analysis.orbat.com
Updated six days of the week [Because of the Iraq War we've been updating on Sundays, normally our off day. This Sunday we are not updating.]
Incorporating America Goes to War
Incorporating India and Pakistan Face Off
May 28, 2003
Archives
September 16, 2001 to January 31, 2002
February 1, 2002 to March 28, 2002 -
March 29, 2002 to May 31, 2002 -
June 1 to July 31, 2002 -
August 1 to December 31, 2002 -
January 1 to March 18, 2003 -
March 18 to April 30, 2003
Important Resource Articles
Iraq 2003: A Collection of Material Related to Gulf II
Analysis of US National Guard Combat Units Mobilized [Shawn Dudley]
Index of Articles on India-Pakistan Military Balance
The India-Pakistan Confrontationof 2002: Two Different Accounts of Events
Readers wanting material on Afghanistan: should you need more material than that we have archived for your immediate reference, please let the editor know; if we can provide the material it will cost you our usual research rates, which are quite modest.
Other sources on Iraq
Globalsecurity.org has a very detailed public page on the US buildup [from Periscope] and much other useful material. The difficulty with this page is that the level of detail can be confusing to people who are not specialized in the US military.
For a good summary of the relative balance of forces in the Iraq theatre, please visit Strategypage.com. The page’s editorial team is headed by the famous war gamer, Mr. James Dunnigan. We are certain this page will put up additional material as the situation develops.[Page suggested by Mr. Gordon A. MacKinlay.]
Written By:
Kirill Gertman, Editor
Johann Price, Editor
Ravi Rikhye, Editor
Regular Contributions By:
Gordon A. MacKinlay
Jim Milne
Richard Morati
We have archived Johann Price's material on Afghanistan: Naval Orbat for Operation Enduring Freedom; Military Casualties in Operation Enduring Freedom; Commands and HQs for Operation Enduring Freedom, and International Security Assistance Force. This material is being archived for reference.
The Forum is active again. Please take advantage of it to share your thoughts.
Additional news is available on the front page of www.orbat.com and in the Gulf War 2 archive.
Stories from Military.com
It’s Liberation Time for Iraq’s Looters and Criminal Gangs May 27
Laying Bare the Primordial Roots of the Middle East Crisis May 27
Asefi lashes out at US accusations against Iran May 27
Opinion: Tejh Singh of Meerut May 26
Updates from Brookings Institute May 24
Stories from Military.com
These stories are all from the May 27th edition and links will be active for about a week.
Bush Case On Defense Plan Cites N. Korea Washington Times ( MAY. 27) President Bush specifically names North Korea as a key threat in an unpublished order on missile defense and says such a system is needed as a hedge against military surprises and intelligence failures. Mr. Bush also says in the presidential order, known as National Security Presidential Directive-23, that his administration will develop a strategic "triad" of long-range conventional and nuclear weapons, missile defenses, and an industrial and research infrastructure. "Some states, such as North Korea, are aggressively pursuing the development of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles as a means of coercing the United States and our allies," the directive says.
At The DMZ, Troops Fight A 'Ghost War' Washington Times (OBSERVATION POST OUELLETTE, South Korea MAY. 27) The American soldiers turn their heads slowly, examining ridges, trees and even tiny twigs that explode in detail amid green hues in the night-vision scopes suspended from the rims of their Kevlar helmets. The M-16 rifles in their camouflaged hands follow in a sweep across a mist-covered North Korean landscape that begins only yards away with shadows cast by the full moon. For the next 10 days, the squad of a dozen men will sleep in barracks covered by camouflage nets on the protected south side of Ouellette's wind-swept ridge. They might encounter North Korean soldiers while on patrol. From time to time, the enemy slips south across a border marked only by rusted yellow signs spaced several hundred yards apart. Should that happen, the Americans will make their presence known and the North Koreans will probably flee to their side of the Military Demarcation Line, the official North-South border that bisects a 2.5-mile-wide buffer zone established nearly 50 years ago by a truce that ended fighting in the Korean War.
U.S. Troops' Role In Iraq Likened To Occupation Of Postwar Japan Washington Times ( MAY. 27) American ground forces increasingly are shedding combat roles and taking on the job of running Iraq in an occupation of a kind not seen since the United States democratized Japan and Germany. In recent weeks, commanders have redirected a larger share of the U.S. troops in Iraq to the chores that accompany controlling and operating any large city such as Baghdad: patrolling the streets, staffing prisons, guarding valuable real estate, imposing gun control, restoring electricity and water distribution, and supervising trash collection. "For the U.S. military to be occupying a country, trying to take charge of basic services, trying to keep order, really trying to make the country work from scratch, this is something we haven't seen since the 1940s," said Thomas Carothers, a foreign-policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former legal adviser to the State Department.
Iraqi Top Cop Fired For Ba'ath Ties Washington Times (BAGHDAD MAY. 27) The top U.S. official in Iraq has fired a Baghdad police chief because of his Ba'ath Party membership, despite the help he provided American forces in rebuilding the capital's ravaged police force. West Baghdad Police Chief Abdul Razak al-Abbassi was dismissed Sunday, said Lt. Col. Richard Vanderlinden, commander of the U.S. Army's 709th Military Police Battalion. Mr. al-Abbassi was found to have had full membership in Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party, disqualifying him from any of the three top positions in an Iraqi government bureau, Col. Vanderlinden said.
Playing Offense U.S. News and World Report ( MAY. 27) And the brass knuckles came on. America's frontline agents in the war on terror have hacked into foreign banks, used secret prisons overseas, and spent over $20 million bankrolling friendly Muslim intelligence services. They have assassinated al Qaeda leaders, spirited prisoners to nations with brutal human-rights records, and amassed files equal to a thousand encyclopedias. But the war is far from over. Last week, Osama bin Laden's top deputy exhorted the faithful to strike at western embassies and businesses.
Carrier Reagan Readying For Its Acceptance Trials Virginian-Pilot ( MAY. 27) The aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan will be the ninth ship J.W. Smith has assembled in 38 years at the Northup Grumman Newport News shipyard. Still, when the Reagan leaves the shipyard today for its two day acceptance trials, Smith will be watching. "To see it go down the river, it's a good feeling," the pipes production foreman said. "It makes you proud." To prepare for its departure, Navy inspectors have been combing through all the systems to make sure the ship is fit for duty. After it leaves the shipyard, it is going to the Norfolk Naval Station and will return to the shipyard in October for final alterations.
Saddam Faithful Refuse To Surrender Washington Times (BAGHDAD MAY. 27) The specter of Saddam Hussein resurfaced in Iraq yesterday, with U.S. forces suffering deadly attacks, pro-Saddam graffiti staining the capital and hooded Arab guerrillas vowing to avenge their fallen leader. With the upsurge in anticoalition acts, residents of the Iraqi capital expressed fear that Saddam Hussein and his followers remain a threat. Four U.S. soldiers died and six were injured in an ambush, a land-mine incident and accidents, a reminder that resistance to U.S. control flares up periodically and may be escalating.
Al Qaeda's Desert Inn U.S. News and World Report ( MAY. 27) Al Jafr Prison doesn't appear on maps of Jordan. There are no photographs of the place available from the world's news services. The remote prison appears out of the southern desert as if some medieval apparition, with two towers anchoring a circular stone wall. Barbed wire is everywhere. The notorