telling all - if they have not already done so. The Pakistani scientists who visited Iran were shown exactly what Iran wanted them to see and nothing else. And even if some scientists saw more than was intended, Iran has been shuffling its installations around and sanitizing known suspect sites that are going to be inspected by the IAEA. Whatever the truth of the matter, it isn't the Pakistanis that are important here, as they know little or nothing. The real important people are Iranian nuclear scientists who have turned colors for ideological or money reasons. And by the way, recruiting such people is never an easy task for a variety of reasons, spy thrillers aside.

• PAKISTAN DENIES HERSH CLAIM For whatever its worth, according to Jang of Pakistan, Pakistan's Foreign Office has officially denied giving the US information about Iran's N-program When asked by a newsperson at a briefing if the US has been using Pakistani bases to spy on Iran, the government officially rather neatly - in our opinion - suggested the US should address this issue - a convoluted way of telling the newsperson to ask the US government.

0500 GMT January 17, 2005

• ISRAEL SAID GIVING ABU MAZAN CHANCE Haaretz of Israel says that despite the Israeli government giving the Army a free hand to stop rocket and mortar attacks against Israeli settlements, the Government is acting in restrained fashion intended to give the new Palestine leader a chance to show what he plans to do about the terrorists.

• BALUCHISTAN SITUATION: NO NEWS News from Baluchistan continues to be sparse. After an extended search, we found www.balochvoice.com, an insurgent website. We sampled the news from the 1st Quarter of 2004, and found 60+ attacks by Baluch insurgents were launched against Pakistan. One attack against transmission towers created an all-Baluchistan power blackout security forces at this time. Already in the first two weeks of 2005, about 10 attacks have taken place.

• Two organization identified by the above website are the Baluch Liberation Front and the Baluch National Army.

• Interesting piece of information: in our scanning of news for Baluchistan, we learn the province gets paid gas extraction royalties that are just 1/5th of those paid to the North West Frontier Province.

• BR Raman, a former Indian intelligence officer, says that the Pakistan Army habitually talks of the Baluchi resistance as insignificant and easily crushed if the political will exists.

• We listened to VOA and BBC audio clips on the situation, unfortunately, these appear to be in pure Urdu, so your editor was able to make out perhaps 1/4th of key words.

• The BBC website has no news from the last three days.

• INDIAN AIR FORCE LOSSES IN TSUNAMI Reader PVS Jagan writes to say our story that the entire Mi-8 helicopter squadron based in the Andamans area was washed away by the tsunami is wrong. First, there is only a flight based in the region, which would imply 4 helicopters. Second, no aircraft were lost. Our source was the web-edition of the Times of India. Unfortunately, military correspondents in India are about an order of magnitude less informed than US media, and we know how bad the latter is.

• US CHECKMATES AL-QAEDA BY THREAT AGAINST MECCA? Reader Mike Thompson sent us an article the other day, without comment, which unfortunately we seem to have deleted. It is from the web site of an American gentleman who's bio makes out he is a cross between Indiana Jones, Lawrence of Arabia, and Margaret Mead. It starts the listing declaring he was the youngest Eagle Scout in America, continues with details of his killing a man-eating (leopard? cheetah? panther?) at age 17, and then proceeds steadily downhill with stories and hints of his discoveries of lost tribes, covert missions for the US government, and so on.

• Perhaps we are being unfair, and he really is all these things, but if we meet him we'd have to gently tell him "Bad form and all that, old boy, to boast like that". Even for an American  the bio is totally over the top.

• Anyhows, this gentleman claims that the reason Osama Bin Laden has not launched another attack on the US after 9/11 because the US government has let him know it will nuke Mecca if the rat shows as much as the tip of a whisker outside his hole.

• This is our problem with this story. It assumes that OBL has such reverence for Mecca that he would be deterred by any threat against the Muslim Holy City. We do not have the dubious pleasure of OBL's acquaintance, but we are willing to wager the 9 empty Diet Pepsi can sitting on our desk that the US would be wondrously stupid to make any such threat.

• That's because if we were OBL, that threat would guarantee we'd attack the US again at any cost.

• So the US retaliates by reducing Mecca to radioactive silica or whatever. The entire world would rise up against the United States for (a) using a nuclear weapon (b) destroying the Muslim Vatican. OBL would get ten million volunteers for jihad against America instead of the hundreds he has (as opposed to the thousands US intel claims). These people would attack every western target they could reach. They'd be so eager to attack the US that if it were possible, they'd swim the Atlantic. We aren't even talking about the reaction from the American Muslim community. We aren't even talking about the millions of Western European Muslims or the Turks. We aren't talking about Muslims attacking the Vatican, slaughtering every westerner in Muslim lands, or the Muslims in the Balkans and Russia/CIS.

• Nuking Mecca would give OBL such happiness he would probably die on the spot.

• If this gentleman had said that THAT was the way the US plans to kill OBL, well frankly we'd give that story more credence than this one.

1500 GMT January 16, 2005

• ISRAELI ARMY ENTERS GAZA AGAIN Yesterday the Israeli Army again entered Gaza, with the objective of locating/destroying rocket launching sites that threaten the Gaza settlements.

• PALESTINE LEADER CALLS FOR CEASEFIRE, HAMAS REJECTS The new head of the Palestine Authority, this time speaking as the PA's elected leader, called for an end to violence against Israel. Hamas, speaking from Damascus, immediately rejected the call, saying at best it might accept a temporary ceasefire if Israel withdraws to its 1967 borders, but reiterating all Palestine lands must be vacated by Israel. Orbat.com comment: that is simply an  oblique way of saying Israel must cease to exist.

• US COMFORTABLE WITH EARLIEST PULL-OUT FROM INDONESIA The US says it wants to pull out its military forces working on Indonesian relief operations as soon as possible. It says the March end deadline set up Indonesia is reasonable, but hopes US troops will be gone before then

0500 GMT January 16, 2005

• BALUCHISTAN SITUATION SPIRALING OUT OF CONTROL Orbat.com is sorry to learn from Jang of Pakistan and South Asia Tribune that the Baluchistan situation is spiraling out of control.

• On the one hand, the Pakistan Army is still refusing to take action against the men involved in raping a woman doctor, and instead is preparing for a military offensive against the Bugati tribe. Thousands of security forces including the Army, Frontier Corps, Frontier Constabulary, Defense Security Group, and special police units from other states are assembling and digging trenches. Despite denials by the Government that an offensive is in the offing, a house to house search has begun in Sui township for arms.

• On the other hand, the Baluchistan civil police have released documents to the press contains results of investigations and naming names. Thousands of tribesmen are said to be gathering in and around Dera Bugati, their main town, where their tribe leader lives. Meanwhile, alarmed and frightened civilians, including women and children, have been fleeing the area for some days, to the extent the press describes Sui as a ghost town.

• Orbat.com was nonplussed to see that the Jang of Pakistan headlines concern cricket matches and not the looming crisis, till we learned the Government has issued a news blackout order concerning the assault on the doctor. South Asia Tribune is published from the Washington DC area and would not consider itself vulnerable to Government pressure.

• More sordid details of the assault have emerged. Apparently the woman doctor fought back so strongly that everything in her room, including the telephone, was broken. She was knocked unconscious, and later, probably still in that state was kidnapped by the Sui authorities/Army and spirited away to Karachi without the knowledge of any except insiders. We believe a high Pakistan court has ordered her to be brought to them so she can make her statement free of coercion. We are sorry we cannot be more specific, but because of the news blackout, its impossible for us to learn much of use.

• The company that runs the Sui gasfields and the hospital for which the doctor works, have fabricated a story she was the victim of a robber who broke into her room and injured her while committing a robbery. This despite the police evidence that shows clearly an assault by multiple persons was conducted on the victim.

• Meanwhile, the damage to the gas compression and pumping equipment is so serious that 10 major cities of Pakistan are under gas rationing. In Pakistan, natural gas is used to power electricity generating plants, factories, run cars, and used for cooking. Sui produces 45% of the natural gas in Pakistan.

• Orbat.com is sitting figuratively banging ourselves on the head. What does President/General Musharraf think he is doing? Does he really intend to plunge his country into civil war over this issue? Previously, we have heard it said, he was sympathetic to the complaints of the Baluch tribes. So what does he think he is doing here?

• Orbat.com supported 100% the Pakistan Army in its attack on renegade tribesmen and militants in South Waziristan - operations there are resuming. We absolutely cannot support the Pakistan Army in the Baluch case.

• We hope sanity prevails in Islamabad, or else Pakistan - critical to the US effort against remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda - is going to get into a civil war.

• We also learn that Sunni-Shia violence has, this past week, expanded from Gilgit, the main town of the Northern Areas, to Skardu, the second largest town.

0430 GMT January 15, 2005

• ISRAEL FREEZES ALL PALESTINE CONTACTS Following a terrorist incident in which three Palestine gunmen attacked civilians at a border crossing, killing six before themselves being killed, Israel has frozen all contacts with the Palestine Authority. Israel says the latter has to convince it that the PA is capable of taking hard action against terrorism.

• Orbat.com comment On the surface, it would seem Israel is being unreasonable. Abu Mazan has not taken office, how can he be blamed for the incident?

• But there is a subset to this action, and we are certain there are many others we remain ignorant about. Prime Minister Sharon has risked his entire political life and legacy on the withdrawal issue. He has to appear to act tough or he will be in even more trouble at home.

• We recognize that the terrorists are not something the PA can easily deal with. The terrorist groups have an existence of their own, they are not creations or puppets of the PA. But here's the thing: you either take hard action, or if you cannot, reconcile yourselves to another several year of sterile suffering.

• May we presume to make a suggestion? We know you cannot do the job on your own. Ask the EU for help, and that unpleasantness like having EU security personnel running around in your country. But what are the alternatives?

• ABU GHARIB RINGLEADER GUILTY The ringleader of the Abu Gharib prisoner abuse scandal has been found guilty on all counts and now faces up to 17 years in military jail. Ironically, and perhaps not so ironically, he is a reservist who's "day job" is that of a corrections officer - read jail warder - in the United States. American jails are no joke; military jail even less of a joke. This man will be twice punished: from having power over helpless prisoners, he will be a helpless prisoner.

• Orbat.com comment When the scandal broke, we repeatedly kept calling on the media to stop acting as if a crime against humanity had been committed. At no point did we defend the guilty persons. We objected to the way the media carried on and on. To us the media was engaging in the sheerest of hypocrisies because American prisoners are treated as badly or worse, and we don't see the media concerning itself with that.

• Right now we have a request of Human Rights Watch. Can your lot kindly buzz off? You are still acting as if the most grievous of crimes has been committed. You are doing it now not because of any outrage, but because you are attempting to get even more publicity for yourself, which will result in more donations, which will benefit you in obvious way. You are wallowing in the pond of human scum, and delightedly rubbing the scum into your face.

• Who are you to speak on this subject? What did you do to uncover the crime, investigate the crime, and punish the crime? Nothing. The Army took all necessary actions itself: it was investigating before the matter hit the press, and it would have done what it needed to even if you had not existed.

• You are like a flea on a dog who thinks it has a duty to moralize and correct the dog's behavior, even as it lives off the dog.

• Stop it, already.

• We actually have great respect for you and the very hard job you do. But if you want us to maintain that respect, do something useful like hammer away at American prison conditions. Oh dear, so you have from time to time done an investigation and issued a statement. We assume you satisfy your conscience by mouthing a few words and then passing on to something grand like berating the US Army.

• You want to do something about crimes against humanity? Start in your own backyard. There's enough sanctimony in the world today. You don't need to add more.

• BALUCHISTAN BACKGROUND Thanks to Nijam Sethi of the South Asia Tribune and Ayaz Amir of Dawn, we have more background on the crisis building up around the Sui Gas fields in Pakistan's Baluchistan province.

• Baluch nationalism and sense of grievance against the government has been a feature of this province since Pakistan came into existence in 1947. The Baluch did not want to be in Pakistan; they were under the impression that when Britain withdrew from united India that they would become independent. Generally Islamabad has handled Baluch affairs in a manner allowing the tribes maximum autonomy and an uneasy status quo has prevailed.

• In 1972 the Pakistan government dismissed the Baluch provincial assembly; this was the trigger for long simmering discontent and thus began the 1972-1976 insurgency.

• Since the American arrival in Pakistan, Baluchistan has been under great pressure from Islamabad to behave. The need to provide security for US bases in Baluchistan, said to number four, and the need to stop cross-border movement of Taliban, has created a situation where the government is intruding in Baluchistan with a heavy hand. Meanwhile, the issue of retuning money to the area in exchange for the gas extracted has become ugly: the Pakistan government company in charge has done little or nothing for locals, resentment was already running high when the spark leading to the present situation was lit.

• A woman doctor, who we presume is Baluchi, was gang-raped by 14-16 men, including Pakistan Army personnel at a hospital in Sui township. When the police tried to investigate, the Army, instead of helping find and punish the culprits, refused the police access to its personnel. From there matters went from bad to worse, leading to the insurgent attack on the gas fields and the consequent heavy reinforcement of Pakistan security forces.

• Despite the great danger that the Baluch insurgency of thirty years ago will be re-lit, the government/Army are talking tough and preparing for operations against the town of Dera Bugti. The town takes it name from the Bugti tribe, which is the main power in the region.

• Orbat.com comment Your editor is shocked at the savagery of this crime, which is compounded by the victim being a doctor. Indians and Pakistanis are kinfolk, and your editor is taking this incident badly because men of the Pakistan Army are involved.  Injustice is rife in India, but even a generation ago in India this crime could not have been hushed up in the way the Pakistan Army has tried. Last year, three troopers of the Indian President's Bodyguard, an elite unit, assaulted a girl student. The reaction from the Indian Army was immediate: the men were arrested and we will not see them again for many years. The Indian President was so upset he refused to participate in a ceremonial occasion involving the President's Bodyguard, something your editor believes has never happened before. Condemnation was universal and sharp, and the Indian Army as a whole was shamed.

• Now people will say: the soldiers involved, including a Captain, are not fighting soldiers, they are part of a static security force that protects installations and are akin to a paramilitary organization.

• But your editor is not condemning the men. There are bad people in every army - the US Army's soldier who headed the Abu Gharib abuse is an example. Your editor is condemning the Pakistan Army for not immediately taking action.

• Abu Gharib came to light because a soldier reported abuse to the authorities. Of the seven persons tried so far, six fully owned up to their crime and took their punishment, which included an automatic bad conduct discharge. There was no excuse for Abu Gharib, even if the prisoners were scum, constantly provoked the guards in disgusting ways, and no one was seriously hurt.

• In the Sui case, the victim is a woman. Soldiers have a license to kill. With that license goes the heaviest of  burdens, which include honor and a duty to protect the weak. This is not a case of 3 or 4 friends having non-consensual sex with a girl they have been partying with. This is 14-16 men gang raping a woman, and a woman who by profession is sworn to heal the sick.

• Your editor appeals to General Musharraf - not to President Musharraf: Sir, you are a man with immense, and justified, pride in the Pakistan Army, the army to which you belong. You must take immediate action to protect the honor of your army. As concerns the army personnel, if convicted, you should hand them over to the tribals and let tribal justice take its course. You must make sure the doctor is relocated overseas by your government: we are astounded at her strength in refusing to quietly go away somewhere; nonetheless, you know she can have no life in Pakistan.

• Your editor had a boxing instructor in boarding school in India, near 50 years ago. He was an Englishman and once from the Burma Police. After World War II he decided to stay on in India and not go back "home". He had many and wonderful stories about his war service - mostly made up as we students realized when we grew up. One thing he said to a bunch of us one day has always remained in your editor's mind: "Lie if you must, steal if you must, even kill if you must. But never assault a woman, any woman, because that is the worst crime a man can commit".

• General Musharraf and your editor are of an age. Its quite likely he had a boxing instructor, or a mentor, who told him the same thing when he was young. If he did not have such a mentor, the General should himself understand the enormity of what men under his command have done. If he did have such a mentor, we ask the General: If the mentor was alive today, would you have the guts to look him in the face and say you protected the guilty soldiers? We think not.

0330 GMT January 14, 2005

• MARK THATCHER PLEADS GUILTY TO INADVERTENT COUP INVOLVEMENT Mark Thatcher, son of the former British Prime Minister, pleaded guilty to chartering a helicopter for use in the failed coup attempt by foreign mercenaries against Equatorial Guinea. His plea that he did not know the purpose the helicopter was to be put, and that in any case the helicopter did not leave South Africa, was accepted by a South African court. He was fined half a million US dollars and immediately left the country.

• PAKISTANI SECURITY FORCES SEAL INSURGENT TOWN Jang of Pakistan reports that 2000 paramilitary forces have taken control of Sui township and the gas fields, while an unidentified number of other troops have sealed all roads to Dera Bugti. The later is the town where the insurgents are located. It appears that a military operation against Dera Bugti is intended.

• USS SAN FRANCISCO "DECELERATED" FROM 30+ KNOTS TO 4 KNOTS almost instantly on hitting an undersea mountain as the boat traveled at high speed, says the New York Times. Half the crew was injured, many seriously. One sailor died even as attempts were being made to evacuate him from the boat. The sea mount was not on the boats charts; as such, we believe the Captain cannot be held responsible. There already was an indication of "no fault" because the Captain was not immediately relieved of command following the accident. The sailor who died was pitched forward and struck his head against machinery.

• SOMALI PARLIAMENT ACCEPTS CABINET BBC says the Somali parliament, meeting in exile in Kenya, finally accepted the Prime Minister designee's cabinet after initial rejections had set back the process of bringing normality to the country. We report this even though in the larger scheme of things it is a minor development, and a long road lies ahead before Somalia is at peace, because its good news from a country that has produced only bad news for 14 years.

• OIL PRICING Another useful fact for our readers to add to their inventory. Oil prices as reported in the media every day are for the top quality Saudi stuff, Arabian light sweet crude. Prices for other oil can run a good bit less. If anyone has the time to search out some composite index of oil prices per global barrel, please let us know the correlation between the Arabian top quality prices and actual composite prices paid on the world market.

• MOGADISHU 1991 Very belatedly we learn that not just AFVs were refused to US forces in Somalia by the Pentagon, AC-130 gunships that had been held available were not in-country when the capture Adeed fiasco took place. Higher command did not think their presence was needed. If that is not bad enough, the American troops were told to leave their vehicle borne grenade launchers behind when the rescue mission was mounted. We learned a few months ago that grenade launchers caused 40% of Iraqi casualties - we don't know if this is for Gulf I or II. In any event, this weapon now has become the most lethal battlefield killer.

• We also did not realize that the two Special Forces snipers who went to the rescue of a downed helicopter crew understood they were likely on a suicide mission but volunteered because they did not want to leave their comrades to certain death. Both men fought till their ammunition, and ammunition they salvaged from the helicopter, was expended and they were killed.

0300 GMT January 13, 2005

• PAKISTAN ARMY SENDS TROOPS TO GAS FIELDS Jang of Pakistan says the Pakistan Army has sent 500 troops and gunships to the Sui gas fields, and more men are enroute. Meanwhile, it appears that civilians have fled the are and the militants are reinforcing their strength. One fifth of Pakistan's gas customers lost supply because of the damage to the plants in the gas fields.

• TROUBLE AHEAD: RUSSIA SELLING SAM-18, AT-14 TO SYRIA Clueless as usual, Orbat.com learned today for the first time that the diplomatic row between Russia and Israel these past few months concerns weapons Russia is selling to Syria. Haartez of Israel says these include the SAM-18, an advanced shoulder-fire missile, and the AT-14 Koronet, and advanced anti-tank missile.

• The concern is that the SAMs will leak to Hezbollah, which will use them against Israeli aircraft, and the anti-tank missiles will leak to Iraqi insurgents, putting US armor at risk.

• While Israel has said it does not want to push matters to the point of damaging relations with Moscow, it does not need to do much because the US is on the case. It has asked Russia to stop the SAM sale, and warned of consequences if AT-14s appear in Iraq. Debka has made the remarkable claim that the US has obtained serial numbers of the anti-tank missiles to be shipped to Syria.

• On the other side, Mr. Putin is said to be angry at the way Russia has been kept out of Iraq and at US/EU involvement in Ukraine's election. He may not be averse at this time to putting the squeeze on Washington.

• INDONESIA WANTS FOREIGN MILITARY OUT IN 3 MONTHS CNN reports Indonesia has asked all foreign military forces on relief work to leave by March end.

• We're not sure why the media and aid organizations are taking this badly. The military is needed for the emergency phases of such operations; as roads reopen and temporary bridges are built, the need for foreign troops to help goes down. Its a reasonable request.

• SOME DETAILS OF INDIAN MILITARY LOSSES IN ANDAMANS Times of India says 33 aircrew and hundreds of dependents were killed in the Andamans when the tsunami struck. The entire Mi-8 helicopter squadron based there was destroyed as the tsunami threw the aircraft into the sea. The station commander was forced to greet the IAF chief, who immediately went to the Andamans, dressed in a singlet, a lungi (a kind of sarong popular in South India for relaxing at home) and slippers: the station chief had lost everything he owned in the disaster. In fact, aircrew were flying in the night suits because that's all they had left and the need to get aircraft into the air for reconnaissance and rescue was overwhelming.

• On a somewhat humorous note, the extent of the disaster was driven home for the air chief not on witnessing the destruction, but on his station's chief attire.

• India deployed 33 warships and 12,000 personnel for relief, including military forces to Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Well done.

• THE MYSTERY OF THE US ARMY'S 10th SFG Mike Thompson sends us comments from Chester's Blog bringing up the mystery of the US Army's 10th Special Forces Group. One thousand men shipped out in October for parts unknown. A few showed up in Fallujah, but no one seems to know where the men are.

• Point of interest: the 10th SFG has hundreds of Arabic language speakers.

• Further point of interest: the US has been openly threatening Syria because the latter is allowing Iraqi insurgents to use Syria as a base, is using its resources to support the insurgents, and is buying Russian weaponry that could make life difficult for US forces in Iraq.

• Last point of interest, but caveat emptor. Debka says US will begin military operations against Syria in February, after the Iraqi election. Iraq and US forces will initially stage cross-border raids to interdict insurgent movements, hit bases, and assassinate key insurgent personnel. If this does get Syria's sticky fingers out of Iraq, the US - and Iraq - will escalate with no declaration of war.

• DAMASCUS: RANDOM THOUGHTS Unasked for advice to Damascus from Orbat.com. Sirs, please resume taking your anti-psychosis pills, immediately, and get a grip. T'will take the US precisely 72 hours to put you back to 1960 in terms of infrastructure, and its attack will involve at most a few thousand troops on the ground. It will a repeat of Afghanistan, but with far more airpower, and it will be RummyDoc (that's Rumsfeld Doctrine, for the ignoranti, which includes us) in its purest expression. If America finds any trace of the CBWs which you helped Russia take out of Iraq, or any of your CBWs, then all we'll be able to do while you get ground into the dust is to wave, and 1960s style, bid farewell with many exclamations of "Its been real!"

• Come on, Damascus. Don't you understand no one, but absolutely no one in the whole wide world likes you even a little bit? Even the Russians cant stand you. You have no friends, real or expedient.

• RUSSIA: RANDOM THOUGHTS As for Russia's intervening for you. The Russian people, in an orgy of self-indulgence post Berlin Wall and refusal to make any more sacrifices, are so militarily weak they'd find it hard to win against Pooh Bear and Eyore in the Hundred Acre Wood.

• Mr. Putin is seething at Russia's impotence, and we don't even want to try and visualize what the Russians generals are saying - if they are still standing after apoplectic strokes right and left. Let this be a lesson to the people of Russia. You want respect? Go out an earn it. If you want to disarm yourself, don't expect anyone to feel sorry for you.

• The west has now got Ukraine, something no foreigners have managed for 400 years. Do you have a written agreement with NATO/EU that they're going to stop at the Ukraine-Russia border? We don't think so, but even if you do, the west will have no more respect for the agreement than one reserves for ones toilet paper. There is a point the west will indeed stop. It will be at the foothills of the Urals, the dividing line between European and Asiatic Russia

0300 GMT January 12, 2005

• TRIBALS ATTACK PAKISTAN SUI GAS FIELDS Frontier Post of Pakistan reports via South Asia Tribune that 10 paramilitary troops were killed when Baluch tribals belonging to a "Baluchistan Liberation Front" attacked, and temporarily seized control of, various installations in the Sui Gas Fields, which produce 45% of Pakistan's natural gas. Supply to fertilizer plants and other consumers was shut down as a result of the damage, which include a compressor blown up by a rocket hit.

• President Musharraf has issued a very strong statement in essence threatening to eliminate the tribals responsible.

• Orbat.com has been keeping half an eye on the situation, but did not think much of it because the Sui gas fields are a favorite target of unhappy tribals. We would not rush to accept a "Baluchistan Liberation Front" as a reality, because money may be the root cause of the current crisis, in which apparently 200 rockets have also been fired over several weeks at the fields. The tribals may be "negotiating" for an increase in hush-money paid to get them to behave themselves. Readers will recall the US shut-down of such payments to the tribals who both protect and extort money from the Kurd area pipelines in Iraq was a major reason so much trouble took place there.

• Still, readers should keep a watch on this situation. With the Kashmir insurgency going nowhere for Pakistan, the latter has expanded its covert operations in India's Northeast, always a volatile area at the best of times. In the 1970s India supported the then Baluch insurgency which was put down with much efficiency and ruthlessness by the Pakistan Army. India was brought off by the Shah of Iran, who invested several hundred million dollars in Indian projects - a sum that today would be a few billion dollars - as the Shah did not want his Baluchis to get ideas. For India to restart its support of separatist Baluchis as a counter to Pakistan's expanded operations in NE India is logical.

• At the same time, the matter is not as simple as it was 30 years ago. For one thing the US has a large footprint all over Baluchistan which it uses as a base against the Taliban in Afghanistan, and also secures its land supply routes from Gwader and Karachi to Afghanistan. With the US and India getting along like a house on fire, India has to be sensitive to US interests in the region.

• HAARTEZ ON THE 4 SETTLEMENTS  We learn from Haaretz of Israel that the 4 Gaza settlements that are causing so much trouble because they are to be evacuated are split 50-50 on the evacuation. Two of the settlements have already been losing settlers because of the constant attacks on them, and want to get out. Its two settlements creating the problem, including one - get ready for a surprise - one with ideological settlers, who went from a population of 10 when the evacuation was announced, to 68 today. This is a bit mind-boggling. When Israel complains about Palestine inability to control its extremists groups, Tel Aviv may do well to worry about its extremists, all 68 of them at this one settlement, that seem to be able to hold all Israel hostage. We don't know how many people are in the second settlement resisting evacuation.

• DAFUR BBC says Dafuris are concerned that with the settlement between North and South Sudan, Khartoum is redeploying troops from the south against Dafur.

0400 GMT January 11, 2005

• SHARON MANAGES TO BUILD MAJORITY COALITION Concurrent with Abu Mazan's victory, Prime Minister Sharon managed to put together a majority coalition in his Parliament.

• We learn, incidentally, that there are 8,000 settlers in Gaza, surrounded by 1.4 million Palestinians. The Israeli government must be spending several tens of million dollars annually for the security of the 8,000. Would seem cheaper to give the settlers a cash offer they cant refuse. We may be wrong, but believe settlers are being given $80-$100,000 to evacuate. Does this including an allowance for building a new house or is this it? Given what little we know of Israeli prices, $100,000 sounds way too low. Comments?

• SSN-721 TRAVELING AT 33-KNOTS+ WHEN ACCIDENT HAPPENED The Los Angeles class attack submarine the San Francisco was traveling at high speed above 33-knots when it hit an undersea mountain.

• We are willing to accept that despite the decades the US has spent mapping the oceans for its submarine operations, there is probably a good bit unknown about the geography. If the boat was traveling in passive mode, its sonar would be shut down, and if a sea mount appeared where no one thought it was, you'd have an accident.

• But was it a navigation error or a mapping error that led to the accident?

• Incidentally, details of US submarines and  operations are among the most tightly protected of American military secrets. Aside from the normal precautions, the US Navy uses a psychological screening system to weed out potential candidates who might not, among other things, be discreet. Also, a constant watch is kept on crews at sea and at base. At the first sign of trouble - someone drinking too much or talking too much - action is taken.

• MORE ON SUDAN DEAL  We admit to being considerably taken aback to learn the terms of the Sudan peace deal. The south is to have semi autonomy for six years, after which a referendum will decide if the south stays or secedes. The betting is - not hard to figure out - that the south will opt for independence. The south is where much of the oil is.

• We are clueless as to why Sudan agreed to an almost-certain partitioning of its country after almost 5 decades of conflict and war. This is another one of those seemingly insignificant events that are actual very significant: Africa is rife with tribal boundary problems, and each secession boosts the chances for secession elsewhere in Africa. In principle there is nothing wrong with secession in this continent because the boundaries were drawn by the colonizing powers. At the same time, its not as if there are - say - two tribes in Sudan or anywhere else. There are hundreds of tribes and sub-tribes in each country. So where does secession stop?

• Too bad we have no source at all in the Sudan. Orbat.info, our sister publication, plans to have its own source in-country by end 2006.

• LAFF A WHILE This is a story we missed. Apparently there has been an anti-US/anti-multinational story going around that the tsunami was caused by explosions used to get soundings for oil exploration. Well, that was pretty absurd to begin with: the earthquake that generated the tsunami dropped the ocean floor 60-feet along a 1000-km fault. Pretty strong stuff, these Americans use for oil exploration. Next you know someone places charges wrong and the earth splits in two...

• Absurd as THAT story was, now there's one even madder. The tsunami was caused by an Indian nuclear test that the US and Israeli were assisting.

• Now look, fellows, whoever you are that came up with this story, Indians appreciate a joke as much as the next person. Of course, had this story come from India, it would have involved some disliked politician eating a lot of beans and then letting go, not nuclear tests. We Indians like our humor simple and down home. [Critics say Indians like their humor scatological, stupid, and gross, sort of like middle school kids. Cant say we disagree with that assessment.]

• But if you're serious about this N-explosion business, we'd like to remind you Indians are not fish. The Government of India is not about to go all the way to Sumatra and stage a nuclear explosion at what we assume are enormous depths. The Indian test range is, sensibly enough, on land in the Rajasthan desert. The Indians find this quite adequate to make nice explosions, thank you.

• SOUTH ASIA TRIBUNE We have some information on the South Asia Tribune, which we quoted a few days ago on an unlikely story about Kashmir and terrorism. The web-paper is owned by a Pakistani journalist of some prominence, based in Virginia, US. He appears to be a person of means, or at least is backed by people of means. The newspaper's policy is virulently anti-President Musharraf. Personally we have no opinions on the good President-General, one way or the other. That's an internal matter for Pakistanis to discuss. It might be, however, that the people funding the venture are allied with, or beholden to, the Bhutto dynasty or are backers of former Prime Minister Nawab-i-Sharif. Some of the stuff the paper writes about President Musharraf is both personal and strong. No wonder the SAT finds Virginia a more restful place to base its operations than, say, Rawalpindi.

• What confuses us a bit is that the editor, Najam Sethi, is very highly regarded as an independent, thinking sort of person. Of course, he needs to pay his bills like the rest of us. Principles are all very well, but they don't fill your stomach or give a roof over your house.

• Would any of our Indian readers knowledgeable about SAT care to write in. [Okay, fellows, we can stop snickering; Orbat.com does really have some Indian readers. Just that most of them seem to live in America.]

0300 GMT January 10, 2005

• ABU MAZAN WINS PALESTINE ELECTION The acting Palestine Liberation Organization chief has won the election for Chairman of the Palestine Authority with about 2/3rds of the vote. His victory was predicted, but he needed a big margin to validate the legitimacy of his pro-peace policies, and this now he has.

• The US is said to be putting pressure on Tel Aviv to reciprocate; a release of prisoners is apparently being planned.

• SUDAN GOVERNMENT SIGNS PEACE WITH SOUTHERN REBELS In a dramatic development, Khartoum and the southern Sudan rebels, who are Christian, signed a peace agreement ending 22 years of civil war.

• Many a slip etc., nonetheless, an agreement now exists. We wonder if the pressure Khartoum has been under on Dafur has led the government to protect its flank. We also wonder if the agreement presages some agreement with Dafur, which would not stand out for criticism by hard liners because it will get subsumed in the larger developments.

• IRAQ POLICE HOLD THEIR OWN Reader Mike Thompson tells us that in the last 18 attacks by insurgents against Iraqi police stations, the Iraqis have fought off the attackers. This seemingly insignificant news is actually a big development.

• PROTESTING ISRAELI OFFICERS DISMISSED Haaretz of Israel says all 34  officers of the territorial Benjamin Brigade who had said they would not comply with orders to evacuate settlers have been cashiered after the brigade commander refused to accept their equivocative clarification. When asked to explain, they had said they were speaking only about the reservations in principle, but the brigade commander found this unacceptable. The group includes five lieutenant-colonels and a major.

• The irony of the situation is. we learn from the media, that the Benjamin Brigade would not have been tasked for settler evacuation duty, not just because they are territorials and not regulars, but also because themselves are settlers.  We suppose they wanted to make a statement, which they did, and paid the price. Congratulations to the Israeli Army for not wasting any time in dealing with them; we'd still like to see the ringleaders punished.

• US-UN AID DISPUTE ESCALATES Unfortunately, there is more friction between the US and UN on tsunami relief, with UN officials saying US relief is being delivered "inefficiently", as some villages have gotten aid twice and others not at all.

• We really do not understand what is going on here. First, the UN has yet to get down to its own activities; earlier this week it appointed a committee to .... supervise other committees that had been formed ....to coordinate relief. Second, the emergency relief business is by its very nature inefficient. Third, the UN is saying the military has no expertise in relief work, but in fact it is the military of Australia, India, Japan, Singapore, the US, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia that is doing the heavy lifting. In circumstances of such devastation, only the military has the disciplined troops, heavy equipment, and organizational resources to function effectively.

• We are very concerned about this friction. Always this sort of friction is kept in-house; why are UN officers going public, especially when their own record is pathetic? The displaced don't need expertise, they need help; the US and other military forces are giving help; two weeks into the aftermath the UN has yet to make an impact. The UN is getting into a lot of trouble for nothing: the Bush Administration is famous for maintaining grudges, you cannot pick on it in the same way you could pick on the Clinton Administration.

• 30 PAKISTAN SOLDIERS TO DIE FOR ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT? An Internet newspaper South Asia Tribune says 30 Pakistan Army soldiers will be given the death sentence for being linked to an assassination attempt on President Musharraf; but also notes some sources say the figure includes men who refused to participate in the recent Waziristan, NWFP, operations.

• We attempted to see what SAT has to say about its organization and origins, unfortunately, none of the links such as "About Us" were working. Nonetheless, your editor has to point out another SAT story which says Pakistan has given the go-ahead to militant groups to resume operations in Indian Kashmir contains a number of wild statements.

• For example, the report says Washington is not averse to limited Pakistani operations in Kashmir to make India soften its negotiating position. This is a false statement.

• Militant groups may have been inconvenienced when the US forced Pakistan to shut down several terrorist training camps, but infiltration operations continued in full force. Infiltrator numbers came down because of the new fence and because of winter snow closing several infiltration passes; activity will pick up again in the summer. Meanwhile, the terrorists are at their usual business of attacking government buildings in Indian Kashmir, laying ambushes against convoys and vehicles, and assassinating people they don't like.

• Moreover, the Indian Government has many times said camps have merely been shifted or have been reactivated after show closures. I

0200 GMT January 9, 2005

• ODD HAPPENINGS IN PAKISTAN Why should America care what happens in Pakistan? America made Pakistan into the frontline state in the war to wrest Afghanistan from the Soviets. At the time, Washington mobilized and channeled Islamic fundamentalism to defeat the Soviets. In so doing, it also provided Islamic fundamentalism with a focus point, the means, and a safe haven to organize into something it had not been before: a well-armed, well-trained, well-organized, and well-financed network of groups that were prepared to do battle against anyone.

• That safe haven was Pakistan, where fundamentalism began to flourish. One manifestation of this was Pakistan's creation of the Taliban. After all, the CIA had created a jihad out of thin air, and the Pakistanis were apt pupils. They would now use jihad to annex Afghanistan, and to win Kashmir.

• Well, things didn't work out as Pakistan planned. Under pressure from the US, Pakistan has had to root out the very structures it created, or fostered, or encourage. Pakistan west of the Indus River has always been fairly much off limits to the ruling power in South Asia, it is a poor, backward area where residents were already fundamentalist in their religion. Good ground for the bad guys, who now exist in greater numbers than anywhere else in the world. Under US pressure, a huge behind the scenes war is going on between the Pakistan Government and the fundamentalists. If Pakistan does not succeed in rolling up this lot of bad people, it may well go under to fundamentalism itself, as Pakistan is a country of 135 million, growing at 3% annually, a fundamentalist or unstable Pakistan will create havoc for the world at large, and for South and West Asia in particular. Pakistan will make Iraq look like a Boy Scouts adventure outing.

• So that is why Pakistan is important in the new Hundred Years War and why we should occasionally try and understand what's happening there. We have 4 news items, from Jang of Pakistan and the Frontier Post, both respected Pakistani newspapers.

• 1. There appears to have been violence between Sunnis and Shias in Gilgit, the capital of the remote Northern Areas. Any communal violence in Pakistan is Not Good. Pakistan is a Sunni country, the Shias have always got the short end of the stick, and they have now begun fighting back. Echoes of Iraq, here. We don't know why started what in Gilgit, but people have been killed, and the Army is in the streets.

• 2. In the North West Frontier Province the Pakistan Army appears to be penetrating ever deeper into the tribal areas prior to a third round of crackdowns on terrorists, insurgents, and other unsavory characters. We have no real details.

• 3. In Baluchistan, terrorists or insurgents have attacked Pakistan's main gas pipeline. Now, attacks against the gas infrastructure have taken place in past years. But after Iraq, everyone realizes oil and gas infrastructure is soft and near impossible to protect. If these attacks expand, its going to make things that much worse for Pakistan.

• 4. A very strange article in the Frontier Post says that the Indian fencing of Kashmir has effectively not just stopped infiltration from Pakistani Kashmir, it has also trapped thousands of members of the pro-independence Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front inside Indian Kashmir. The Government of India, says the article, should let JKLF members have save passage back to Pakistan Kashmir, or else, as they are dead men anyway, they will have to fight to the last.

• The implications of this article are staggering. First, here's someone speaking on behalf of the main rebel group calmly announcing India not just has the upper hand after fencing was completed, someone is saying that the rebels are finished. And it is, with perfect equanimity, admitting the "rebellion" in Kashmir is something the Indians have been saying all along, an invasion from Pakistan Kashmir. If the Third Kashmir War is finally about to give over, not just India's stability improve greatly, but it takes off the table the main issue bedeviling India-Pakistan relations for near 60 years. To say the JKLF is admitting defeat means the Kashmir issue is resolved is a huge stretch. Nonetheless, it puts Pakistan on a road to rapprochement with India which has no turnoffs.

INDIA'S ELITE, THE KASHMIR FENCE, AND THE ROAD TO WASHINGTON

The following is solely the personal expression of the editor and has nothing to do with anyone at Orbat.com

• Americans think their government is incompetent in fighting insurgencies. Compared to the Government of India, which has many more times the experience in CI operations, the US Government is a paragon of efficiency and effectiveness. Your editor, among others, has been arguing for fencing for years. Oh no, said the Government of India, if we fence the border, we'll be recognizing the division of Kashmir. so in the meantime, its okay if thousands of Indian troops and several thousand civilians die every year due to flow of terrorists/insurgents across the border.

• For all the good it did him, in his revolutionary days your editor used to maintain a list of 1000 politicians, bureaucrats, media people, business people, and even a few military people that needed to be executed if the people of India were ever to have a chance to be free of the most powerful oppression they have ever faced - the oppression in the name of democracy inflicted by Indians themselves. People talk of the crimes of Stalin and Mao, they never talk of the crimes of the Indian elite from 1947 to even today. The Indian elite seldom went out and killed people, which is one reason it never got the attention Stalin and Mao got. What the Indian elite did was to let its people die in their hundreds of millions over six decades, dealing death by indifference, not by bullets, indifference while it ensured its rule continued. These are people who died of hunger, of bad water, of environmental pollution, of lack of healthcare, of lack of education - the list goes on.

• If your editor was to update the list, a number of people would have to be struck off because they have died. A large number of people would have to be added, and quite a few of them would be there because they wouldn't build a fence because of some psychotic rationalizing that it was in the interests of the Indian people to die rather than the fence be built.

• So, my friends who now have no problem with the fence and no longer worry it means the division of Kashmir, answer me this. Is it a coincidence that the Government of the United States has long been in favor of a division of Kashmir, and is it a coincidence that the personal roads of almost all of you now lead, in one way or another, to Washington?

0100 GMT January 8, 2004

• FRENCH FORCES EN ROUTE TO TSUNAMI AREA Editor Richard Morati provides a list that came as news to us: there is apparently a big French deployment underway. Did anyone see any news of this in the mainline American media? Looks like Orbat.com, at least, owes an apology to Paris.

• 34 ISRAELI OFFICERS SAY THEY DID NOT MEAN WHAT THEY SAID When faced down by their brigade commander, the 34 IDF officers who said they would not follow orders to evacuate settlers, now say their intention was to register their reservations in principles. Nonetheless, the matter is working up the Army chain-of-command, and the next date for further action is Sunday. Haaretz of Israel, on whom we have been relying for the story, says there was a big initial furor about the officers because it was thought they belonged to a front-line army unit. The brigade is one of two in occupied territories raised for territorial security in the event of war. The intent was to permit reserve troops to serve near their homes. There are calls to disband the two brigades.

• The Haaretz story fairly much clears up the motivation of the involved officers because they are themselves settlers. So your mutiny did not last long, boys, eh? Good cold feet, eh? What kind of officers are you to blab loudly and then retract when reality sets in? Orbat.com thinks these officers should now for sure be punished - not for mutiny, but for dishonorable behavior, i.e., NOT standing by their convictions.  Sneer.

• Meantime, Haartez says that US rabbis are mobilizing American and overseas Jews to prevent evacuations, and violence is not being ruled out by the rabbis. A young man who emailed one rabbi said that if the rabbi wanted to create violence, he should do it in America as he, the rabbi, was not need in Israel. Whereupon the rabbi, who we believe is kind of a Grand Rabbi, says the young man and others like him should be executed as traitors. A rabbi in Israel says the decision to evacuate goes against morality and the Torah. Big talk, reverend sirs. Why don't you put your bodies on the line instead of inciting others? 

• JAPAN NAVY DIVERTS 3 SHIPS TO THAILAND Asahi.com, the E-version of Japan's Asahi Shimbun, says the Thai government has requested Japanese forces for relief operations. The Kirishima (Aegis DDG), the Takanami, a destroyer, and the Hamana, a support ship, are to set course for Thailand and will arrive on Wednesday.

• Orbat.com was impressed to read this news, until we read further and found the 3 ships were already off Singapore, either on their way to or back from supporting anti-terror operations in the Indian Ocean as part of Japan's commitment. Still, its ungenerous of us to carp: considering how touchy the Japanese are about even a simple show of force, this is a generous response. Please note, however, no sign of PRC, though we think a medical team is on the ground in the region. Maybe the Japanese are trying to make a point here.

•  JAPAN ANGER AGAINST DPRK MOUNTS Jang of Pakistan says the Japanese Prime Minister's popularity ratings are sinking as increasing number of Japanese, now up to 2/3rds, want tough action against DPRK, including sanctions, for the kidnappings of Japanese citizens, but the Japanese PM fails to take a hard line.

• Please note that this is not a report from a Japanese paper; nonetheless, Jang of Pakistan relies on AFP as its main feed, as well as other international news agency.

• US MARINES LAND WITHOUT WEAPONS: FOLLOW UP Readers may recall we drew attention to news pictures of US Marines disembarking at Colombo from an aircraft that showed the men without their rifles. Here are two replies:

• From JG Payne:   Re your questions about the airlifted Marines … may have been some of the Marines that III MEF sent from Okinawa … probably from 3^rd Force Service Supt Group (FSSG) …the 15^th MEU is probably still on the Bonhomme Richard and will arrive shortly. Adm Ames, the Expeditionary Strike Group 5 Commander is aboard the Bonhomme. Re weapons conditions, those airlifted Marines you saw would have a security element in vehicles and helos nearby …  however they should be arriving in a very secure area of Thailand.  Probably just being sensitive to the media image thing as they arrive … they may have drawn weapons shortly thereafter.

• From Jim Harvey: As a former Marine 1973-1980. I know that these marines had armory lockers close at hand. The "no-weapons" walk was just for the media. Their weapons are close at hand, just out of site for know. I had this kind of duty previously, because of post-Vietnam sensitivities.

• IMPORTANT LETTER TO THE EDITOR Please be sure to read the letter to the editor from Richard Morati, putting the French view forward on relief and French forces. Mr. Morati has supported Orbat.com from its earliest days, and though we don't have a formal title for him as yet, he's by way of being the EU editor for Orbat.info. He is also editor for French Army Historical Orbats, something we'd like more of our French readers - if we have any - to get involved in.

• Mr. Morati is so quick off the mark to send us news of French operations that when we didn't receive any, we assumed nothing was happening. And of course, the usual media suspects had no mention of this, which is not to deny our responsibility for rushing to judgment.

• If it is any consolation to our French readers: your editor does constantly remind his American friends that the War of the American Revolution succeeded in great because of France. Lately we ran a little piece on the origin of the US warship name Bon Homme Richard, and noted how little attention has been paid to the part a detachment of French Marines played in the victor of BHR over HMS Serapis. [Incidentally, Benjamin Franklin, ambassador to France, wrote under the pen name Richard.]

• As for the courage of French men-at-arms: in truth, your editor has never heard any knowledgeable American disparage the French in this respect. The French Army did not fight as hard it could have against Germany in 1940 for a huge number of very complex reasons, and one reason was - as many believe - the politicians sold out the French Army in the interwar period and at the start of the war. French troops fought side by side with the US Army in North Africa and Italy, and then through Normandy, France, and into Germany. The French defense of Dien Ben Phu is a legendary military. We have never criticized the French military. Any of our readers inclined to do so should pick up any good book on Verdun as a start.

• Its politicians we dislike, and we hope our French readers have noted the scorn we pour on Indian politicians - your editor being Indian - and on their American cousins.
   

0330 GMT January 7, 2005

• 34 ISRAELI OFFICERS SAY THEY WILL NOT FOLLOW ORDERS if called on to evacuate settlers by force. They belong to Central Command's Benjamin Brigade, a reserve territorial formation. They say participating in evacuation is against their religious and moral beliefs. While the  Defense Minister has called for an investigation and cashiering guilty officers, the General Officer Commanding, Central Command has given the officers till today to clarify their position before he acts.

• Meanwhile, a settler leader who exhorted soldiers to disobey orders when they were dismantling two homes is being charged with inciting soldiers to avoid their duty, a criminal matter.

• This is not our fight; nonetheless, the officers are military men and since we concern ourselves with the military, we have a comment for the officers.

•  Respectfully submitted: you cannot refuse a lawful order. If you are asked to shoot prisoners, you can refuse because that is unlawful in today's world. Lawful orders have nothing to do with religious belief.  The land was given to settlers by the Israeli government, some of it was built on illegally by settlers. This is a zoning dispute, not a religious dispute. Please do not go into the matter of God giving the settlers the right to take that land. God gave no such permission. The Israeli government gave that permission. It has withdrawn that permission. The end.

• If you go on invoking God, then are we supposed to accept the murder of innocent Israeli civilians by Arabs because God told them to do it?

• If this is going to be the God of Israel versus the God of Islam, may we suggest a sensible course? Let the mere mortals withdraw from the field and refuse to be cat's-paws for God/s. Let the various God/s fight each other and leave us alone.

• Apparently penalties run to dismissal and some years in prison. Sorry, we personally do not agree that is just. What the officers of the Benjamin brigade are proposing is mutiny. That means execution for the ring-leaders and minimum 10-20 hard labor for lesser involved persons. Because these are officers, and not enlisted, an example has to be made of them all and execution for all. Yes yes, we know there is no death penalty in Israel. But these officers are not civilians.

• TSUNAMI RELIEF This continues to be the big story. The US has deployed 12,000 service personnel operations, and has - correctly in our view - taken the opportunity to ask where are the French soldiers and the German soldiers and so on.

• Meanwhile, the Australians have trumped everybody with an announced $750 million worth of relief, so take that, you stingy Euros and Japanese, because after all Australia is a small country population wise.

• Mr. Annan has called for promised contributions to be actually provided; apparently many of the pledges after the Bam, Iraq earthquake were not seen through.

• We received an extremely irate letter, which after sanitizing operations basically says: "Bush was the first leader to order his forces into action on the relief operations. So was it more important for Bush to play act for the media as other countries have done, with honorable exceptions like Australia and Singapore, or to actually do something? As for Bush not leaving his vacation to have a press conference on the disaster: please ask your Mr. Annan by how much did he cut his visit to Jackson Hole, Wyoming short? As for the $35 million pledge labeled stingy: it was clearly apparent this was only an immediate donation pending assessment of needs. So for the sake of publicity should Bush have announced a billion worth of aid and never followed through on this?".

• We first must clarify we have no ownership in whole or in part of Mr. Annan. We admire the man personally and that is all. We do admit that a constant stream of articles from a blog called Diplomad, forwarded by Mike Thompson, have shaken us. The blog is believed to be a vehicle for an unidentified group of past and present US State Department officers, and if even half of what the blog alleges is true, then your editor, among most people worldwide, has been seriously misled what the UN has really been doing for years. The stories are full of the arrogance, pride, corruption, ineptness etc. of this august organization which seems to exist not to help anyone, but mainly to perpetuate itself and its cozy alliances of bureaucrats worldwide. This, however, is another matter and beyond our ambit.

• Second, our reader's email is justified. Why has this pointless debate about whether the US has been generous or not generous erupted in the first place? Its as if world bureaucrats and politicians and media who hate Mr. Bush have created yet another paper issue with which to bash him, this time without any justification. That the UN of all people should be involved in this is plain wrong: the US pays 25% of the UN's direct, and we are told for programs like the World Food Program, the US picks up 40% of the tab. The US also spends enormous sums of money from its own budgets on supporting UN missions.

• We have been upset that the US has not done more for Dafur whereas for the Balkans there was nothing the US wasn't doing. But this has nothing to do with relief efforts. It is exceedingly cheap of UN officials to try and settle scores over Iraq by involving themselves in any criticism on relief issues. Besides which, there is ample evidence that the UN is bothered not by the US relief effort, but by the US getting to work immediately with its regional partners instead of waiting for the UN to take charge. Its not clear to us why the UN should take charge in the first place, and its not clear why the UN should insist that the US coordinate with it when manifestly the UN is only now coming into action: otherwise its been all talk. The UN is not a union with a monopoly on relief action.

• This debate and US bashing has to stop right now. The top UN relief official has done his bit by saying the US has reacted massively and in ways impossible for any other country to duplicate. If the Europeans continue to simply criticize Bush on every make believe issue, they are going alienate increasing number of Americans who have no affection for Bush.

• PRAVDA ON BUSH An example of unjustified Bush bashing is this article in Pravda: "Bush couldn't debate a 9th Grader." We completely agree.

• But Bush doesn't have to debate 9th Graders.  A very large number of people - including Americans - seem to think that because Bush cant speak straight, he's an idiot. So, when have we decided who to vote simply he has flash style? It would be quite superficial of us to do that, and people who criticize Bush's speaking are reflecting only on themselves.

• Your editor would like to put forward a proposition: what if Bush is learning disabled, and misspeaks because of the disability? You editor constantly misspeaks. Mrs. Rikhye will readily agree your editor is an idiot, along with many people in India. But you cannot doubt his grasp of his subject.

• That aside, would you make fun of FDR because he was a cripple? Obviously not. A speaking/learning disability is the same as a physical disability. People need to stop making fun of Bush's speaking style. Clinton was one of the smartest people ever to become President. Did it stop him from acting like an idiot whenever a 200-kilo young woman with big hair made eyes at him?  Come on people: we're at war here, aside from a dozen as-important-issues, and you're worried that Bush can speak right?

• Bush is responsible for the mess after Baghdad fell in 2003 because he's the President. if all had gone well, all praise would have been his due. Nonetheless, Bush was doing the right thing for America, and for global civilization, when he set out to bring democracy to the Islamic world. Many people don't agree with us. But what we say is: learn what is going on, has been going on for the last 10 years, behind the scenes. Some people will still not agree Bush had to act, even after learning the behind-the-scenes information. That's fine. We wager, however, that a great many people would change their minds about Mr. Bush.

0001 GMT January 5, 2005

• ZARQAWI CAPTURED? [From our readers Mike Thompson and Terry Shifflet]. Pravda and ITAR report that Zarqawi was captured in Baqubah on Tuesday, but the Pentagon denies the report. also reporting was a Kurd radio station that was the first to reveal Saddam's capture.

• We did a quick check on the story without getting any clarity. Pravda is quoting Al Bayan, an Arab newspaper. So did the Russian news agencies get the news from Al Bayan, or was it the other way around? And at what point were the Kurds involved? Did the story originate with them or did they get it from the Russians or Al Bayan? While it would make sense for the US to say nothing while interrogating this gentleman and rolling up such networks as is possible, standard practice in the business is to put this down as an interesting rumor to watch, and that is what we are doing.

• US MARINES ARRIVE BY AIR AND SEA IN SOUTH SRI LANKA Agencies say between 900 and 1200 Marines arrived by air yesterday and will link up with an amphibious squadron also arriving. Apparently the Bon Homme Richard amphibious assault group was off Guam when it was sent into the Bay of Bengal, this accounts for the delay in its arrival. It would seem the group had debarked its BLT, otherwise the Marines would have come in with the group. Any of our readers have any wisdom to share on this matter. We cannot seem to get a number for the BLT, either, which is odd.

• The photograph in CNN showed the Marine disembarking from a transport plane without kit or weapons. If they have been told to leave their weapons behind, we for one would take serious exception. Soliders and their weapons should not be separated for any reason, even if they arrive without ammunition to avoid problems on the plane. Comments, anyone.

• BULLETS AND AIRCRAFT Though this not germane to the above story, a reader brings our attention to a story from Military.com that says bullets fired within the cabin of an aircraft and hitting the fuselage do NOT result in explosive decompression. You don't want to hit a pilot or something vital like the hydraulics, which is why you don't want to use conventional ammunition in, say, a hijack situation. Also, we'd assume with people packed together in an aircraft there would be - um- bad publicity if agents put 20 conventional rounds into the terrorists and a bunch of passengers also bought the farm.

• We were very disappointed to learn explosive decompression is a myth. The ending in Sean Connery's Goldfinger has to be one of the best all-time just rewards for any movie villain.

• US OVERFLYING IRAN? Readers Ed Youngstrom and Mike Thompson send us articles from World Net Daily dated January 3 and December 18, 2004 suggesting a growing confrontation between Iran and the US is brewing.

• Both articles are by Bill Gertz, well known in Washington as a scourge of officials trying to keep dirty secrets in the hamper. He is, in reality, used as a person to whom leaks are given. Whether he knows it or not is another matter, but he is constantly getting into "trouble" with the government for saying more than he should say. He normally writes for the Washington Times.

• The link is to the overflying article, and suggests to us the US has been testing Iranian air defenses with the purpose of unmasking radars and SAM sites and frequencies. The article does not say so, but there is a clear inference Iran's air defenses are "normal", i.e., simple for an airpower like the US to get through no matter what the state of alert. That is no reflection on Iran, its just that these days just about no one can stop a US air offensive, particularly after cruise missiles and B-2s have taken down great swaths of air defense coverage.

• The invasion plan, which was in the news last month, calls for a short campaign to take out the IRGC which has custody of Iran's missiles, possibly with CBW warheads, then take out the 300 targets associated with Iran's WMD program, and then invade from five points and advance to outside Teheran. The US would not enter Teheran, merely wait till the mullahs were overthrown and a new government arranged. Unsurprisingly, the time allotted to settle with the IRGC is just one day, and the campaign as a whole would be over in 2 weeks.

• Okay, that said, first readers have to acknowledge the above is the military reality. Iran is helpless against a US invasion and that's all there is to it. The real point we should be examining: is to what extent are these the real US plans. That the US is turning up the screws on Iran using psychological warfare is, of course, obvious. But do any of our readers have reasoned explanations for what the actual scenario would be?

• And - a big "of course" - for many years there has been no military problem the US cannot handle with ease. Even back in the late 1970s and 1980s a conventional war in Central Europe  would have been a disaster - for the Pact; but it was not in the interests of the western militaries to say so, and nor did non-western analysts have the interest or the background to study the matter. Your editor, needless to say, did study the matter, but as a rule no one takes him seriously. The big "surprise" of Gulf I was no surprise except to the uninformed or those who insisted on remaining in ignorant bliss; by Gulf II no one seriously thought that overthrowing Saddam would be other than a cakewalk. So readers should not think Iran somehow presents a military challenge.

• The issue is, rather, the political side of things, and this is something we'd like to learn a lot more before making any comments on the viability of the US invading Iran.

• BANG ON TARGET, SIR We read in Military.com that when the famous Rummy incident of "You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you want" - a perfectly innocuous statement in our view - took place, an officer who did not want to be identified is supposed to have murmured, "Yes, but he made us leave half our army behind". Excellent Point.

• PROFESSIONALIZING "AMERICA GOES TO WAR" Readers are familiar with your editor's frequent complaint that first 9/11 and then Gulf II effectively messed up Orbat.com, not to mention your editor's graduate studies. Several times your editor has wanted to shut this down, and as many times readers have said "Please don't do it".

• The truth of the matter is, if we continue this, and clearly we should, we have to professionalize it. There is just so much volunteers can do, and we've been getting a lot of volunteer support. Professionalizing means paying people, even if the sums are token, to run the page, and paying people, even if its a token sum, to contribute.

• We've received some suggestions, but all of them involve charging people money. That takes us ever further away from our original goals, and the Divine alone knows how far we have had to shift from from our original model because of crass money issues.

• We have 4000 core readers, and we estimate about 1% would accept a paid model, even if the charges are modest. That means 3960 readers who will not get the page, and 40 people are insufficient to create sufficient revenue to run the page, so everyone loses. It takes time and money to build up readership. Your editor has neither: every cent he could borrow on his credit cards has gone to commercial Orbat.com, and it's to save his time that the issue comes up in the first place.

• Nonetheless, we all must find a satisfactory resolution. The new war will in all probability end only 25-100 years from now. So: if you have ideas and suggestions, lets spend some time seeing what's possible and what isn't, and coming up with a viable plan.

0330 GMT January 4, 2005

• ISRAEL BEGINS FORCED EVACUATION Debka says the Israeli Army demolished two trailer homes in the first forced evacuation of settlements; 15 people were arrested for resisting including one soldier. Debka adds that PM Sharon deliberately chose the most fanatical settlement as the starting point. We did not seen anything on this incident in the Jerusalem Post, but both JP and Haartez are loading very slowly today so we may have missed the stories.

• US-TURKEY-ISRAEL NAVY MANEUVERS Jerusalem Post says the period 3-navy exercise will start next week. The exercise has long been billed as confining itself to search and rescue matters, the Post says while this has been true so far, officers from all 3 navies have said SAR is only a prelude to wider cooperation.

• JUST TO KEEP THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE...   3.7 million died in the 1931 flood in China, though the figure includes those who died of disease etc. 500,000 people died in the 1970 East Pakistan typhoon. We are become irritated at the constant shower of superlatives awarded the tsunami. The latest is that the reconstruction effort will be comparable to  another Marshall Plan. Will someone please put a sock in it? The Marshall plan helped rebuild a western Europe devastated by war; Germany in particular was very hard hit. The number of displaced persons within Germany alone included 7 million foreigners. These were real DPs, not just people temporarily deprived of their homes.

• What has irritated your editor further is his own incredible naiveté. He called a friend to ask why the press was yammering on and on about the dimensions of the disaster. His reply: "Surely you know a white person's life is more important than that of a hundred natives. Several thousand white tourists have died. That's of greater significance than half a million Bengalis or whatever." Your editor should have been able to figure it out himself. By the way, before name calling starts, this friend is white and most empathically not a liberal. He was  was talking about what's important to a news story rather than placing assumed values on lives. Moreover he made a point we had to concede: the media has spent a huge amount of space/time relating the misfortunes of locals; this is the best covered 3rd world disaster.

• US NAVY P-3s AND DISASTER RELIEF We forgot to mention earlier that 10 US P-3s from Diego Garcia and other bases are assisting in the relief effort by performing reconnaissance of infrastructure and likely landing spots.

• Meanwhile, Indonesian troops on relief duty have clashed with Aceh rebels, killing three. so its not just the LTTE in Sri Lanka creating problems. We misreported yesterday that a villager's hut had been set on fire by the LTTE because he accepted government relief. It was a refugee building that had been set up.

• The LTTE denies it did any such thing, but we'd rather believe the western media in this case. The LTTE adds insult to injury saying that it is angry because the rebel held areas have not received their proportionate share of relief. LTTE, kindly put two socks in it. Have you done a study of relief reaching various areas of Sri Lanka? We doubt it, for no other reason than no one got much relief in the first week. In top of that, here you are saying the Sri Lanka government cannot set foot in your territory without starting a fight, then you moan that the government is not being fair.

• By the way, we realize there are different factions in the LTTE, but aren't some of you aiming for independence? So should the government be helping you in the first place? What next - medical aid for rebel fighters, weapons and ammunition perhaps, all courtesy of  the Sri Lanka government in the name of fairness?

• What you really saying is the government is unfair because it isn't delivering supplies into your hands so that you can claim the credit. We are told the government is willing to do even that, but of course you lack the logistical infrastructure to deliver supplies, not least because you are based in difficult terrain.

• Ah - so sorry we're such idiots we didn't get it before. Would it satisfy you if the Sri Lanka Army repainted its supply trucks in your colors, and its soldiers donned your uniforms, and then you'll let "yourself" deliver the supplies. We'll forward our idea to Colombo, but don't wait up past your bed time for an answer from the government.

• So please keep quiet and do something useful, like digging holes and then filling them up again. This is much more productive in helping civilians than what you're doing right now.

0400 GMT January 3, 2005

• US REINFORCES MOSUL The US army is reinforcing Mosul, as nearly as we tell with 2 brigades. Mosul had till a few months ago been a success story of peace and multi-ethnic harmony. It has been systematically targeted with the specific aim of inflaming the Kurds. We did not report this at the time, because it is our policy to avoid sensational news unless there is good reason to run it, but insurgents in Mosul have been executing Kurd National Guardsmen whenever the latter are captured. This has not been happening of late, possibly because its not a good idea to take on the Kurds, who have the largest organized and trained military forces in Iraq. Nonetheless, despite feeble official US attempts to maintain all is well, a third or more of Mosul is in enemy hands. Each time the insurgents have been seen off, they return the moment the US relaxes the pressure.

• Now, why is the US being so negligent as to relax the pressure? The truth is, this is one more instance where the shortage of troops is playing havoc with security. The US had to rush troops from Fallujah back to Mosul while the Fallujah fighting was still underway. A force we estimate at 3 battalions plus Kurd National Guard troops threw the insurgents out with considerable loss to the later. That did not prove sufficient, so now the US is going in full bore.

• At this point, you can get your teenager to write the next chapter of the story, so obvious it is. After the area is pacified, those two brigades will be pulled out for crisis duty somewhere else, and the insurgents will return.

• Your editor has been pondering for weeks: are Rummy and Company so arrogant they would rather see the US fail in Iraq then admit they were wrong? From what we know of Mr. Rumsfeld, we don't think he is; we think he is not sending more troops because they really will not be required after the election. And why not? Because, we believe, on limited evidence, that the US is going to substantially reduce is troop presence. There are several good counterintuitive reasons to do this, but that's another discussion.

• We want to be clear that we give a clean chit only to Mr. Rumsfeld. As for Feith, Pearle, and Wolfowitz, the Evil Three of the Iraq War, we would not ask them to hold our fake one-dollar bill while we unzip by the side of the road. Likely by the time we rezipped, they would be over the horizon,

• WELL DONE, INDIA   Your editor has never made any secret of his well-founded belief when it comes to venal, lazy, self-interested, self-absorbed, anti-national and just plain stupid officials and politicians, no one can come close to his government and its minions.

• Nonetheless, for once he must congratulate the Government of India for doing the Right Thing. Even as India's south-east coast and the Andamans reel from the effect of the tsunami, India immediately dispatched five warships with 2000 military personnel to aid Sri Lanka. Other reports speak of 11 warships, but we think people are counting LCMs and patrol boats as warships. That they are, but that's not quite the same as saying the US has dispatched 11 warships somewhere.

• However many ships is irrelevant. For the first time in your editor's memory India has helped a neighbor even as itself needs help. Well done.

• US MARINES AND INDIAN TROOPS NOT TO ENTER REBEL SRI LANKA AREAS     AFP reports that US Marines and Indian troops landing in Sri Lanka for relief assistance will not enter areas held by the LTTE insurgents. Though AFP in its brief report does not specifically say so, the reason is no one wants to get into fights with the rebels at the expense of relief work. And why should anyone get into into a fight, considering the rebel held areas have been as hard hit as anywhere else in Sri Lanka?

• Because our kind rebel friends have said they will resist any encroachment on their territory even for relief purposes. If anyone is going to give relief, its going to be them. And in case the locals forget who's boss, there has been a reported incident of insurgents firing a family's house because the family accepted government relief. Okay, you will say, one swallow and all that. Right, except the people already know its better to die quietly of hunger, exposure, and disease, than to have anything to do with the government or anyone under interdict by the rebels. The fear of the insurgents is such that this one retaliation will serve to deter tens of thousands. Of course, since the press is not allowed entry by the rebels into its areas, we will not know how many lessons are being taught to the hapless locals.

THE US VS THE UN, AND MS. CLARE SHORT 

The following commentary is solely the opinion of Ravi Rikhye.

• Before getting into this story, your editor wants to make quite clear he has no wish to enter this ugly controversy. Your editor has known many, many Third Worlders who have worked for the UN or been associated with it, and he is quite familiar with America's attitude toward the UN. As long as the UN was a handmaiden of the US, all was golden. When the number of independent states, some actually as large as a double bedsheet, grew and the US could not have its way with the UN, there was trouble.

• We've said this because your editor wants to make very clear to non-Americans that he is perfectly aware of the 40+ year war between the UN and US, and he knows the story from both sides. This is not another inane neo-con attempt to boost America and put down the UN. Your editor is not a neo-con, or any -con, because as far as he is concerned American neo-cons need to be paraded down Broadway clad only in giant diapers while being whipped on their fat behinds with Starbucks latte straws. Why is another matter for another time.

• Nonetheless, what's happening right now is that the UN and its supporters are dissing the United States military, US AID, and the Australian military. We have a particular soft spot for Australians and the Irish. You can disrespect the American military, and we'll hold our tongue, and as for USAID, its existence or otherwise is not something that causes us any thinking. It should be wound up as far as we are concerned. Nonetheless, when you disrespect these two agencies AND the Ozzies in one breath, then, Sir, this means war.

• It will save time if we approach this story backward. The ONLY people who have done a darn thing to help the Indonesians, the hardest hit of all tsunami nations, in the first six days,  have been the above three agencies. USAID was first to hit the ground running as it is already in-country, and the way in which these civilian bureaucrats have responded to the needs of ordinary Indonesians is a heroic tale in itself. Sharp on USAID's heels came the USAF and RAAF.

• In the first six days, and continuing, all the UN has done is talk talk complain complain whine whine. We are grateful to the Belmont Club for some of these insights, but you don't have to take Belmont's word for anything, or Orbat's word for that matter: read the newspaper and you will see its true.

• Take a single, extraordinary, and truly repulsive incident. Perhaps America should be more respectful of the UN, but after you read this, it doesn't matter where you hail from, you will understand why America does not respect the UN.

• Just on New Year's Day, the UN relief chief was saying that the UN is arranging a completely self-contained housing/support system for 90 relief workers it is planning to send to a specific place in Indonesia, and the relief workers need this gear because they don't want to be a burden on the locals.

• Meanwhile, Yank and Oz airmen, crews, logistic workers, airfield operations staff etc are sleeping on open runways near the dead, with the rats, and with the bugs, and spending every minute of their days and nights trying to get relief supplies to where they should get. These crews have also started flying at night, with no in-country support or proper airfield arrangements at either end, because no one else flies at night and thus the air routes and airfields are open. These men and women had to come from thousands of miles away with nothing by way of support waiting for them, and they still beat the Indonesian Air Force by several days.

• Now, this is not something we expect most people know, but in many circles, the near uselessness of the new class of international relief workers is legendary. We are not talking of real relief workers like Doctors Without Borders, who will go anywhere in the world at any times, and work under the most appalling conditions in conditions of great personal danger. We are talking of "Relief Workers" - think Austin Powers, almost all of whom seem to belong to the UN. "First to Boast, Last on the Coast" is what they are about. In case you're wondering where that expression comes from, your editor believes he's the first to have used it.

• Okay, lets ignore the putrid deeds of the UN officials in the above case. What makes all this much, much worse is that while the US is doing everything it can to help, people are criticizing the US for undermining the unity of the UN by its "unilateral actions".

• Now lets do a paper experiment. You are a displaced person with half your children, the other half and your spouse having died in front of your eyes. You have no food, no water, no shelter, no medicines, and no where to go. You are reduced to a status less than that of an animal - animals at least know how to survive under these conditions. So what would you prefer: to wait several more days and weeks while the UN gets its hopeless act together, or for a US Navy Seahawk helicopter to land supplies for you and to evacuate those of your family that need immediate medical attention?

• Your editor is not holding his breath to wait for the results of the paper experiment.

• Now enter Clare Short. She's the one alleging the US is undermining UN unity. She happens to have resigned from Tony Blair's cabinet over Iraq, and she's one of that pale, constipated  breed of English "liberals" to whom Hitler, Stalin, Mao, - and of course Saddam are all preferable to Americans. If you want to talk of arrogance, look at Clare Short - no need to go further. Like any politician on the outs, She needs to seize every attempt to publicize herself. But even your editor is staggered at the depth of her arrogance and total detachment from reality. Its her sort that brought us "socialism", one of the least egalitarian of all political philosophies, and possible the most condescending towards ordinary people. She has no right to be saying anything.

• We know the top UN relief official is a bit of an ass, to use old English vernacular. But - and here we expose our sexism to the full - we expected better of Short, because she is a woman and women are more practical then men.

• Note to top UN relief official: Sir we allege you are an ass, and we electronically smack your face with a limp, dead dandelion from our garden. We challenge you to a duel at dawn, 50 paces, with waterguns. No, no sense in pleading for mercy: it is a well known fact in the dueling community that your editor never gives any quarter, and ALWAYS SOAKS HIS MAN. Moreover, the editor's patriotic next-door 7-year old neighbor is lending your editor his Super Soaker watergun especially for this occasion. Sir, you can run but you cant hide. Moreover, the watergun has an American flag decal on it. You are already lost.

• Readers will notice we are not challenging Clare Short to a duel at any number of paces. Our English friends will understand perfectly why. He who avoids a fight with Short and Runs Away, Lives to Disrespect Short Another Day. Bbbbbbrrrrrattttt! Ms. Short, take that!!!! In case readers do not see an update tomorrow, its because your editor is making the most of his 5000-km lead over Ms. Short, she being on a different continent and all that.

0330 GMT January 2, 2005

• MORE NO NEWS Your editor is an unhappy camper. Despite scouring the web media for three hours today - something he should not be doing as there is much other work - he is unable to find any news of real significance. Yes, yes, its the holidays and all that, but so what? Do we go without our power, water, food markets, newspaper, TV and so on because its the holidays? Obviously not. So why should news rooms get a holiday?

• US MARINES FOR SRI LANKA  About 2000 US Marines will land in Sri Lanka to assist in relief operations. US helicopters have already been arriving at remote locations in Indonesia's disaster struck areas. It is said the bottlenecks plaguing distribution of relief supplies from Indonesian airheads have eased.

•  I'M MORE GENEROUS THAN YOU  Japan says it has committed $500-million for the relief effort, thus going one up on the US, which has committed $350 excluding private efforts. Secretary Powell says there is no cap on the US figure. $2-billion has been committed globally. Good for everyone. Now how much of that money is actually going to get to people, after you subtract transportation, distribution, and administrative costs, is anyone's guess. Even assuming everyone is working honest, there is a huge waste on relief efforts because - rightly - people are more concerned for haste than worry about waste. We're likely to see situations where - theoretically - enough bottled water for a year is delivered to a site. 80% of that is going to go to waste, but it still aid. And so on.

• DON'T READ THIS IF YOU HAVE A REASON TO LIVE... If you're tired of living and want a quick death by boredom, knock yourself out.

• Jang of Pakistan says the Taliban have appointed a new spokesperson to tell their side of the story. Yawn. The Taliban have no story to tell, and no one is interested in their non-story. Our suggestion to the remnants of the Taliban: organize yourself into a touring freak show, at least you'll be performing SOME function in life, useful or not.

• Media reports DPRK says the US is in danger of triggering a nuclear war in Korea. Huh? The US is insisting DPRK give up its nuclear bomb program and that is triggering a nuclear war? A US diplomat says "DPRK must give up its weapons program" and that forces DPRK to nuke Seoul, screaming all the way "Look what you made me do?" Since DPRK has no N-weapons to begin with, what is it going to deliver? 10-ton blocks of concrete? The contents of Pyongyang's sewers? Here's a suggestion: feed Divine Son with black and red beans and at the appropriate moment parachute him over Camp Casey. America will start leaving ROK before he touches down, 100% guaranteed. Oh, you say Orbat.com is being moronic, juvenile and pathetic? Well, who started this anyway? Are you saying you are NOT being moronic. juvenile, and pathetic in your threats? If you say you are not, you are psychotic, which is no big deal because since 1950 no sensible person has assumed you're normal. Bbbbrrrraaaaattt to you too, dude. Sheesh.

• NON SEQUITOR Military.com has several reports - rehashes of reports, really - about new US non-lethal area weapons for anti-mob action. One weapon generates heat beams to penetrate 1/64th of an inch, and the longer you hang around after this beam is aimed at you, the more painful it gets. Sounds good to us. But not to critics. Says one: what if the mob cannot get away, say if the egress routes are narrow. Aren't we going to be inflicting huge pain? And what if beams hit the eyes? These weapons are not a good idea.

• Right you are, mate, and thanks for pointing this out. US troops can now go back to using 5.56mm high velocity bullets, 20mm cannon shells, 40mm grenades, and 120mm tank fire against hostile crowds. Less chance of people feeling huge pain, because they're going to be quite dead and feeling nothing. In their last milli-seconds of life, they can thank you for stopping the beam weapons, and saving them huge pain. Sheesh.

2004 AT ORBAT.COM

• A year of huge disasters and equally huge gains. Since we don't believe in making ourselves good using polished words and nuanced language, no sense in trying to hide our mistakes.

• DISASTERS First, to give the devil his due, there were no OUR mistakes. All mistakes were made by your editor. The people who work with us worked harder than ever before and did 90% of what your editor asked them, remarkable, because he used a baseline of what he knew they could if they worked flat out, then doubled his demands.

• On the editor's side, what went wrong is that his 4th wife of 27 years (that's not 4th wife in 27 years) spent the entire year either trying to throw him out, or threaten to leave. A resolution was reached in November: Madam exited, taking her share of the house in cash, and boosting your editor's mortgage from 50% of monthly income to 250% of monthly income, and all debts go to your editor. Thanks to the magic of plastic, your editor survives. Its a race between his borrowing and the successful commercialization of contemporary orbats. 

• There are 24 hours in a day, by cutting back sleep to 6 hours, eating meals from cans,  giving up all friends and family, stop reading books or watching movies, not going to any parties or outings, giving up hobbies, your editor should in theory have had: 6000 effective hours in 2004, with 1160 for work (teaching school), 500 for mandatory exercise, 1200 for graduate school, and 3100 for orbat.com.

• With all the upset in the house, first went the full-time teaching position - not helpful as your editor was bringing in less money than before, and money was the cause of this domestic dispute, Next he had to give up his half time position. Then he started steadily falling behind in grad school - not good as he gets a decent scholarship, and last, Orbat work began suffering.

• As a practical matter, all expansion had to be frozen and then inevitably, current magazines ran into trouble. History, JSA, TOE, US, UK, and French Orbats, and the whole CIMH family came to a screeching halt. The pages we host became a mess. Intense frustration for everyone, bad for Orbat.com because all income stopped. We had to take current orbats of the loop when we were bought over by investors who are to help us go commercial. The investors - correctly - saw a lot of turmoil was going on, and provided the absolute minimum of money pending our doing a Proof of Concept. Once the concept is proved, they will come up with the real money.

• SUCCESSES  Okay, people, put away the violins, now for the good news.

• We got a publishing partner for historical orbat books, and also a small grant from our investors that permits us to publish 10 titles regardless of the commercial viability. The first ten titles are taken: 4 books have been published, 1 is in final editing for publication, and five others are working their way up the que. We're getting money for 10 more titles in the first half of 2005. This is a big development, because we have the opportunity to position ourselves as the largest historical orbats publisher of non-commercial material. It doesn't matter any more that no one wants your book on Podunkian Army Orbats in the Great Nothing War of 1616, because we want it. You have a friend etc etc. No matter what happens to other parts of Orbat.com, we have a firm committal for several years worth of subsidy.

• Our investors have agreed to give grants to Orbat.com up to a certain percentage of income at commercial Orbats - sorry, cant discuss the figures now. So as commercial orbats grows, we'll be able to put money into the not-for-profit part. This has big ramifications. Our core editors can at last expect some compensation for their work in 2005. Several of our own magazine and our hosted partner websites will have money to improve  the sites. Some assistant editors will get small stipends. Some contributors will get paid. We'll be able to spend some money on acquiring data. None of this will amount to much in 2005, the real payoff will start in 2006. Meanwhile, the sums of money to begin with will be very small. Still, $100/month from Orbat.com is better than $100/year.

• We have in place a system that gets your book into the stores 15 days from the final edit you give us; glassbooks are available in 5 days. You now have at your disposal global distribution, and we're not kidding about the global part. Our US distributor alone handles 97,000 stores. Also, your books are available at Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Borders, Powells, and a whole bunch of major UK and EU distributors, plus everywhere else in the world. This is not us churning out Xerox copies in the basement, the books are professional produced and professional marketed.

• Regarding commercial orbats. For the first time we were able to pay editors a regular sum for their work, pending the start of commercial sales. Again, the sums were small, but again, at least for the first time we could say: start work, X amount will reach you every month.

• Now, most of commercial orbats development we cannot discuss, and you have to accept that. Suffice it to say we have several products underway on Levels 1, 2, and 3; we have a great government marketing team that will start by covering Washington first, then London, then Rome - and that's all that can be revealed right now.

• The first commercial product, a Level 1, 400-page Concise Guide to World Armies 2005 is available as of Monday January 3, 2005. For big armies, it contains details down to corps, for the next rank armies we have divisions, for smaller armies we have brigades. You can buy Jane's World Armies for $2000 and not get a lot of what we have for $500 (Introductory price $250). Our Level 2 series has information that is not available outside of intel agencies, and our Level 3 is intel grade. There are seven series in the works for 2005.

• Hang in there, people, there's light at the end of the tunnel.

0300 GMT January 1, 2005

• USAF, AUSTRALIAN, SINGAPORE C-130s ON RELIEF MISSIONS Nine USAF C-130s operating from U-Tapo AB, Thailand were joined by C-130s from the RAAF and SAF hauling relief supplies in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami. It goes without saying that in all countries relief supplies are piling up because the means of distributing them does not exist: infrastructure has been destroyed, and local government officials are either dead or looking after their own families. It is long since time that people figured out how to avoid these pileups. The solution is so obvious your editor for many years has not written about it, on the assumption that better qualified people must already have discussed the matter. So your editor will post the obvious solution in a couple of days.

• Correction: we'd said U-Tapo was in Northern Thailand. It's about 140 km SW of Bangkok. Your editor was thinking of Udorn. How quickly these things fade from memory.

• IRAQ'S DR. ANTHRAX "DYING" IN JAIL SAYS LAWYER A lawyer for Dr. Huda Ammash, Iraq's "Dr. Anthrax" says she is dying of cancer, in great pain, and should be released from jail. Without proper treatment she has no hope, he says.

• It's very hard for us to report this news with a straight face. The Saturday Live Night comedy show should offer this lawyer a fat salary for joining. He can simply be himself and make us laugh till we cry.

• Let's get a minor point out of the way. Dr. Ammash is a prisoner of the Government of Iraq. It is likely she is already getting many times better care than your average Iraqi prisoner. So lets stop already with this tragedy queen business.

• The real point. Here is the founder of the Iraq germ warfare program, likely to be charged with crimes against humanity. Its simply pure luck she is dying and not tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, of Iraqis and other peoples. So she's dying in great pain. Hmmmm. The regime she actively supported, was a member of, and benefited from, of course killed its victims with utmost humanity and caring. Not.

• So if she is really dying, why not reciprocate? Give her over to the Iraqi mob, and she wont suffer long.

• In case readers wonder how come your editor is making horrible statements of late: he is on a leave of absence from Catholic Schools. When he returns, it will not be to the same principal nun who insisted he learn about forgiveness. So he's not scared, so there. [Its sheer coincidence she does not know her former teacher runs this website: in five years of seeing her ten times a day, he never got a chance to tell her about it. Strange but true.]

• US UPS RELIEF ANTE TO $350-MILLION, PRIVATE AMERICANS CONTRIBUTE TENS OF MILLIONS MORE Apparently stung by criticism from a UN official that America does not carry its weight regarding foreign aid, the US overnight upped its announced aid by an order of magnitude. The US also announced it would take the lead in coordinating the relief effort, and clearly the US is already doing so.

• More impressive is the tens of millions of dollars pledged by private Americans: corporations. businesses, relief organizations and individuals working together or through their churches and clubs. Before the US announced the increase, private aid had actually overtaken the initial official $35-million figure. Amazon.com alone raised $6-million in 4 days.

• We had no intention of getting involved in the UN official's remarks and the subsequent controversy, but cannot now resist opining that the non-issue has to be one of the pointless differences of opinion in all 2004.

• The UN official's remarks were directed at all rich countries; he simply used the US as an example because in the aid community the US is notorious for its parsimony. We hasten to that according to us, that's not a bad thing. Your editor, a 100% rightwinger, got converted to a radical left revisionist reinterpretation of foreign aid that was popular in the 1980s. This view said that foreign aid hurt the recipient rather than help, and perpetuated imperialism's hold on the newly independent nations etc etc. So your editor, at least, is a bit ambivalent about the US giving more money.

• Nonetheless, for Secretary Powell to say the US gives more money than the rest of the world combined or whatever it he said is disingenuous and yet another example of why you cant trust facts. His assertion is 100% correct, and so is the UN official's assertion. With an $11 trillion GNP economy the US can be giving 0.15% of GNP in foreign aid and still dwarf the rest of the First World. Nonetheless, the US is lowest in percentage terms, and there is no use in denying that.

• Secretary Powell is undoubtedly correct that private American giving overseas is huge. First, we'll place a small bet with Mr. Powell. Add that figure to official aid, and as a percentage of GNP the US will still look pathetic. Second, the UN official was explicitly referring to government aid. No one doubts the generosity of ordinary Americans; that wasn't the issue in his statement.

• Parenthetically, we are sorry to see Secretary Powell depart. He was and is foremost a soldier, and his ability to see complex issues clearly and to present the unvarnished truth is not something Washington - or any government - relishes. Soldiers above all people are conditioned to telling it as it is: the very nature of warfare requires that you cannot deceive yourself and survive. Its not the fault of American generals that they must always look to the politicians before speaking, because the Senate controls all senior military appointments. If you look at Iraq, the military - and the CIA, if we may add - have been giving systematically realistic assessments. That news doesn't get sent back to Washington because the general who presents that news is in jeopardy of losing his job the same way as General Shinskei lost his for saying more troops were needed for Iraq.

• The Americans don't have anything like the old German general staff system were the generals formed a very powerful collaborative group and could resist pressure from kings and politicians. The right of any soldier to speak to his sovereign with free and frank tongue was enshrined in the German Army. In World War II many generals used that right to tell Hitler exactly what they thought of his ideas. as an example, read General Guderian's accounts of his confrontations with Hitler. The language will make your hair stand on edge. Most often Hitler wouldn't listen, but he respected the generals who stood up to him. Incidentally, it was a bunch of relatively junior German generals that happened, at the last minute, to get a chance to talk to Hitler and on their say-so he ordered the plans for the invasion of France changed, and the rest - as they say - is history.

• There was a time American generals spoke frankly. That was sixty years ago. In Vietnam, as in Iraq, any general who spoke/speaks the truth as he sees becomes a 4-letter word: Dead.

STUFF YOU DON'T NEED TO READ UNLESS YOU'RE AT HOME WITHOUT A DATE ON NEW YEAR'S EVE (LIKE YOUR EDITOR)

• LAFF A WHILE We are really regretful we lost the source for the following comment - we think it was in Rolling Stone Magazine. Someone wrote words to the effect of: what's terrifying about Abu Gharib is that 80-90% of the prisoners had not been charged with any crime.

• Your editor's reply? How dreadful, sweetie, can you pass us another chocolate pastry, there's a darling.

• Meanwhile, not to ruin the day of the person who wrote that comment: Abu Gharib was full of ordinary criminals. The security detainees were relatively few. The problem with Abu Gharib was not that people who might have been innocent were jailed, it was that the United States should not have been guarding the prison in the first place. It should have limited itself strictly to a wing where the security detainees were held. The rest of Abu Gharib was an Iraqi matter and not the responsibility of the United States.

• Those people filling up the jail were there because the Iraqis put them there. By all accounts, there were a jolly bunch: murderers, rapists, thieves and what not. As for them being in jail without being charged. First, the Baghdad courts were not - shall we say - functioning up to snuff. Second, the Iraqi criminal justice system is a lot like that of many third world countries, your editor's included. This is how it works in peacetime.

• You get caught breaking the law, and you are an ordinary person, no connections. Off you go to the local police station, where you are "persuaded" to confess to whatever it is the police want you to confess you. Then you are taken before a magistrate, your "confession" is shown to him, and he remands you to judicial custody, pending your posting bail, next hearing in 15 days. If you cant make bail, which happens a lot, back you go between jail and the court until finally you can take it no longer.

• Then you fall at the magistrate's feet, clutch his ankles, weep and moan loudly: "I'm guilty, yes, I did let my pig graze on the municipality's lawn, I'm a poor man, kill me now if you want, but don't send me back to the jail." Generally the magistrate levies a fine, which is affordable. If its a serious matter like grievous assault, killing your wife, and so on, you don't weep and moan because its no use, you go back. One day you have a trial, and if you get a sentence longer than the time served, back you go till its quits. If you're lucky the police have lost the paperwork and you're acquitted. The end.

• We cannot say that all these people in Abu Gharib was confined after being brought in front of a magistrate, but the Iraqis are proud of their paperwork and its pretty likely even after the invasion the police were following this policy. Surely some people were arrested and just dumped there, and couldn't afford to buy their way out. We agree many injustices must have been committed. First, that's true of all countries.  Second, it isn't any business of the United States.

• There's been a lot of loose talk about the US's responsibilities as an occupying power, but pardon us, the US is occupying nothing except its bases. If the US was the occupying power, Step 1: impose martial law. Step 2: you violated curfew, you're dead. The end. Perfect law and order - see Japan and Germany 1945+. And even as an occupying power, it is not America's responsibility to reform the criminal justice system. The US said from the first it wanted to hand power to the people and it has steadily worked toward that objective.

• First it was Saddam who emptied his prisons of common criminals. sending 100,000 of them loose to commit more crimes. Then thanks to all the weeping and moaning and self-flagellation of the American public, 6,000 more were let go, some innocent, but most not. They're out there committing crimes.

• And you know what? An enterprising American lawyer should set up shop in Baghdad, and solicit business from the victims of criminals who were freed from Abu Gharib. S/he should then file suit in American courts, including as defendents the media and HR groups responsible for those criminals being let loose. Then let the games begin.

• By the way, the story about the pig is true, 100%. Your editor was once in the local courts in Delhi, a place he was lamentably familiar with - ah the impetuosity of youth and the lack of connected relatives to keep one out of trouble. These courts, catering to the common people, most of whom are poor, and for whom a bath can be a luxury when water runs short, are not exactly scented as the Gardens of Shalimar, or where ever. Suddenly there was mad dash of people hurling themselves out of a court room, because - as nearly as your editor could tell - a bunch of men numbering about 50 were entering. Anyone who read the Dandy and the Beano will be familiar with the expression "Coo, what a pong", and so it was. Your editor, ace reporter that he is, hung in there as the men were called one by one before the magistrate. "How do you plead?" "Guilty, Sir". "Pay a fine of 50 rupees to the clerk and he'll give you a document saying you can have your pig back from police custody, and make darn sure you get the animal out before 5 PM or we'll be having pork chops tomorrow". Much dutiful laughter from most people in the court, excepting some who must have been Muslims or vegetarians.

• To cut the story short, 3 of the men couldn't pay the money, a day's earnings for each, and no one was willing to pay for them. Off they went to the jail. If your editor recalls right, they were released in about two days, after relatives paid the fines. Fifty rupees was about what your editor earned in a day, too. He usually left home with bus fare and a couple of rupees. No question of paying their fines for them.

0330 GMT December 31, 2004

• NO NEWS DAY With the media's attention turned on the Indian Ocean tsunami, little others news is getting reported. Tragic as the disaster is, we wish the media at least would keep things in perspective. In 1970, half-million East Pakistanis (now Bangladesh) perished in a cyclone. Your editor was in the region at the time, and personally attest that little attention was paid. This tsunami is an example of how the manner in which media reports changes reality. Objectively, the 1970 cyclone was a much worse disaster. The world media was not present in any significant number, so we have a situation of the tree in the forest falling and no one to hear it etc. Subjectively, because of the media, the tsunami is being awarded superlatives. Lets also not forget the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan, PRC. Official figures gave 242,000 dead; unofficial figures went up to three times that.

• IRAQ Two incidents caught our attention. In the first, insurgents lured Iraqi police in Baghdad to a house and then blew up the house, killing 7 policemen and perhaps 21 civilians in surrounding houses. In Mosul, insurgents ambushed US reinforcements headed toward a previous incident; 25 insurgents were killed, and 1 American solider.

• The first incident is of interest because it shows the insurgents have become desperate in the extreme. You do not kill 21 civilians whose only crime was to live adjacent to the ambush house. Insurgents depend on the civilian populace; if you keep blowing up the populace, you are going to alienate the population. Of course, several reports that have received scant attention say that's exactly what's been happening.

• The second incident is of interest because it was meticulously planned and executed, the Americans themselves remarked on the high level of organization and command and control involved. Still, it did the insurgents no good. The minute US reinforcements began taking fire, airpower was called in, and then it was curtains for the insurgents. Of particular interest is a report that a US Stryker detonated seven sets of IEDs laid along a road the insurgents knew would be used by reinforcements. Clever planning, and some serious redundancy so that even if some of the IEDs were detected or exploded, the others would cause serious damage. But for all the planning that went into this, nothing happened because one Stryker destroyed all the bombs along that particular stretch.

• So its of no use to focus on the insurgents' learning curve. Steep as it may be, the US's learning curve is steeper. The insurgents are still hopeless losers.

• What about the mess hall? It now appears that US troops were seriously negligent and that despite widespread awareness that tight base security was needed, people were still acting carelessly. Okay, the insurgents got lucky. But the Americans are not going to make the same mistake again.

• RUSSIA-PRC EXERCISES Agencies say Russia and the PRC are going to stage joint military exercises. An intriguing development, but perhaps less so than another: Russia has offered PRC 20% of the recently seized Yukos oil company. This follows on the heels of PRC and Iran penciling a multi billion dollar/multi decade agreement for the Chinese to buy Iranian gas. We'd mentioned this earlier: Iran is making an end run against possible US/EU sanctions over its nuclear programs. More important is the proposition that as PRC grows, so does its need for hydrocarbons. China's trade is expected to hit $1 trillion in 2005, making PRC third after the US and Japan. That trade, including hydrocarbons, has to be protected. Are the Americans sure they're doing the right thing by further downsizing their fleets? Most immediately 1 aircraft carrier of 12 is proposed to be cut, some plans speak of decommissioning as many as 3 carriers.

• MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE RANCH...  So it would be reasonable to presume that the Indians are scrambling to counterbalance growing PRC military strength. Reasonable it may be, but you'd presume wrong. India is spending its time on asinine projects like preventing delivery of 20 older model F-16s to Pakistan, and on raiding the porn industry after a schoolboy used his vid-phone to capture him having sex with a female classmate, and then thoughtfully making the film available to his friends, who gave it to their friends, who gave it to...etc.

• Your editor in the 1970s and 1980s used to be one of very few people in India who was in a position to know a bit about how the PRC looked at a possible Indian threat. Shocking but true: the PLA was not expending any thought on worrying about India even then.

• Your editor recalls an analysis he did in the late 1980s, which showed that Indian forces against PRC in Tibet were so much superior that it would probably have taken the Indian air Force 72 hours to knock the PLAAF in Tibet out, crater all airbases, and block all transport routes from the mainland. It would have taken the Indian army 3 to 10 days to capture Lhasa, depending on the plan used. And it would have taken India 72 hours to recover Eastern Ladakh, which India lost to China in 1961-62. As the Indian Army and Air Force had absolutely zero interest in the analysis - ironically the study was funded by a disarmament think tank - your editor could get no feedback, not one little bit. On a visit to the Directorate of Military Operations, the sole comment was "Interesting. Have some more tea and sandwiches." Your editor does not drink tea or coffee, so he focused on the sandwiches, which were excellent.

• So then your editor trotted off to the Chinese Embassy to see his pals in the Military Attaché's office. In those days you did not (a) go to the Chinese Military Attaché's office, and (b) if you did, you'd better have been prepared to be grilled by the Indian counter-intel lot. It is a fact that your editor never had trouble with the Indians, and it wasn't because he was working for them. It was because they thought him to be eccentric to the point he was simply a harmless nutcase, not worth expending energy on, particularly when it got to 120 F in the shade.

• So in the lavish, palace like setting of some drawing room - one of many in the Chinese embassy - your editor had this exchange with the military attaché himself. The attaché was a very quiet, humble man who pretended he had no more importance than the junior gardener on the grounds, and certainly no more intelligent, but who knew everything that was worth knowing. "Did you have a chance to read my analysis?" I asked.

• The attaché - speaking through the interpreter who was another sharp cookie - politely murmured: "Of course, and with utmost care. Another soda and a sandwich, perhaps". More soda and sandwiches presented - at least the Military Attaché was considerate enough to keep in mind your editor did not drink tea or coffee. Lengthy silence. You cannot rush the Chinese. Silence extends. Finally the Attaché murmurs: "Most interesting. But politically speaking..." Here he trailed off. There was no need for him to say more, because your editor had had the conversation with many generations of PLA attaches.

• Decoded, this is what he said: "War is nine-tenths political and one-tenth military. The Indian military is formidable and much more advanced than ours. But the political will is so lacking, we feel comfortable protecting Tibet with a few interceptors, a couple of understrength divisions, and a handful of border troops." Later your editor was to learn the understrength divisions were already scheduled for reduction to brigades, so little did the Chinese worry about Indian military capability.

• Now its almost 20 years later, and your editor has no plans to return to India. If he does, he has zero intention of visiting the Chinese military attaché. If the above is what they thought of India when the military balance in Tibet favored India by a factor of 3 to 5, we hate to think what the attaché would say now that the PLA's capability equals India's, with plans to reverse the former imbalance to 3-5 against India.

• Unwanted advice to Government of India. Can you kindly get officials to stop salivating at the film and others that officers have seized from the porn industry and leave these youngsters alone? What's more important: the rising threat from China and the 1000 other equally serious problems India faces, or two school kids doing what young people do naturally? Here your editor slaps himself on the wrist six times for asking such a stupid question. Of course what two youngsters were doing is much more important...

0300 GMT December 30, 2004

• IRAN-VENEZUELA Joseag238 tells us that on December 16 KCAL-TV carried a report that Iran had asked Venezuela for "bases". An associate of Joseag238 speculates: could the request be for stationing missiles capable of reaching the US? If all this is true, then we have nothing to fear from the mullahs of Iran. If this is the best they can come up with, clearly they'd be better off playing Go Fish with a bunch of 5-year olds - more chance of winning. And if Mr. Chavez agrees, then its goodbye to him too.

• Again, assuming the report is correct: there is something called the Monroe Doctrine, which specifically says the US will not tolerate any threat to its security from Central/South America, or from a foreign power using the region as a platform to threaten the US. The last time there was a real threat was from Che Guevara, and we know what happened to him.

• Before Che, there was the Soviet introduction of IRBMs into Cuba, and we know how that turned out too.

• One of the great foreign policy myths is that actually Cuba 1962 was a victory for Moscow because the US agreed to pull IRBMs out of Italy and Turkey in exchange for the Soviets getting their missiles out of Cuba. The reason this is a myth is that US IRBMs in those NATO countries were slated to stand-down as more and more Polaris SSBNs took to sea. So the US gained a lot at the no cost. But - here was the genius of US diplomacy - to help the Soviets save face, the US quietly  "allowed" there had been a trade. Some scholars who didn't know better concluded the Soviets had pulled off a coup.

• SADDAM TRIAL AFP says former US attorney general Ramsey Clark, well known for his leftist activism has joined Saddam's defense team. We personally thought Saddam should have been publicly executed after his capture, but now that Iraq has decided to give him a trial, he is entitled to his defense lawyers and Mr. Clark is entitled to be one such.

• If, however, the US/Iraq wimp out on the question of where the money for the defense is coming from, then both fully deserve every misery this trail will bring for the good guys. Saddam's daughters should not have a plugged nickel to their name. If they and other Iraqis are willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars for Saddam's defense - as the daughters are believed to have said they are ready to do - Baghdad's first step should be to serve all members of Saddam's defense teams requiring them to account form where the money came. If these people are using money looted from Iraq, they are violating the laws of Iraq. Off with their heads.

• Yes, anti-Americans around the world will scream foul play. Question is, whose country is this anyway? What right does the US have to dictate to Iraq how Saddam has to be handled? What business is it of the EU and the Human Rights lot? The more fair play the US/Iraq gives, the less the Arabs will respect them. As for the American critics: does Washington honestly thing their minds can be changed by a "fair" trial? The critics are saying the US has no business to be in Iraq in the first place. So how can any Saddam trial be fair?

• US NAVAL MOVEMENTS IN TSUNAMI'S WAKE The US Navy's USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battlegroup is enroute to the South China Sea to help in relief efforts in Thailand. Meanwhile, the USS Bon Homme Richard expeditionary strike group has set course for the Bay of Bengal. US Navy P-3 Orions and USAF C-130s are providing reconnaissance and transport help.

• The US Marines' III MEF is setting up HQ at Utapo Air Base in northern Thailand to coordinate the US relief effort. Utapo is, of course, the famous giant air base from US B-52s and other aircraft regularly struck Vietnam during Indochina II.

• In case anyone is interested: this particular Bon Homme Richard is the latest in a line of US Navy ships stretching back to the War of the American Revolution. The Continental Navy's first commissioned officer, John Paul Jones, got into a sea fight of Northeast England  with HMS Serapis. The latter battered the Richard so badly that Jones decided the only chance he  had was to board the Serapis. When the Richard came alongside Serapis, the Americans had no flag - the flag had been shot down. The Serapis' captain, seeing the lack of a flag, hailed Jones, asking if he was surrendering. It is then that Jones uttered the immortal line "No, for I have not yet begun to fight!". Different times, different men.

• The Americans captured the Serapis and Richard's crew transferred to the Royal Navy ship. What is often left out of popular accounts  is that the convoy Serapis was escorting, and that Richard wanted, escaped safely. And what is also often left out is that along with the enormous bravery of the Americans, it was a French Marine sharpshooter detachment on the Richard that helped make victory possible. First the Marines prevented sailors on Serapis from breaking the deadly embrace within which Richard had clasped Serapis, then they shot down eleven men at the Serapis' wheel. And as a footnote, once he saw his convoy was safe, Serapis' captain personally took down her flag and presented it to Jones. Different times, different men.

• INDIAN OCEAN DISASTER We received sad news today from the office of Mr. Richard M. Bennett. He has been associated with Orbat.com since its inception and we are currently working together on a big new project. He was in the Far East to interview for a university position and due back in the UK. Several of his family members and friends were in the areas struck by the tsunami, and he has had to immediately return to the East

0300 GMT December 29, 2004

• IRAQ Killings of government officers continues. Yesterday the toll included 24 policemen. For a long time now the terrorists have figured out that attacking US forces is unproductive and have been busy killing anyone trying to do something for their country, including professors, teachers, judges, lawyer, what have you. We've still to see a comment decrying this violence in the American papers. Washington Post has - correctly, we feel - written several editorials about Dafur, many of them lead editorials. WP has also said the US must stay the course in Iraq. But when it comes to the terrorists, they have a free pass in the WP.

• OUTDONE AGAIN At Orbat, com we find that every time we take a strong position on an issue, something even worse turns up that makes our example look pathetic. Yesterday we condemned the Associated Press for trafficking with terrorists to get its news. Today Mike Thompson sends us a piece from another blog, which makes AP look like 4th grade naughty boys.

• Apparently AFP was tipped off by insurgents that the latter were going to down an aircraft landing at Baghdad IAP. So off with the terrorists went two of AFP's finest. Turned out that the terrorists had two Strellas (SAM-7s) they were going to fire at a DHL plane. But the terrorists had no clue what DHL meant. The AFP aces helpfully explained DHL meant aircraft carrying mail for American troops. So our heroes shot off their two missiles, with cries of God is Great. Oopsies whopsies said the AFP aces: turned out it was a civilian aircraft - and luckily both missiles missed, said the aces.

• Now lets go through this, as simply as possible, for the great minds at AFP - an agency we regard highly, by the way, so this is not personal like it is for your editor with the Washington Post. We take more of our press services material from AFP than from any other agency. Nonetheless, it appears to us we must speak slowly and clearly, based on our theory the higher the IQ, the lower the common sense.

• Shooting down any civil aircraft is a crime. AFP not just watched while a crime was being committed, its reporters helped the terrorists with information. The reporters are criminally liable in two different ways. Then AFP ran the story, to enhance its prestige and profits, thus benefiting from a crime it participated in as a willing observer and by providing information.

• Now supposing one of us at Orbat.com or among our readers - mere mortals, we - were to do the above. Our first stop would be many lengthy conversations with us as the guests of the FBI, CIA and so on, and our hosts are not known for their gentle touch. Our next stop would be an unbearably unpleasant American jail, committal to which - in our opinion at least - is a state crime. Our stay would be lengthy, and after a few words from the wardens to the trustees, and the trustees to the inmates, we'd be lucky to leave just with a few beatings and being raped a few times. Then we'd be in court, and then we'd be back in jail for many, many years, with the chances of parole being somewhat remote. The Divine forbid our terrorists actually hit the plane and downed it. The situation would be far, far worse for us.

• So is all this happening to AFP? No, Sir, it is not. AFP, like other media, says it was just doing its job, citing the people's right to know and all that. If Orbat.com was to take the matter up with AFP, we have no doubt we would be arrogantly dismissed by AFP as thugs and fascists and all that.

• Okay, so along with others we have ritually done our moaning and weeping at the perfidy of the press. The question is simple. Why are these journalists not being prosecuted, indeed, when they are not helping terrorists, why is the US military being required to keep them alive to the best of its ability? If we go and settle scores with the journalists and AFP for aiding and abetting terrorism, and gaining from such  - and we as people have a right to do that to AFP as much as AFP says the people - that's us - have a right to know - if we settle scores we will be labeled criminals and the state will punish us. So all we can do is ask the state to take action.

• No guesses as to what the state will tell us: freedom of the press and all that, old boy, wuff wuff and hey ho and so on.

• Now when the state refuses to act against criminals, what is our recourse as ordinary citizens? Rousseau said we as people make a pact with the state: we give up some individual rights to the state for the collective good, and in return the state protects us. Seems to us the good old GUS - or USG as us foreigners call it - is failing its duties not just to all of us as citizens of the world, but more appallingly, to its own soldiers who are dying or suffering horrible wounds.

• The state is not keeping its part of the deal, and for once your editor has no answers as to what is to be done.

• IRAQ FOLLIES We're not sure if we should be amused or exasperated, but some US Congressmen and officials are suggesting the Sunnis need not just fair representation in Iraq's parliament, perhaps they should be given more than their fair share of representation so their minority rights are not ridden over rough-shod.

• The Iraq government has not-so-gently told these gentlemen to MYOB - that's sixth grade schoolgirl talk from when your editor was young, and it means "Mind Your Own Business". Good for the Iraqis.

• If the US is so worried about the rights of the Sunnis, we've already said many times: arrange for a federation, ally with the Sunnis and the Kurds, and be done with it. After the Shias take power their first order of business will be to kill every Sunni terrorist/insurgent/sympathizer, and their second order of business will be to kick the US out of Iraq.

• Are we being too cynical on the second point? After all, Iran is Shia, and its easy to concede the US will have no trouble dealing with the semi-secular Iranians who are expected to take power after the mullahs fall. Why can't the same thing happen in Iraq? Well, we suppose it could happen, just as it could happen that your editor wakes up tomorrow and finds a line of desirable young women aged 25 to 45 at his door, each of the women determined to - lets say - get to know your editor better. And if someone says to the editor "in your dreams", your editor will retort: "who's being cynical now?".

• But seriously, are we saying the US made a mistake going into Iraq? Not at all. The job had to be done, the US is the only one that could/can do it. Create the conditions necessary for the Iraqi people to gain and keep their own freedom, and watch the fun and games in the Islamic world. But: the US needs to do the job and get out. If it wants something from Iraq, it has an excellent chance the Kurds will support the US, there's an excellent chance the Sunnis will align with the US, and there is little chance the Shias will oblige.

0530 GMT December 28, 2004

• ANOTHER NO NEWS DAY We're not sure if its the holiday season that is leading to so many slow or no news days one after another, or if the world is going through a temporary phase of quiet. For many of our readers, our analyses are quite boring and we sympathize: we find them as boring to write. But when there is nothing to report, then perhaps there's no harm in throwing in a little analysis.

• ASSOCIATED PRESS IN BED WITH IRAQI TERRORISTS Mike Thompson sends us news that originated with Bill Reggio's Fourth Rail blog that will not surprise anyone who knows non-print media people. Turns out AP has all but admitted that its using Iraqi photo-journalists who are intimate with the terrorists in order to get good pictures. The specific provocation is the picture taken by an Iraqi working for AP of terrorists murdering three Iraqi government workers in the middle of a busy artery in Baghdad. People immediately began asking: how did the Iraqi know to be there at the right time? Turns out the lot planning the murders told him where to come.

• AP says terrorists also want their story to be told, and it has to use Iraqis with ties to the terrorists/insurgents because no one else can get close to them. Hmmmm. So we are back to the delusion of the reporter as a passive neutral without loyalty to any nation or anything else other than Getting the Story. This is one of the most moronic conceits the tribe of journalists has come up with, and the debate has been raging for years now. Suffice it to say that the American people, at least, do not believe their media should be legitimizing terrorists, and this is one reason of money that the American media is steadily losing credibility.

• So: lets hark back to Pearl Harbor, and more specifically to the Bataan Death March. By the moral reasoning of today's media, American journalists should have been right there telling the Japanese side of the story, and Hitler's too, and Stalin's as well, to say nothing of the Japanese soldiers who slaughtered several million Chinese. Oh yes, interviews with the German death camp commandants would have been an absolute must.

• So: what would have happened to our little preppy boys and girls of the AP sixty years ago? The best outcome would have been to get arrested and thus be safe from the mobs of soldiers and civilians that would have been screaming to tear our little intrepid newsboys and newsgirls from limb to limb.

• You are welcome to go out there and report the news from any side you like. But the United States, and the US military in particular, is then under no moral compulsion to help you in any way. By putting forward the enemy's view - these people are killing American soldiers - you become a traitor to America. Sure, sure, you are called to bigger things than America. Your work is so important that national loyalties are petty. But you know what? Don't come crying when an American soldier puts a 5.56mm round through your colleague's head, the next time your are returning from telling the enemy's viewpoint. That soldier has a higher calling too, which is to kill America's enemies. You want to be a whore, please go ahead. Its a free country.

• Sorry - we apologize to the men and women who are whores. They're doing an honest job, and they're not hurting anyone. Wrong simile/metaphor.

• The laughable thing about this value neutral business is that you are living in a democracy, and you demand to be respected/protected. Guess who's going to among the first to get theirs if the terrorists win? The women journalists, and then its going to be the men journalists. Now isn't reporting what the terrorists have to say a productive way to spend your time if you happen to be a journalist? Arrogance we at Orbat.com can forgive. But people with IQs lower than than of a vulture we cannot.

• Ooops. We did it again. Apologies to vultures. Did not mean to hurt your feelings. You are a critical part of nature and  perform a very important function. In doing so you actually help life thrive. Now you journalists please tell us: what function are you performing? Gosh, we cant come up with a single valid simile/metaphor because everyone and everything in creation does something useful. These darn journalists are not making it easy for us to categorize them. Will have to come up with new definitions.

• SAUDI UPS OIL RESERVE ESTIMATES Saudi Arabia says its probable it has 200 billion barrels more oil than its earlier projection of 270 billion barrels reserve, already the biggest in the world.

• Oil production and politics determines the shape of our world to a greater extent than any other factor today, and we truly wish we knew more about the world of oil. An oil executive based overseas had promised to occasionally enlighten our readers, unfortunately, his work load is such aside from one anonymous article he  has been unable to contribute. So please take the below brief analysis as nothing more than at attempt to explain why this news is important.

• Iraq's oil reserves - we believe about 80 billion barrels - are hugely understated. No one knows how much more oil Iraq has, but it may be in the hundreds of billions of barrels. So one aspect of Saudi's announcement is to clearly warn Iraq that no matter how important it thinks it may become, the big guy on the block is Saudi. This is geared not the Iraqis, but to the Americans. The latter have clearly indicated they are working to break OPEC, and have been busy as beavers putting down firm stakes all over the world where there is oil. The US diplomatic and military assistance take over of Black Africa is one example of US diversification .

• Saudi is also to increase its pumping capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day. That is to tell the world that no matter what, Saudi will be the swing producer.

• The message is aimed not just at the Americans. The Russians too are coming up very quickly, and as is the case for Iraq, its likely its oil reserves - or at least its hydrocarbon reserves are vastly understated. Russia plans to build up to an export capacity of 10 million barrels a day with Western money and know how. Saudi, preempting with its 12.5 million target is also reminding the Russians: don't get too big for your boots.

• The huge advantage that Saudi has is that its oil is about the cheapest in the world to extract. If the Saudis crash the market, say to $20-25/barrel, people like the Russians and their western partners will be up the creek etc., because Russian oil is much more expensive. Saudi could lower the price to $10/barrel and still make a tidy profit, that price would ruin just about any non-Arab producer.

• By the way, a few months ago people were talking of $80/barrel oil. Now they're saying in the summer of 2005 it go go down to $25/barrel.  This underlines a very important our oil executive made in his one and only article: one reason no one has developed alternatives is that anything below $40/barrel makes additional investment for oil and alternatives unprofitable. And guess who makes sure oil prices stay just low enough that major investments in alternatives are impossible? None other than our friends the camel jockeys, i.e., the Saudis. Like them or not, they are no one's fools. Any why should that surprise us? Their managers are American or American educated.

• ISLAMIC VERSUS ISLAMIST Richard Pipes of Harvard fame known earlier for his tough stand against the Soviets and now against Islamic fundamentalism, says its wrong to use the term "Islamic" when referring to terrorists. The terrorists are a tiny fraction of followers of Islam; moreover they are perverting Islam simply to establish good old fashioned tyrannies. So Mr. Pipes suggests using the term Islamist. That seems fair and reasonable to us. We've always felt uncomfortable with the Islamic label. Your editor knows many Muslims, and in all his life he has met only one who subscribed to the terrorist creed.

0600 GMT December 27, 2004

• ONE MORE FOR AMERICA With 60% of precincts reporting, the opposition candidate in Ukraine was leading 56% to 40% says AFP. Pre-voting polls had predicted a 15 to 20 point margin of victory. True democracy has come to Ukraine. There are quiet American men and women who played their part in this revolution, doubtless they are giving themselves a few moments to savor their success.

• As for what role exactly the US played, well, its for Americans to tell the story, not for us. We know none of the close details, but we're willing to wager that the cash cost to America was probably between $30 and $50 million, if that. Of course, that's not a fair way of counting costs, because people have been working for years for this day. Still, its likely that over the last decade less has been spent than is spent in one day in Iraq.

• But would this victory have been possible had Ukraine's Government, backed by Russia, decided not to permit a fair vote? In 1956 in Hungary, and in 1968 in Czechoslovakia, Warsaw Pact tanks crushed revolution, just as in 1945-46 Soviet tanks snuffed out many democracies. When hard men play this game, the democratic revolution becomes impossible.

• So it is in Iraq. Does anyone seriously believe the people of Iraq don't want democracy? If they believe that, they are saying Iraqis are less human than other people. Of course the Iraqis want democracy - democracy is the natural condition of humans. But for decades their hopes have been crushed, and if the US had not gone in, their hopes would have remained crushed. Yes, America has material interests in a free Iraq. But America is sacrificing blood and treasure also because America genuinely believes all humanity must have democracy as its right.

• There is no other country in history that has done more to bring freedom to the world. All of us owe a huge debt to America. How sad, then, that so many elites around the world - yes, elites in free countries, countries that America helped free and helped keep free - hate America so much for what it is doing to bring democracy to the world. How sad that so many Americans hate their own country so much that they cannot appreciate or even understand what their country has done for freedom, and what it continues to do.

• Let freedom flow like the waters of a mighty river. The circle of those who would oppress their people diminishes every year. Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine - 2004 has been a very good year indeed. Even if it takes a hundred years to free the Islamic world - and we predict it will take no more than 10 - the outcome is very much worth the cost. Unasked for advice to the petty tyrants in the Islamic world, in North Korea, Cuba, and most of all, in China. Get out of the way while you can, because that onrushing river cannot be stopped, by you or anyone else. Get out of the way or be drowned, and forgotten like a bad dream is when the new day dawns.

• AND THANK YOU, OLD EUROPE  We suppose we could be cynical and say Old Europe did its part - a very major part, perhaps the major part - in bringing freedom to Ukraine because it advances Old Europe's security and because Ukrainians are white. We could also say this victory cost Old Europe very little, but when it comes to freeing yellow, black, or brown people, and where the cost is high, Old Europe is nowhere to be seen.

• There would be much truth in our cynicism. Nonetheless, Old Europe has its idealists too, and regardless of what Old Europe gets from a free Ukraine, it too believes in humanity's right to be free. So from our side, at least, many thanks also to Old Europe. You redeemed yourself in the Balkans, now in Ukraine. By all means sit back a moment and enjoy your drink or your smoke.

• But don't make it more than a moment. The non-white people need you, too. They are humans as much as Ukrainians.  You have a debt to them too, not because of imperialism, but because you are favored and they are not. If you let America go to it alone, America will do so. But for sure America, the oppressed, and us at Orbat.com, would be mighty glad to have you as a partner in this crusade, a crusade not for religion, but for the simple right of people to be free.

0230 GMT December 26, 2005

• AFRICA MILITARY NEWS  [Thanks to BBC] President Bush signed the Sudan Sanctions Bill, which gives him more leverage in forcing Khartoum to settle the Dafur problem peacefully. The President also now has authority to spend $300-million to help Dafur; some of that money will be used to support the African Union force

• UN investigations in Ivory Coast show appalling human rights violations in the last two years by government and rebels alike. Mass executions, loot, rape, and ordinary murder seem to be the all the rage. The evidence includes film coverage, and is to be made available when and if Ivorians from both sides are charged with war crimes.

• Fighting between rival government forces in DR Congo has subsided. Meantime an arms monitoring group says weapons are being freely smuggled across the eastern DRC borders, and blames the UN for not having troops better trained in monitoring arms flows.

• In our opinion, this report's arrogance is breathtaking. While most nations now have troops they train for peace-keeping operations, soldiers are still soldiers. They are trained to fight wars, not monitor arms smuggling in foreign countries, especially where they find themselves under tight rules. The UN does not have any soldiers of its own, and makes do with what it gets. Blaming it for these sort of  perceived shortcomings is mindlessly stupid. We thought reports such as this one were the specialty of Americans, but now must concede that the British - a Parliamentary committee is the author - are right up there with our American friends in the low IQ department. If Parliament feels so strongly about the inadequacies of the 3rd world armies who primarily fill UN missions, why isn't it pushing to send British troops to DRC? Ooops, we forgot: The British are overstretched. But why are they overstretched? Because the same uneducated people who produce these reports also have forced cuts so severe on British forces that one brigade in Iraq and a few battalions in other places around the world has overextended the British Army. We expect very little from the Europeans, but it's sad to see the British go the same way: moral outrage, talk, more hot air, unrealistic solutions, and when the times comes to actually do something, excuse us, please, we have lunch to do. Bah.

• HONDURAS The Government conducted a show of force in several cities as it searched for the persons responsible for the bus atrocity. One man has been arrested; he is a member of a Honduran gang. Apparently there is some sort of competition between his gang and another to see who can kill more civilians. Meanwhile, the Honduran government has been pushing for the right to use the death penalty against gang members, something that upset the gangs. This gives the idea for a new competition: Honduran judges can compete to see who sends more gang members to the gallows.

• In a vague sort of way, we can understand the motives of insurgents and terrorists who target civilians. We cannot understand, or accept, the motives of these gangs. First their members abused the hospitality of the United States and disgraced their communities. Hispanic immigrants are the new Irish in America: they work harder than anyone else and do their absolute best to get a better life for stay-behind family and for their children. But the gang members are scum. After being deported, they now feel they have the right to destroy their own countries. There is only one way to deal with such people just as there is only one to deal with terrorists: kill them before they kill you.

• IRAQ Reader Mike Thompson sends us an article from the Jerusalem Post in which a US officials says the US is contemplating crossing the Syrian border to capture or kill insurgent leaders and insurgents using Syria as sanctuary.

• The nice thing about the US is that it seldom wastes times in idle threats. Yes, this threat is part of psychological campaign against Syria to act against the insurgents. But threats have meaning only if you are willing to follow through. The Syrians as usual are bleating about how no terrorists operate from their territory. If they don't get more serious, readers can expect that the US will make a couple of raids, perhaps without making the news public. Big "Kilroy Was Here" signs will be left to give a hint to Damascus.

• What we don't understand is why the US hasn't smacked Syria a few times already. Something we do know nothing about seems to be in play.

• Incidentally, your editor never thought the day would come when he'd say something nice about Assad, the father of the present president. In a world of serious tyrants, to us he looked like a pathetic tyrant wannabe. His terrorism, his oppression, his corruption hit the people of Syria very hard, but that still left him a nobody compared to other tyrants. But watching the bumbling of the son, we have to say whatever the old boy's faults, he was tough and ruthless, he played for high stakes, and he survived. The son is such a buffoon and such a puff pastry that Hollywood should be offering him deals to forget Syria and come act in slapstick movies. One can respect a hard man, however evil. One cannot respect a leader who looks like he'd be happier dressing in womens' clothes than running a dictatorship. We have the same problem with DPRK's Beloved Son. Anyone who forces the state media to constantly affirm he was born on a mountaintop by divine means, and the whole swans and flowers and rainbows bit, needs serious professional help. This supposed to be the 21st Century. Why are we tolerating people like Beloved Son and Assad Junior? Lets display some good taste by seeing them off the world stage.

• US has captured two senior Zaraqawi aides in Iraq.

• A few hundred Fallujah residents have been allowed inside the city. Apparently most take one look at their house and their neighborhood and get the heck back out of Fallujah. From the pictures we've seen, cant say we blame them.

• Quite by-the-way. When US troops were fighting in Fallujah last month, a big worry was booby-trapped cars left behind by the insurgents. The US had a simple solution: every single car parked in Fallujah was shredded before US troops entered the street. Now, finally something the Americans have done something that we can feel pleased about. This is the way Americans used to work in their nothing-can-stop-us and no-problem and can-do days. Simple, innovative, big solutions.

0330 GMT December 25, 2004

• HONDURAS VIOLENCE AP reports that the criminal underworld in Honduras, which claims 100,000 gang members, attacked a public bus killing 28 civilians. The attack is seen as an escalation against the government's zero-tolerance policy against gangs.

• We mention this incident for two reasons. First we had narco-terrorism, then came fundamentalist Islamic terrorism, and now we have plain criminal terrorism. This is a new dimension to the security threats to nation-states.

• And we wonder how much of the Honduras problem with gangs is an outcome of the Law of Unintended Consequences. The sharp rise in legal and illegal Hispanic immigration into the United States has led, over the last two decades, to the formation of hundreds of Hispanic gangs with total memberships running into the hundreds of thousands. The US has cracked down hard, and any arrested gang member who is not a US citizen is deported after serving his sentence. So we have tens of thousands of young men, hardened in the US, now back in their own countries where policing is not as effective as in the United States. No surprise that they have gone back to doing the only thing they know how to do, which is organized crime.

• The United States, as is well known, has an ability to tolerate serious crime at levels that would bring down any other western government. The reasons for this are complex. In the interests of political correctness, Americans are not permitted to state the obvious. If you take murder, for example, and separate the rates for whites and non-whites, you will find US rates for murder committed by whites is in line with other countries where guns are easily available, such as Canada and Australia. The same thing goes for drugs: the great majority of persons in jail for drugs are non-white. We are not interested in getting into a debate about the socio-economic reasons for this. Your editor lived/worked in an all-minority, specifically in a black American, environment for 10 years and he has intimate knowledge of the problems blacks face and of the problems they create for themselves. We are merely pointing out some facts.

• We mention this primarily from a national security viewpoint. Crime has gone global, multi-cultural, internet age etc etc. A big part of the insurgency in Iraq is tied up with criminal organizations; we hear it said that European organizations are getting involved. And fighting well-organized gangs these days is harder than fighting insurgencies.

•  RUSSIA FIRES TOPOL-M The 4th last test of the Russian Topol-M mobile ICBM has taken place. Russia has 40 missiles deployed, a minute number compared to what it could have deployed in the days of empire. Money is so short that acquiring even 3-6 a year has proved difficult. But with Mr. Putin vowing to get respect for Russia, it is possible that the deployment rate will pickup. The new missile the Russians have been threatening may be a development of the Topol-M. Presently the missile carries a single warhead, the design permits a MIRV payload of three warheads. If readers suspect that all this activity on the almost defunct Russian strategic weapons programs has something also to do with the activation of the US ABM system, we'd guess they suspect correctly.

• Incidentally, if you want to talk about deploying weapons without full testing, talk to a Russian scientist or military person. The stories they will tell will raise the hair of most normal people. The point is that critics of the US ABM system would do well to heed Admiral Gorshkov's famous saying: "Better is the enemy of good enough". If US critics not just of the ABM system but any big weapons program were to have their way, the systems would be deployed just in time to become obsolete.

• US F-22 and B-2 PROGRAMS Reader Paul Danish asks us to remind everyone that the B-2 cost of $1 billion per unit is a program cost; but we are uncertain as to how many years of spares are included in that figure. He also notes that the F-22 program was intended for purchase of 720 aircraft. If the US is going to buy half as many, the cost per fighter is going to go up by four times.

• This is a story retold again and again. Part of the reason for program escalation costs is that the US military aims for giant leaps in capability rather than incremental ones, and many of the technologies needed work out to be much more difficult and expensive than first assumed. The lack of competition in the weapons field is another factor. But a third big factor is the constant attack every weapons program goes through: with ultra-critical scrutiny being the norm, its quite routine for anti-military interests to force cuts in programs, which pushes up the cost, which leads to more cuts.

• By no means do we imply our simplistic framework is all there is on the issue. Nonetheless, we get truly bugged when people start saying: "This is not needed because the Soviet threat is not there." Fair enough, but how long as you going to keep F-15s and F-16s flying? A machine wears down despite the best maintenance. Your editor's sub-compact car is all he needs by way of performance. Immaculately maintained, and carefully driven, the car is in its sixth trouble-free year. But some day that car is going to have to be replaced - hopefully it will be at the same time as your editor is unable to drive anymore thanks to old age vision impairment. Ditto fighter aircraft.

• And if US anti-military spending people think that with the Soviet empire having gone into history's dustbin America needs no more big ticket weapons, they need to think again. Clue: we're talking about the 5-letter name of a country.

1230 GMT December 23, 2004   Updated 1100 GMT December 23, 2004

• FIRST PALESTINE VOTE IN 28 YEARS Agencies say Palestine went to the polls for municipal elections, for the first time in 28 years. AFP adds this is the first time the radical militant group Hamas has voted in an election. The election is seen as practice for the Prime Ministerial election scheduled for January.

• PUTIN CONFIRMS STATE BOUGHT YUKOS President Putin confirms that the state purchased the oil giant Yukos. We personally think he was a bit over the top in saying "absolutely legal" means were used. The "company" that bought Yukos as a sole bidder is headquartered in a small shop in a provincial city, and had never been heard from before.

• Certainly we at Orbat.com are not upset about the murky dealing surrounding Yukos. The company was created by looting state assets, it was run to loot the banks and minority shareholders, and if it has been looted back by the state, we're not about to shed tears. At the same time, there is an ugly rumor that state bureaucrats banded together to "buy" Yukos, and will sell it to the state and enrich themselves by several billion dollars. If it is true, then we think it will reflect badly on Mr. Putin and his nationalism.

• MOSUL ARMY BASE BLAST MAY BE SUICIDE BOMBER'S WORK US authorities now believe the blast at the US Army base in Mosul may have been the work of a suicide bomber, and not rockets or mortar fire.

• Naturally there is much media weeping and wailing about how the suicide bomber got through security. No doubt that needs the most careful investigation. This however, is a war. With near 350,000 US and Iraqi forces, plus contractors, mistakes are inevitable. That is life.

• What disturbs us is another matter altogether. The base dining facility with a reinforced concrete roof is still under construction. Now, if this was a car/truck bomb, the reinforced roof wouldn't have mattered. But it seems to us the US Government and senior military are "fighting" [Think Austin Powers] this war at a lazy, comfortable peacetime rate.

• We will be told about how the job couldn't be done any faster because of contracting rules and the need to hire reliable local managers and workers and so on until the cows come home and die of old age.

• The real reason that dining hall is not finished is the US Army no longer has the military construction engineering capability it has had in past wars. This is another critical support function that has been outsourced.

• If the US Government and the Pentagon are going to now organize for wars as if they were a civil corporation and cash cost-effectiveness is primary, then we have a word of advice for American soldiers. Take it for granted you will not be looked after, and leave the military as soon as you can.

• Word of advice for the US people: if you support a system that tries to save a buck and then ends up paying ten more, and costs lives in the bargain, you need to get out of the war business. You are equally responsible for Mosul and all the other Iraq disasters, because this is your government, and your Pentagon, that is fighting the war.

• As a start it will help if the media examine their own role in creating a system where a dining hall is not ready 21 months after the war began.

• F-22 COSTS SOAR PAST $250-MILLION EACH F-22 Raptor costs have escalated to the point that, by our estimate, a squadron of 25 aircraft (18 UE, the rest as wastage and maintenance reserves) is going to cost $6-billion+. In case readers wonder why we highlight this aspect and not the F-22 crash during a flight, it is because we do not consider the crash to be of any significance. The Raptor is an immensely complex new aircraft. Aircraft crash all the time. Some financial and defense analysts have been getting hysterical about the blow to the Raptor program, leaving as at Orbat.com to scratch our heads at the sanity of these people.

• Our hassle is the price. The B-2's price eventually escalated past $1-billion per aircraft - of course, that includes all sorts of thing other than the aircraft itself. Accordingly, 20 were purchased and not many more. The aircraft is a wonder: with 200 in the inventory, the US could have precisely attacked 3000 targets at a time, effectively putting any country out of business in a day.

• We've no doubt the Raptor is every bit as good as claimed, probably better, because the Americans - contrary to popular belief - actually do conceal a great deal of defense-related information. But if the USAF is going to end up with one wing rather than four - more may have been planned, we forget now - than the whole exercise becomes a bit pointless.

• Incidentally, the above story in the Washington Post also noted the USAF lost nine aircraft last year. That is so astonishingly low a loss rate that it beggers the imagination.

• N. IRELAND RECORD BANK ROBBERY [Warning: this story has nothing to with defense but it did catch yuor editor's eye.] When push comes to shove your editor never emotionally developed past 6th grade, and he was thrilled to hear that a gang had walked off with $42-million from a Northern Ireland bank.

• Then he learned the way the heist was conducted. The robbers kidnapped two key executives who had access to the vaults. They did not threaten to kill the executives if cooperation was not given - they kidnapped a bunch of relatives including a spouse and threatened to kill them. Now, gentlemen, whoever you are. What you did completely negates any skill or honor as thieves. You all are just a bunch of domestic terrorists. 100 marks deducted from each of your balance sheets, which puts you to zero as we'd given you 100 of 100 for the robbery.

• What followed would normally be an ironic twist that still would not affect the marks. About half the money is in brand new notes, the serials of which are on record. The other half is in an odd sort of money we've never before heard about. These pounds work in the Irish Republic but are not commonly accepted in the UK, so its not going to be easy to spend them. It may be near impossible to spend them in any substantial amount because everyone will be watching people who bring suitcases of cash to the shopping mall.

• So all your effort, gentlemen, has gone to naught. Maybe you can use the notes to feed the fireplace in the depths of winter? Couldn't have happened to nicer people.

• MORE NEWS AT 1200 HRS.

1100 GMT December 22, 2004

• ISRAELI SETTLERS TO RESIST EVACUATION Agencies say hard-line Israeli settlers will resist evacuation from Gaza. There has been criticism of some settlers who have demonstrated wearing yellow stars and comparing the relocation to the Shoah, the word used by the Jewish people for the Holocaust.

• Orbat.com opinion. There seems to be a genuine fear in Israel that the evacuation is going to create trouble in the Israeli Army. Some rabbis, for example, have called for the Army to resist what they say are illegal orders to forcibly remove settlers who do not follow the evacuation orders. We are not sufficiently informed on the situation to comment on the situation vis-a-vis the army.

• In the past, we have been troubled by Prime Minister Sharon's complete bullheadness and refusal to be reasonable. In fairness to him, we have to say that, in our opinion, these very qualities are what is needed now. Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of Israel occupying Palestine land, Israel cannot afford to continue the prodigious expenditure of money and troops numbers to protect a few ten thousand settlers.

• DAFUR CRISIS COOLS The fighting in Dafur seems to have ceased, with both sides pledging to avoid combat. Peace talks are to resume in January 2005. Frankly, it seemed to us that there wasn't much fighting to begin with and that the situation had been blown up thanks to dramatic announcements by the Governments, the rebels, and the African Union contingent. AU troops on the ground still number only one quarter of the sanctioned 3200, a figure itself that is hopelessly low if the security of Dafuris is to be reasonably assured.

• PAKISTAN REARRESTS EX-PM's HUSBAND Jang of Pakistan has said that the husband of ex-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has been rearrested, ostensibly because he failed to appear for a court hearing in a murder case he is charged with instigating.

• The government appears, to us, to be within its technical rights to rearrest him: he did not arrange in advance for permission to be excused personal attendance, and the trial judge refused to grant the last-minute petition for an excused absence.

• While we shed no tears for Mrs. Bhutto's husband, we are somewhat concerned by his return to custody after having already served 8 years under arrest. He is one of the most corrupt persons anywhere in the world who never failed to take advantage of his wife's position. At the same time, there have been, and continue to be, corrupt people in power who need to be arrested, and we feel they have no moral standing to go all righteous about what is for a person of his stature a minor infraction of the law. We also don't understand the politics behind this move: just the other day President Musharraf's government was calling for the return from exile of Mrs. Bhutto, saying it was sure the courts would grant her and her husband some "relief" against numerous criminal charges pending against the couple. The rearrest is not likely to enhance Mrs. Bhutto's confidence in the government's promises, and if likely to further damage Pakistan's already fractured polity.

• Incidentally, before anyone gets overcome by a rearrest after 8 years in custody, the husband was, and again is, actually under house arrest and likely being treated with kid gloves. As for the term in custody, cases in South Asia go on for years and decades without resolution. We believe the husband has been convicted on some charges, and the judgments are under appeal.

• US SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHES SUPER HEAVY BOOSTER In a development of great interest to the military, the US successfully launched the Delta 4 Heavy. The rocket is intended to put super-heavy military payloads into orbit, and is a replacement for payloads that were scheduled to go on the Space Shuttle. The Shuttle delays have very seriously hurt the US military-in-space program. It is being said that the Delta 4 Heavy is the most complex vehicle to be launched into space, exceeded in complexity only by the shuttle itself.

0300 GMT December 21, 2004

• SNIPPETS So far its been a slow news day. A few items of interest from the global media:

• 2 of 3 Japanese believe DPRK should be sanctioned because of the games Pyongyang ahs been playing on the return of abductees. Most recently DPRK returned the ashes of an abductee who, it said, had died in North Korea. Turned out the DNA did not match and the Japanese are seething with fury. Simultaneously, 3 of 4 Japanese say they do not understand why the duty tour of the Japanese contingent to Iraq has been extended.

• 48% of Americans believe that restrictions should be imposed on Muslims in America - we presume this includes Muslims applying for an American visa or travelling to the US.

• Military.com says a US company has developed new body armor that can stop an AK-47 bullet at 15-feet, with minimum "deforming" of the armor. That in turn reduces the chances of an injury.

• Military.com also says the US is working on ways to increase its infantry strength, if necessary by "borrowing" recruit spaces from the Navy and Air Force. These two services are working on a restructuring of their establishments to meet the realities of the new war. The Navy, for example, is thinking of reducing its carrier battle groups from 12 to 9. The Air Force is to make major reductions in its purchases of new combat aircraft.

• The US 3rd Infantry Division is returning to Iraq. Interestingly, the division is not going in as a light force, but as a full scale mechanized division including its SP Artillery. All "soft" vehicles in the division have been armored; the only soft vehicles will be those confined to army bases. This is a quiet but important setback for the Rumsfeld Doctrine which - readers will recall - calls for small numbers of  light infantry working with heavy application of airpower. The Rumsfeld model worked very well in Afghanistan: the US had hardly any combat troops on the ground when it attacked and destroyed the Taliban army. But what Mr. R perhaps forgot was that there may not have been more than a few hundred US ground soldiers involved, but there were tens of thousands of Afghan forces present participating in the war. This situation did not replicate itself in Iraq.

• After the rising criticism in the US Congress of Mr. Rumsfeld comes support for him not just from Mr. Bush, but from many Congressmen who say he should not be replaced at such a crucial time. It seems many Congressmen are as concerned about the military transformation Mr. Rumsfeld is pushing through as they are about Iraq, and feel only he can push through the radical changes required.

• At which point, we ask readers to refer back to the 3rd Infantry Division story, and we will excuse any who asks" What changes? The 3rd is going to war even more heavily armored than it was at the height of the Soviet threat". As for the immense changes coming about because of electronics, sensors, and remote devices, that has nothing to do with Mr. Rumsfeld. It is the culmination of three decades worth of work US military R and D have been putting in, and the changes this is bringing about would have been embraced with or without Mr. Rumsfeld.

• Saddam says the Iraq elections are a US plot to split the country along ethnic and religious lines. Perhaps. We have opined many times that only a 3-way split has any chance of bringing peace to Iraq. The peace Saddam and his predecessors imposed was the peace of the grave. Iraq is an artificial creation; moreover, it was Caliphate policy to have the Sunni minority rule the country by oppressing everyone else. In case Saddam has not noticed, the Caliphate ended almost 90 years ago. Yugoslavia was an artificial creation after the First World War; the west, and the majority of Yugoslavs, have decided that it could not work today, and so we have six states where one once stood. We are mildly amused that some US establishment people are taking up the theme, though usually with a confederation scenario - defense, foreign affairs, internal and external trade reserved to Baghdad, everything else to the three confederating states.

• CNN reminds us that 15 of 18 Iraqi provinces are peaceful. Thank you CNN, and we at Orbat.com are putting a credit in your account. We will let one foolish statement of yours go without making fun of you.

• Beijing wants to pass a new law making secession illegal. The media says its to give Beijing the legal basis for annulling ROC's de facto secession. This report, we must confess, quite baffled us. If PRC has to pass a new law, wouldn't that imply that secession is legal at present? And in any case, you cannot date these things retroactively or there is no end to it. Its a bit like the British Parliament passing a law saying the US secession from the Empire is illegal. [We put this thought to a British friend. His response: "Are you mad? No one in Britain wants the US back; rather, we all wish the US would simply go away, to another dimension or something like that." An uncharitable feeling, but we do have to admit America can get on everyone's nerves by insisting democracy is the right of every person on earth and other inconvenient ideas that disturb "Old Europe's" tranquility.

• The thing people forget is America has always been a revolutionary state. Because of the USSR and China, between 1950-1990 America was forced to become a reactionary state. At a time America believed it was in a fight to the death against communism, it had no choice but back any regime that pledged enmity to communism. Survival was more important than ideology, and America was correct in this. After all, we don't hear the Europeans slamming the UK and US for allying with Stalin to defeat Hitler during the Second World War. Hitler was such a scourge that had the Devil herself offered Europe she would get rid of Hitler, and as a price demand she be worshipped, we believe most Europeans would have made that pact - holding crossed fingers behind their backs.

• So enormous is the European intellectuals' hatred of America that they forget in 1975, most of the world was not free. In 2005 most of it is free, though time will elapse before people like Turkmenistan meet Westminster standards. The revolution was begun by Jimmy Carter at a time the Soviet threat had never seemed darker, and it has been followed by every US president since.

• If the Europeans would understand the revolutionary drives that motivate America - and we have talked to many Europeans who do so understand - they wouldn't be going ballistic about Iraq. "Revolution: That's What We Do ^{TM and ©}". In the event anyone wonders about the Trade Mark and Copyrighted, Orbat.com has claimed the right to the slogan and is filing the necessary paperwork.

0200 GMT December 20, 2004

• YUKOS SOLD TO MYSTERY BUYER AFP reports that Yukos Oil was sold for 9.3 billion dollars to an unknown company suspected of being a front for the state-owned energy giant Gazprom. The latter is already in the process of taking over another privately owned oil company; with Yukos in its fold it will become the largest global energy group.

• Orbat.com comment: Russia seems to discover huge oil reserves with nonchalant frequency. Some say with the proper investment and management, Russia could export 10 million barrels a day within 5 years. If that happens, Russia could become the dominant determinator of oil prices. OPEC, of course, exports about twice as much. Yet, OPEC is a collection of countries often at odds with each other. If oil exports from Russia come from government owned companies, then by 2010 we could get into some very interesting and uncharted waters where oil is concerned.

• CONFLICTING NEWS FROM DAFUR  First we learned that yesterday Khartoum had agreed to cease its latest Dafur offensive. Then we were told that fighting was still underway.

• WASHINGTON POST SAYS SOMETHING POSITIVE ABOUT US MILITARY   Your editor has been chewing anti-acids all of yesterday. The Washington Post produced a story on US Army efforts to provide services for the people of Sammara, another hot bed of insurgency in Iraq. Post detailed how US has been rebuilding schools, providing supplies, making health care possible etc., and the enthusiasm with which US troops are greeted by kids wherever the army. Nonetheless, Post then reverts to its usual "neutral" position in detailing how insurgents are continually destroying what the US Army has put up. Not a word of condemnation for the insurgents. So your editor cheered up quite a bit to see despite its gallant effort to tell the truth about Iraq for once, the Post is still the Post.

• Post also carried a factual article about US air operations over Iraq. No cheap personalizations - "Captain ABC climbs confidentially into his F-15 cockpit..." that sort of rot. No false weeping and moaning about collateral damage. The article reports that US PGMs have been scoring an 80-90% success rate - success being measured by the PGM hitting the target exactly as planned. Your editor was waiting for a "the US claims extraordinary accuracy for its PGMs but despite these claims we have learned 1 of 5 PGMs miss their targets. This is disturbing..." cut to family sitting around a bombed house "'What accuracy?' scoffs Fallujah resident XYZ as he sits mourning on the rubble of his life's work, 'Do you see any insurgents here? We never see insurgents here. Why did the Americans have to come and kill us, and the world says nothing? Where is this freedom Americans say they have given us? The Americans have not done one thing for us..'" etc etc  But none of the above happened.

• A figure of interest. It is still taking the US 44 hours of lead time to work up the master plan for a day's operations. We don't know know under what conditions that 44 hour figure is given. We seem to recall in Gulf I the Air Tasking Orders used to be cut and delivered within 24 hours for the next day. The US has been meeting the need for quick Close Air Support by keeping aircraft up around the clock over problem areas. And, of course, the US has the ability to clear the most politically sensitive targets of opportunity with the White House and put bombs over the target within 4-6 hours. This assumes a cold start; if the aircraft required are already airborne, then a 25 minute lead is required for bombs over target according to the article.

• PORT AU PRINCE DESCENDING INTO CHAOS AGAIN Apparently armed gangs are again creating increasing problems of security in the Haiti capital. Reuters reports Sri Lanka UN troops trying to retake a police station that has been overrun by thugs were forced to retreat.

• Before anyone gets into any judgments about Sri Lankan soldiers etc., please remember the Sri Lanka Army has been at war more or less for 15+ years. It has a lot of experience. But troops specially trained for peacekeeping and operating under tight rules of engagement are often unable to perform well even against rag-tag militias and the like.

• We recall a story from decades ago about an outpost of Indian troops in Gaza as part of UNEF being surrounded by a large number of Israeli soldiers and forced to standby without reacting as the Israelis snatched their rifles. Indian soldiers do not make a habit of handing over their rifles to the first passerby who asks. With clear instructions, they will fight regardless of the odds against them. But  they were under the strictest of orders not to let the Israelis provoke them into opening fire. Some of the men were crying with frustration and anger when they returned to base. As good soldiers, they had complied with orders, but they could not so calmly shrug their shoulders and say "well, we weren't dishonored, not really, because we were told not to fire unless fired on".

• The Americans don't have similar problems not only because they are good soldiers, but because they don't accept anyone's rules but their own. During the first Haiti intervention, a Marine rifle squad gunned down 12-13 Haitian policemen when one policeman pointed a rifle at them. Pointed a rifle, mind you, not opened fire. The policemen had 3 rifles between them. The Marines were backed up all the way to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, who issued some asinine statement about the Haitians learning what happens to them when they confront a well-trained US Marine squad. Had UN Danish or Pakistani or Rwandan troops pulled a stunt like that, there would have been heck to pay - led by the US media.

• Because the US operates by its own rules, it is absolutely against giving any international court jurisdiction over its troops. On the one hand, your editor believes the US is doing 100% the right thing here. On the other hand, its not right to scoff at other troops who have to follow a very different set of rules.

0400 GMT December 18, 2004

• IRANIAN ACADEMIC SPEAKS OF STRATEGY Mike Thompson sends us an article written by an Iranian academic at Teheran University, detailing the "assymetric" war Iran will wage if attacked by the US. Most of the information is garbage and shows only the Iran general staff, despite its claims of having studied US operations, is quite ignorant about its adversary. One point of interest emerges: Iran, says the academic, will use chemical and biological weapons.

• Possibly Iran things these threats will make the US think twice about attacking. First, the US is not going going to attack in any conventional manner. Second, if Iran uses CBWs, they will be handing their own heads over to the US on a plate. Certainly we cannot claim any real knowledge about US retaliation, but we have no doubt it will not be pretty.

• ISRAEL BUSY ATTEMPTING TO FOOL US AGAIN Let's call a spade a spade. Israel took the US but good on Saddam's WMDs. Maybe Saddam had them and maybe he didn't, but Israel certainly convinced important people in the US that he did have them. The US had its own strategic objectives in invading Iraq, yet it would be foolish of us to deny one reason was to remove Israel's biggest and most immediate threat.

• Now the Israelis are trying to sell another Empire State Building to the US. The Iranian nuclear program is so huge, say the Israelis, that its dispersed over 350 facilities. Helpless little ol' us cannot do such a big job, but Sam, you gorgeous hunk of manhood, you can do it - eyelashes go bat-bat-bat.

• Bosh and nonsense. The target list is not 350 facilities, its three facilities, and Israel could knock them out any time it wanted. Naturally the military part of the mission is not cost-free, the political fallout is, of course, so huge that its understandable Israel would rather the US do the job.

• Why bother when Sam the Man is straining at the leash, raring to go, ready to sink his salivating jaws into the Iranian tushie? Butter him up a bit, feed him a bit more misleading "intelligence", and off he'll go while Israel does what Israel did when the US was polishing off Saddam - change into its swimsuit, psoition itself to advantage at the pool side, paint its lovely toenails, sigh languidly, order another martini, and arrange something better to do with its evening than fight a horrible mucky gross filthy war.

• The question is not what Israel is up to. Its barely making an effort to even pretend to subtlety in influencing Washington. The question is, is Israel going to succeed?

• Your editor is now going to make a few comments that are his own, and that will definitely earn him many smacks on the hands from friends of Israel - your editor is one too, but one does not have to be blind to the faults of a friend in order to be a friend. Here goes:

• No responsible US intelligence agency or agent ever takes a anything Israel says without a 40-ton wagon of salt. American intel is quite aware of Israel's attempts to pull the wool over its eyes. So if this is so, what happened in the case of Saddam and the WMDs? Wasn't the US fooled?

• Well, actually no. But what the Israelis managed was to get the information to people they knew would read it the way Israel wanted, regardless of what US intel was saying. An end run, so as to speak. In a large sense this all is irrelevant, because WMD or not, the US needed to attack Iraq as part of its overall global strategy. Who were these people? Let's just say - wink-wink-nod-nod - that our lips are sealed.

• Is the US being fooled by Israel on the 350 facilities business? US intel, we can assert for a fact, is not the least bit being taken in. Here again, however, the US has its own reasons for disarming Iran. Its not just the Israelis know this, the Europeans know it too.

• So everyone is pulling a "Canadian" on America. Its just as vital for us to see Iran does not go nuclear, but since we know the US will do the job for us, why offer to pitch in? In fact, we win both ways, because we get to tell the Iranian how much we hate those crude Yanks and how we're doing our best to restrain the madmen in Washington.

• This game is called real politick. We earlier mentioned that any US ABM defense will also protect Canada en passant, so why should the Canadians get their hands dirty by agreeing to help the US?

• Two problems with the Israeli/European approach. First, its immoral. We can hear the French laughing at us across the Atlantic. Moral? Gosh, what a naif petite. There's no morality in foreign affairs! Get a life, Orbat.com!

• That leads us to the second problem. America was founded on the principle of enlightened self-interest. People would do the right thing, the moral thing, because it was in their self-interest to so do. By and large, Americans have respected this principle, even if sometimes they weren't clear on what their self-interest was (think Indochina II).

• But if you're going to play the game, so can the Americans. They're already doing it in the case of the DPRK nuclear weapons program. America is acting blase because it knows the danger to the neighborhood - Japan, ROK, Russia, China, is far greater than the danger to America. These countries have been playing little kids-put-on-their-daddy's size 20 boots and trying to act tough with the US, in part because they figure the US will have to kill the program in its own interest, and they can escape the political/military costs.

• The Americans, however, are playing hard ball. You're going to have to help us, they're telling Moscow, Beijing, and Tokyo. If you aren't going to help us, well, we'll just sit in the easy chair and smoke a nice cigar, and we'll wait for you to come begging.

• The same thing applies in the case of Iran. The threat is greatest to Israel, and then to the Europeans. America is least threatened of all.

• Unasked advice to the Israelis and the Europeans. Don't automatically assume you can manipulate Sam to your own ends. If you're not going to play your part, Washington is prepared to stand aside till you come begging.

• The terms will less favorable then.

 

1130 GMT December 17, 2004 CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS WANT RUMSFELD TO RESIGN US media says the Republicans increasingly want US Defense Secretary to resign. A top neo-con idealog, William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard wrote a slashing attack on Rumsfeld in the Washington Post. Several Senators have expressed growing unhappiness. In your editor's opinion, the catalyzing point is a relatively minor one. Rumsfeld is well known for his quips. In Iraq he was asked about the shortage of armor for the standard US utility light vehicle, the Hummer, and he responded by saying you go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you want. This, of course, is perfectly true. Moreover, the US Army goes to extraordinary lengths to protect its soldiers. Nonetheless, because the US is a media-driven society, Rumsfeld's comment was taken as callous and offensive, and has provided a rallying point for the extensive but so far diffuse opposition to him. This said, you editor is perfectly aware Americans will judge the state of their equipment by their own standard, not that of other countries. That standard is so high that the UN usually does not want the US to be part of a peacekeeping force: no one else can meet the standard. That said, one is forced to question why armored vehicles are lacking. It is true US factories are working 3 shifts to produce the armored version of the Humvee. It is also true the Humvee is a 1-1/2 ton jeep, not an AFV. But if more armored vehicles are needed, why have not more M-1s and Bradleys been sent? Why has the US let its military industrial capacity deteriorate to the point that 18 months after the need for more heavily armored vehicles became apparent, sufficient numbers are not available? The issue is not as simple as we may have made out. With the Washington Post and its sorry ilk around to pounce on every extra dollar spent in the name of urgency, its easy to see a situation noone wanted to take the responsibility for ordering an all out - which means no-expenses spared - effort on this issue. Nonetheless, the issue is not so much the Humvees as Mr. Rumsfeld's casual and dogmatic approach to fighting the Iraq war. US ARMY GUARD TO ASK FOR MORE MONEY To meet recruiting shortfalls caused by the Iraq War and the strain imposed on Guard units, the Guard is to triple recruiters, increase reenlistment bonuses, and request $20 billion to replace equipment that is worn out and lost. There are two sides to the issue of Guard retention. First, it is indeed unprecedented for the Guard to be kept mobilized in lieu of regulars, in a situation short of a direct threat to the US. Conversely, the Guard has met its recruit targets in the past because of lavish perks for relatively little sacrifice on the recruit's part. The most well known is the money the Guard gives enlistees to go to college, which is a huge expense in the US. It does offer ordinary people who would otherwise not be able to learn marketable skills, earn a degree, and put away some money to better themselves. Yet, we at Orbat.com do have to agree with the "what's the emergency?" argument. The burden of this war is touching 99% of Americans not at all; most Guard members find it hard to make ends meet when they are recalled from their civilians jobs, and many return to no job or to lower-paying positions because athe same job they eft is not assured. US ABM INTERCEPTOR WAS SHUT DOWN To opponents of the US ABM program this may seem a distinction without a difference, but reader Mike Thompson forwards the news that the ABM interceptor did not fail to launch: it was shut down because an anomaly would have led to the loss of telemetric data from the booster. In an operational situation no one would be interested in telemetric data, so the missile would have been fired anyway. The idea of a weapon system is not that it work perfectly each and every time, but that overall it does what its supposed to do despite failure of parts of the system. And in a situation where adversaries are deploying missile capable of attacking the US, it is important to "go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you wish". The way the US calculates readiness of a new weapon system, people like the Russians and Chinese would never get to deploy anything more complex than a rifle. CANADA GRACIOUSLY PERMITS US TO DEFEND IT  The Canadian government has said it will participate in the US ABM shield only if it does not have to put up any money, give up land for ABM installations, and has a complete say in when and how the system is used. This is the Canadians' way of telling the US "Fuggedboutit". Its ruthless self-interest, because any shield that protects the US will also automatically protect Canada. Many Canadians feel their government's policy is selfish and morally wrong, but there it is. US and defense are not words that go over well with most Canadians today, thanks to the Iraq war. In any case, Canada is heading for a de facto unarmed pacifism as it continues to finish off what little remains of its military.

0400 GMT December 16, 2004 PALESTINE MILITANTS WONT RENOUNCE VIOLENCE Reacting to a call by Palestine's interim prime minister and likely winner of next month's election to shun violence, Palestine militant groups say they will not lay down arms. So we may get back to the cycle of the years since Oslo, with the government trying to rein in militants and unable to do so to Israel's satisfaction, followed by attacks on Palestine which undercut the government's authority. There is one big difference this time. Abu Mazan, the Prime Minister, sincerely wants peace and is unlikely to play the double, triple, and quadruple double crosses that Arafat specialized in. So its likely Israel will raise the level it feels the Palestine government is not doing enough to stop the violence. In the meanwhile, both the US and the EU are determined to get the Syrians out of Lebanon, and the US at least is ready to crack down on Iranian intervention in regional affairs. Both measures will weaken the ability of rejectionist militant groups to operate. CUBA'S EXERCISE "BASTION" Reader Mike Thompson sends us details of Cuba's Exercise Bastion, and we supplement those with details from an AFP report. The exercise lasts for one week, and involves  100,000 regulars plus 400,000 reservists, and 4 million militia. The island state has a population of 11 million people. What Cuba wants from this exercise is unclear: all we can say for sure it is a massive propaganda play. Obviously the US is not going to invade Cuba - it didn't 43 years ago, and it even failed to support the operation it had organized around Cuban exiles. So is Castro aiming at internal enemies? Is he demonstrating to the US that the old tiger is not toothless? Whatever the reason, he is giving the US a great opportunity to update its orbats for Cuba plus an enormous amount of other vital information. Given Cuba is destitute, how is it paying for this huge exercise? If we look closer, it should not be that expensive. Sending the militia out to pull rifles from armories and have them shoot off - say - 5-10 rounds each and fire a few mortar shells etc is not a financial big deal. Ditto with the Army. Much of Cuba's equipment has in any case been in storage, so running trucks and tanks around for a week - or a few hours in the week, should not be expensive either. The Air Force has almost stopped flying. To give a handful of pilots a few short-duration sorties is also not going to bankrupt the treasury. Meanwhile the film/video crews will be busy taking a few shots, and the state TV will again and again run clips of marching thousands and a dozen artillery pieces firing off a few rounds, and a couple of jets taking off, a few helicopters inserting infantry, 3-4 transports dropping paratroopers, gunboats racing around, etc etc. We forget the name of the Hollywood director or special effects master who said he needed only 17 men to simulate an army of thousands. Likely Orbat.info will not get any real details for some months, and even then it may not be able to share details with Orbat.com, but your editor, at least, will keep an eye open.  PRC TO SELL 2nd 300-MW REACTOR TO PAKISTAN AFP says Beijing has agreed to sell and help partially finance a second 300-MW power production reactor at Chasma. For Pakistan, a 300-MW reactor is equivalent to 2,000-MW for India in terms of impact on the economy, so it an important deal. We are not going to discuss Chasma II in terms of proliferation: it would be foolish and wasteful of Pakistan to try and trick the US and the IAEA by using Chasma II for weapons grade plutonium when it has an unsafeguarded reactor doing its shakedowns. The 40-MW reactor can give Pakistan sufficient plutonium for 3-5 warheads per decade - we are talking in practical engineering terms, not the theoretical figures arms control advocates like to use. Rather, the significance lies in Chasma II as a manifestation of the ever-deepening strategic ties between the two countries. A development that seems to have passed noticed is one Chinese foot is firmly planted in Gwader, near the entrance to the Persian Gulf; another is planted in Bangladesh and off Bangladesh. China wants to control its oil lanes, outflank India, and buttress Pakistan. And this it seems to be doing quite well. IRAQI PM ALLAWI TO LOSE POSITION? After all that he has done to bring Iraq to democracy, ironically, one of the first casualties of democracy is like to be the interim Prime Minister, Mr. Allawi.  It seems likely that an MP nominated by Grand Ayatollah Sistani will be Prime Minister, as Allawi's attempts to forge a coalition have fallen way behind that of Ayatollah sistani and his associates. The press says on the one hand, his ouster will be a big blow to the Americans. On the other hand, it will give Iraq a Prime Minister who does not carry the stigma of having been chosen by Iraqis.

0330 GMT December 11, 2004
 

The below mess is what FrontPage does so well. Your editor asked simply for a box around the whole update for yesterday. Not only did he get the peculiar lines, he cannot erase them no matter what he tries. Yes, he could hand code the corrections. That would take him 20-30 minutes because he is no HTML expert.

Meanwhile, consider this. What You See Is Not What You Get. You Get what Bill Gates sees, and the gentleman needs to get some serious therapy and medicine immediately, because he actually thinks he has a brain. And "Where Do You Want To Go Today?" Anywhere but the same universe Bill Gates inhabits. Maybe its too late: Maybe he's already messed up the alternative universes. You like conspiracy theories, theorize this: Gates is the agent of a jealous superior being who does not want humans to grow up to compete with him/her/it. Gates is empowering no one, he is enslaving us all. Your editor's spot in the Downstairs Place (where its very hot) is reserved. But for sure so is Mr. Gates'. And when your editor meets Mr. Gates Downstairs, your editor is not going to be throwing cream pies.

1200 GMT December 10, 2004.

• UNIFIED IRAQ PARTY FOR ELECTIONS(Thanks Mike Thompson) NPR reports a major development in Iraq's new political life. A new unified party has been approved by Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the defacto religious leader of Iraq. The party includes elements from all over Iraq, not just Shias. Orbat.com comment If this party works out, it will win the election set for January 30, 2005, and will prove to be a unifying factor in the highly divisive mosaic of Iraqi politics.

0300 GMT December 9, 2004

0330 GMT December 8, 2004

·          CIA PESSIMISTIC ON IRAQ The CIA station chief in Iraq, who cannot be identified because he is under cover, sends a “candid” report back to Washington saying until Iraqi security forces improve, the security situation will continue to deteriorate. While ambassador Negroponte dissented on one point concerning Iraq security forces, the US Army commander had no comments, which means he agreed with the report.

·          UN CONFIRMS RWANDA ATTACK ON DRC The United Nations confirms that it is “almost certain” Rwanda forces have entered Eastern DRC to fight Rwanda rebels, despite Rwanda’s denials.

·          DAFRUR Only about a third of the 3,000 African Union troops sanctioned for Dafur have arrived; even the full contingent will find it near impossible to protect refugees and civilians under attack because of the size of the region.

·          SOMALIA BBC says two of the big Somali warlords have joined the government, which is being formed in Nairobi, as the situation in Mogadishu is too dangerous for the new government. One of the warlords is the sun of Mr. Mohammed Aideed, the other is his chief rival. While this improves the chances of a new national government actually taking power, it appears much further work is needed before the new government can take power. Meanwhile, a relief agency says that the death rate among children has reached 5 per 100,000 in Somalia. Not being demographers, we wonder if this is excessive given that Somalia is a very poor country to begin with.

·          PLAN & TYPE 094 A reader says: “The issue is not if the US can track the new PLAN SSBN or if it can stop incoming missiles. Rather, can the US afford the chance of losing even one major city over Taiwan however low the theoretical probability of missiles getting through”. An excellent point. We’d answer: “Can PRC afford to take the chance that the US will bomb the country back to the stone age if PRC launches missiles, whether or not they get through?

·          We feel that if the US does not make clear Taiwan will be defended at all costs, the next step is going to be PRC embarking on getting the US out of the West Pacific. Substitute Tokyo 1940 for Beijing 2014, and we can see the dimensions of the problem. The issue, then, is not Taiwan, but US hegemony over the world. This is not something the US is going to give up easily: an integral thrust of US foreign policy for over 110 years has been that no power should arise to challenge US control of the Pacific.

0230 GMT December 7, 2004

• PALESTINE ELECTION POLLS Polls on the eve of the Palestine election to choose a successor to to Mr. Arafat show the current Prime Minister and official candidate, Mr. Abbas, and the challenger, Mr. Marwan Barghouti, running neck to neck.
• A small problem with Mr. Bagouti is that he is a guest of the Israeli government, serving 5 life-terms for terrorist killings. We are not quite sure what the protocol is if your prime minister is locked up in enemy territory, but we're fairly certain he will not be attending his own inauguration if he wins. So, we remain unclear what purpose the Palestine people will achieve by electing him, except to tell the world that yes, they really have a terminal death wish.
• The problem with Mr. Abbas is that the west and western allied Arab states want him as Prime Minister, but a number of Palestine factions have vowed to kill him. So, we remain unclear what purpose the Palestine people will achieve by killing him, except to tell the world that yes, they really have a terminal death wish.
• AL-QAIDA ATTACKS US CONSULATE IN JEDDAH Another day, another idiocy committed by Al-Qaida. These smarty-pants attacked the US Consulate in Jeddah, managing to kill Zero Americans. Instead they killed several non-American staffers. In turn 3 were killed and two wounded and captured. an excellent exchange ratio, if we may say so, for the Americans.
• IRAQ There is no doubt the Americans are pressing the insurgents so hard that the latter are in serious trouble, not least from locals who want the insurgents to go away. You wont get that from the mainstream media, but it is reality. There is also no doubt, however, that the United States strategy is in serious trouble because the US lacks sufficient troops in Iraq. Pulling troops out from one area to subdue another and then rushing them off to a third is not a Good Idea. Just about everyone is calling for an increase in the size of the US Army/Marines, but the Rumster is standing fast. Well, no one can call him inconsistent, but he might care to consider what a fellow a fellow American said in a past century about hobgoblins, minds, foolishness, and inconsistency. Rummy is determined to fight to the last American volunteer before he admits he's wrong.
• Our readers might be interested to know just how much extra troops would cost. That's $120,000/soldier/year. Adding 120,000 would cost $15 billion. US defense spending is approaching $400 billion, so that would be 4%. Every one of America's 13 ground divisions are overseas, rotating, or preparing to go back to a battle zone. The equivalent of two National Guard divisions are also in the same situation.
• Unsolicited advice to Mr. Rumsfeld. Instead of vigorously exercising with dumbbells while in office, please label one of the 15-kilo dumbbells "Rummy", and start a new exercise routine. Hold Rummy with both hands, extend arms straight, align Rummy vertical to the ground. One the count of One, smack Rummy with full force into own (Rummy) forehead, at rate of once every 2 two seconds, while chanting: "Rummy is smarter than Rummy". After 100 reps, throw the now heavily deformed Rummy into the trash, and pick up a 20-kilo dumbbell, name it Rummy, and continue as before.
• CORRECTION We incorrectly gave the JL-2, PLAN's new SLBM, a 6000-km range. Its apparently 8,000-km, but since its never really flown, right now its wise to assume the range as 0-km. Readers remind us to mention: How quiet is SSBN Type 094? If it isn't as quiet as a silenced diesel, it doesn't have a hope except to stand-to at its pier with engines off, and fire away. Unless something has changed in the last few years, a nuclear boat cannot be as quiet as a silenced diesel.
• By the way, some people might be under the impression that the Americans are going to thrash around the West Pacific looking for Type 094s. Nope. They are going to lay sensors along the PRC coast and the China Seas, and they're going to keep SSNs on permanent watch just outside the naval bases, to pick up Type 094 the minute the screws start turning. And at that, we're talking acoustic detection. There's all sorts of new stuff around that the Americans will now rush to deploy. No doubt, a cleverly handled Type 094 will get off a couple of SLBMs before being blasted by US weapons. So first the SLBMs are going to run into the ABM shield on US Navy cruisers off PRC, then they'll run the gamut of orbiting kill vehicles, the land based ABMs, the airborne anti-missile lasers, and then the tactical ABMs/ground-based lasers.
• Its been decades since your editor even looked at the state of ABM technology. He does recall writing that when the US appeared to give up Star Wars, all it did was to hide the program under different budget heads, and pumped more money into R and D. There is going to be no crash program here. The Americans have been quietly spending billions every year. Meanwhile, the ABM critics will keep blasting the kill rate of the ground-based interceptors, as if the US will deploy 1-2 interceptors per enemy missile. The US is laying down the infrastructure to enable rapid scaling up of ground defenses. It already has planning underway for installation of 40 silos in Alaska alone; there's another field coming up at Vandenberg AFB in California.
• Random thought: the airborne laser battle stations are designed to fire several hundred shots. We'd welcome anyone whop cares to tell us about the multi-layered ABM defenses the US is working on.

0300 GMT December 5, 2004

·          UKRAINE The opposition suffered a setback when Parliament refuse to pass election amendments the opposition has demanded. The feeling is these matters are best debated after the election, and reasonably, one must agree the nay sayers have a point.

·          PLAN The US has “discovered” a new PLAN SSBN that is capable of firing 6000 km missiles. The missile submarine was expected, but not so soon. It remains unclear if the missiles the boat is supposed to carry are operational.

·          Meanwhile, PLA has started replacing its 20 ICBMs with newer models and analysts say it plans to have 60 by 2010.

·          In our opinion, PRC has just done the US Navy and the ABM program a big favor. This is the best news for at least 15 years. Newer and more numerous US attack submarines are assured, and the ABM lot are now assured of even more money. Good job, PRC, the US defense industry also salutes you.

·          PAKISTAN F-16s Pakistan’s President is in Washington. Among topics discussed is the purchase of 25 F-16s, to bring Pakistan’s air force back to three squadrons. Of the 40 originally delivered to Pakistan, perhaps 25-26 are still flying.

·          The Indians, as usual, are going hysterical. Does Pakistan need F-16s to fight terror, the Indians ask? Obviously not, so obviously Pakistan intends to use against us.

INDIA’S REACTION

·          Twenty-four years ago, your editor waged a one-man crusade back in India, telling the government and the media: if you start frothing at the mouth because Pakistan is getting 40 new fighters, you may as well don tutus and start ballet dancing. All you show is your gross insecurity. You are telling the world we are a great power, but we don’t think we can handle Pakistan even with a 3-1 superiority in aircraft.

·          This time around, your editor intends to keep his comments to Government of India very brief. So, we are told India is buying another 40 Mirage 2000s and aims at a total of 200 Su-30s. Are you going to use these aircraft to fight insurgents in Kashmir? Are you going to fight China? Obviously not. So your intent is mala fide, because you’re going to use them against Pakistan.

·          If the US approves the purchase, Pakistan will have 50 modern fighters. India has in service or on order 250 modern fighters. Moreover, the Su-30 is different class of aircraft altogether. You were claiming in the recent exercises between USAF F-15s and IAF Su-30s that you whomped the F-15s. The F-15 is a far more capable aircraft than the F-16. So, are you saying that Pakistani pilots are so good that at 5:1 odds in your favor, with much more advanced aircraft, you cant handle the PAF between morning tea and 11 AM snacks? If you cant, why are we wasting all this money?

·          The US also offered you the F-16, and basically in any quantity you want. But you rejected the F-16 – not good enough for us. So how come this plane in limited numbers is such a threat? Are PAF pilots supermen that at a 1:5 disadvantage in numbers, and with inferior aircraft, Pakistan is a threat to us?

·          Okay Government of India folks. Watch your mail, in two weeks you should be receiving a present of bangles from Orbat.com’s editor. That gives you two weeks to learn where bangles are worn, but the editor doubts you’’ figure it out.

·          [Explanation to non-Indian readers. Indian women give bangles to their men when the later act like cowards. It’s a sign of total contempt. But you are not a woman, our readers will astutely reply. True, but these days aren’t we supposed to have gender equity? If Indian women can present bangles, why can’t your editor send some over to his government? The ones he wants to send are plastic bangles – made in China. Double insult, Government of India – have to spell it out, doubt you’ll figure it out yourself.]

YOUR EDITOR FROTHS AT THE MOUTH

·          ANOTHER KLASSE KLOWNE AWARD Gosh, it never rains but it pours. We gave a Klasse Klowne award just last week, and here we have to give one again.

·          Our latest award goes to the UN special representative for Iraq. Lest readers get the mistaken idea this gentleman is an idiot, we hasten to add he is nothing short of brilliant, as an administrator, a scholar, and a diplomat. But you see, having all these qualities seems to be no guarantee that a person has balance or common sense.

·          This gentleman says, as starters, that elections cannot be held in Iraq till security is assured. Well, old boy, sorry to break the bad news to you, but 80% of Iraq is at peace. You really should get out more and stop relying on the American media. Now, the20% that is not at peace is because naughty people among the 20%, are creating a problem.

·          Now look at the implication of your statement. It seems to me you are very clearly telling the US/Iraq: go smack some sense into these troublemakers. So presumably you supported Najaf and Fallujah, and that there is no peace in the Sunni areas means you support even harsher measures? Okay. Mr. Bush, you just got the authorization from the UN you wanted. No elections without peace, so darn it, go and make the place peaceful!

·          But maybe the esteemed representative is not implying that, if you take another one of his utterances. The US invasion of Iraq has solved nothing, he says, it has made things worse. Oh, okay, you’re saying that under Saddam there was peace. The peace of the grave, but still, peace. So you support murderous tyrants who can bring peace to their countries? Great news for all murderous tyrants! Beijing will welcome you with garlands and flowers if you care to visit, because the Communist Party wants peace in China. Send this man to the Sudan, for gosh’s sake, he’ll solve the problem there right quick: kill all the Dafuris, and you have peace. Why stop there? Sudan has some 20 or even more tribal groups who want to overthrow the government. Kill them too while you’re at it.

·          But then why do you hector the Israelis when they try and bring peace to Palestine?

·          Now, if Bush aint doing it right, why don’t you do the job? Mr. Bush would gladly turn over the whole thing to you in a jiffy. Eh? You say Bush created the mess let him clean it up himself? Well, that’s what he’s doing, and elections are integral to bringing peace to Iraq. Bit of a paradox, what? Oh, yes, lets not forget you refuse to increase the UN presence in Iraq because you worry for their safety.

·          Lets also not forget that people who say they do not want any democratic elections in the first place are causing the trouble in the Sunni areas. So by insisting elections must be postponed, it seems you are really on the side of the terrorists.

·          Another question. As a young man, did you not revolt against the white man because he was always telling you that he knew what was good for you, and you, as an Arab or an African were too stupid to understand democracy? So, boss, what now gives you the right to tell the people of Iraq what’s good for them?

·          Another question. Sixty percent of Iraqis – the Shias – say they want elections. The Kurds say they don’t care one way or the other, and what they are not saying is regardless of who wins, that man is not to enter Kurd Land. Now, of the 20% who are Sunnis, lets blandly assume that none want elections. That’s not  true, of course, but lets assume. So 60% of the country say it wants elections. So, bearer of the Brown Man’s Burden, isn’t elections the right thing to do?

·           Tell you what, Sir. Zap over to Najaf, and tell the Grand Ayatollah he can’t have elections because all of Iraq is not at peace. Do you have the courage to do that? If not, keep quiet, because Mr. Bush is certainly not going to tell the Iraqi people – Shia, Sunni, or Kurd, that they cant have elections on schedule.

·          As a teacher, I can tell you that if Jane is tearing up my classroom, I do not hold up my teaching for the minutes, hours, or days it takes to get Jane to be peaceful. I send her out to the office with a request to the office to call her parents immediately.

·          Normally, after we give you the Klasse Klowne award, we’d ask you to face the class while they make fun of you. But this time, we’re going to give you the award, and send you to the office. Please call your parents to get you and to take you home. Hopefully after they smack you a few times, you’ll see sense.

·           

0500 GMT December 4, 2004

·          UKRAINE The Supreme Court ruled the election of the official candidate invalid, and ordered new elections on December 26. There will be 2 rounds as before; the opposition candidate is expected to win a runoff. The opposition and official candidates met; opposition promises to lift blockade of government buildings.

·          DAFUR Rebels have apparently launched their threatened offensive. Thirty police are reported killed, but we are not sure as to the authenticity of the sources. Sudan government declares state of emergency. Relief agency says Sudan military jet attacked a population center.

·          US WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ? Again being said Pentagon has suggested withdrawal of US forces by end 2005 and that the government has accepted. Said that the news is being kept under cover so as not to affect morale of new Iraq security forces. Pentagon said to believe the US presence is now counterproductive.

·          UK IRAQ REINFORCEMENTS ON STANDBY? AFP quotes Jane’s as saying British Army units are on standby for deployment if needed to boost election security in Iraq. Troops will be flown in directly for the mission. We estimate 2 battalions are on standby.

·          MORE ON ANNAN JR Washington Post mentions in a story that the Swiss company Annan Junior worked for has handed over documents to the US Congress. We’re glad our unsolicited advice along the same lines was heeded. (Only kidding, the company handed the documents over before we suggested it.) In documents is an explicit memo from Annan Junior saying he joined his father while the later was on an 8 day visit to to Africa, and that he, Junior, made many high-level contacts. We don’t know if this is enough to cause serious trouble for Mr. Annan, but it does cast doubt on  his claim that he did not discuss his son’s business with him.

·          EU LOSES IT AGAIN The EU has declared its support for Mr. Annan. Obviously it again a case of pique directed at the Bush Administration, but if indeed something is pinned on Mr. Annan, EU is going to look a bit silly. Not that that bothers the EU. Again, as is being repeatedly pointed out out to Orbat.com, the issue is not if Mr. Annan took advantage of his position. Issue is a massive fraud was being conducted by his official(s), on his watch, and instead of cooperating to get the matter cleared, Mr. Annan is obstructing inquiries.

·          INDIA-PAKISTAN RAIL LINK TO BE REBUILT BBC says that Indiana nd Pakistan have agreed to restore the rail link between the two countries in the Rajasthan-Sindh desert region. The link was broken during the 1965 Kashmir War and never reactivated. An Amrister-Lahore link has been again open for many years now.

0400 GMT December 3, 2004

• THE UNITED NATIONS: A REMAKE FOR THE 21^st CENTURY? The United Nations has come up with an idea to rein in US unilateralism. The organization has rightly concluded that its 60-year refusal to intervene against governments oppressing their own people is now obsolete. There are situations, says the UN, where the world must act even if it is against a recognized sovereign regime. The UN must assume the legal powers needed to intervene in Rwanda, Sudan, Haiti type situations.
• All good thoughts, and better late than never, etc etc. Apparently, however, in return for agreeing to intervene faster and more effectively, the UN wants the US to give up its unilateral approach to intervention.
• After a quick calculation on a TI-83 scientific calculator, your editor has worked out that the odds of his becoming Miss Universe are actually better by a factor of 1000 than the odds of the US accepting any restrictions on its power.
• To the extent the UN proposes to enhance its relevance in the post Cold War age, we fully support the international organization.
• The US is not going to agree for three reasons.
• First, which country willing gives up the power it has? The United States idealistically agreed to submit to a world organization when it pushed the idea of the United Nations. We can forget the nonsense about the US thought this up as a cynical ploy to control the world. In 1945, the US already controlled the world: its GNP, for example, was 50% of the world totals. Its fleets were more powerful by at least of factor of 10 than all the fleets of the world combined – and that includes US allies. US airpower was more than the rest of the world combined. And if you counted combat power as opposed to numbers, the US ground capability was by far the greatest in the world. Had it been necessary, the US could have fielded 200 divisions, each between 3-5 times as powerful as its Soviet counterpart, so that the US could have fielded more ground power than the rest of the world combined. So what did the US get for its well-intentioned sacrifice? Not one, not two, but 3 countries, each of whom could by itself block the US at the UN.  Canada’s combat power exceeded that of France in 1945. China was in chaos. Russia had been bled almost to death by its titanic efforts against Germany, and by its own stupidity – who is the one who helped build up Germany in the first place. The US is not going to make the same mistake again as long as it has the strength to do as it wants.
• Second, the US has created a world empire; right now it is moving to consolidate its hold in one of the last two bastions it does not control. That is the Islamic world; China is the other bastion. Not really the time to talk about getting the US to accept constraints.
• Last, and in our opinion this is the core of the matter. One swallow does not a summer make etc etc, and one unilateral intervention does not mean the US has given up on multilateralism. Aside from Iraq, the US is busy involved in multi-lateralism in every other crisis in the world.
• Iraq would not have been addressed to the US satisfaction even had the UN had the powers it now proposes for itself. The US went into Iraq for – hang to your hats ladies and gentlemen – for its own interests and as part of its global strategy. No one else saw Iraq as a problem needing to be dealt with.
• To conclude: if the UN wants more intervention power to make the world a better placed, it has our vote and our $1 contribution. If the UN wants to tame the US, in the immortal words of New Yorkers, “fuggedboutit”
• THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO A MORE POWERFUL UN [Thanks to Mike Thompson]. The thing about crises is they come out of nowhere. Six months ago, if someone had told us the UN Secretary General was going to be up the creek without the paddle, we’d have laughed. Right now, however, a situation has developed where nothing can be achieved at the UN unless Mr. Kofi Annan resigns or retires in 2006.
• Readers may recall a couple of weeks ago we said that Mr. Annan’s refusal to cooperate with the US Congress on the food-for-oil scandal was Not A Good Idea. We said Congressional investigatory committees recognize no temporal authority greater than theirs. We said not to be misled by the calm manner in which the Congress took the UN refusal to cooperate.
• Well, even we are impressed by our own prescience.  On November 30^th the Wall Street Journal carried an op-ed by a Senator involved in the investigation. With the charmingly subtlety Americans are famous for, the article is headed: “Kofi Annan Must Go”.
• We do not need to explain to our American readers the significance of the article. Indeed, we suspect most of our non-American readers old enough to follow the Clinton impeachment also do not need to be told what’s coming. Right now, Congress is going to be looking for one thing in particular. Mr. Annan has made the mistake of categorically denying  he ever discussed his son’s business dealings with him. The Congressional investigators are going to be looking for circumstantial and actual proof that Mr. Annan lied.
• Now, you will say, Congress has no power to compel the UN to give up its internal documents. Correct. That is why US investigative agencies working on Congress’ orders are going to go after all the small players and – um – “persuade” them to cooperate. Any American personnel who work in the UN and do not enjoy diplomatic enmity can also be called. The US media will unleash itself on the matter.
• And – Danger ahead, Danger behind, Mr. Annan Kofi Casey Jones. Do you by chance recall that little run in you’ve been having with the UN employee union? The members feel you did wrong by them. It takes one union member to call the Feds and say “I want to talk”. That person need not even be an American.
• From childhood, your editor’s father would say, “Son, you have to respect the little people who work for you. It’s morally the right thing to do. More than that, the bigger an organization, the more real power the little people have.” We wonder if Mr. Annan’s dad taught him the same lesson?
• There are many, many women who are angered beyond measure that Mr. Annan has so glibly dismissed their allegation of sexual harassment by his core staff. These will be women who have been harassed and those who have seen the humiliation of their sisters. These women will be the secretaries and the junior administrators who actually handle the papers and documents.
• Our advice: don’t bother battening down the hatches, Mr. Annan, sir. Don’t bother apologizing to the employees union or to the United States government about all the slights you have inflicted on it. The latest being a classic non-sequitor: the US intervention in Iraq has made the lives of Iraqi babies more insecure (readers, please correct us if Mr. Annan said something else). The logic of not overthrowing an inhumanly cruel dictator because babies might suffer is like, beyond our simple brains.
• That piece of illogic aside, don’t quote us, but didn’t we read somewhere the other day that before Saddam got the heave ho, government spending on health had come down to $16-million/year because Saddam and Company – including UN officials – were pocketing so much of the money? The new health minister has a billion dollar budget for the fiscal year, or 60 times as much. No one needs a TI-83 to figure out what that means.
• DPRK: A CASE FOR GLOBAL INTERVENTION? Read this article and let us have your opinions. It frighteningly germane to the UN proposals for gre

0400 GMT December 2, 2004

·          UKRAINE The government has agreed to let the Supreme Court decide if a new election is to take place. That does not mean the problem is resolved: the current president says that the entire election, including the run-off vote to select the two strongest candidates, must be held again. The problem is (1) no one disputes the run-off election; (2) revisiting the process from start to finish could take several more months; and (3) the electoral rules are so obscure that the current President may find a way of disqualifying the vote winner and the challenger- which fits with the vote winner’s plan. He has said he will not run if the opposition candidate also withdraws.

·          Its not clear to us that the current President has much leverage to influence a new election. With the US, Canada, EU all pressing for a quick new vote, with the protesters in the street and the economy is jeopardy if the instability continues, the current President may have run out of options.

·          Western hypocrisYBefore your editor asks the western governments a question, let him be categorical that he was, and is, a staunch anti-communist. He believes the defeat of communism will feature as one of America’s greatest achievements since 1776.  Now, the EU chief is reported as saying that the territorial integrity of Ukraine must be maintained. So where was he when the west was exulting over the break-up of the Soviet Union? What’s so special about Ukraine? And remember the little unpleasantness where the west assiduously worked to destroy the Yugoslav federation?  If the people of Ukraine’s eastern provinces feel better by joining Russia, why is it not okay for them to hold a referendum? After all, there is hardly a western government who wouldn’t welcome a plebiscite on Kashmir. [The Indian government’s position on Kashmir is that according to the way in which the UK set the terms for partition, for the princely states, the ruler was the only one who could decide, and Kashmir’s ruler decided for India.]

·          IRAQ VOTE The US will temporarily boost troop strength in Iraq for the scheduled January 30, 2005 election. The following units are being extended: USMC 31^st MEU, US Army 2^nd Brigade, 25^th Division, and 2^nd Brigade, 1^st Cavalry Division. In addition, two battalions of the US 82^nd Airborne Division will be sent.

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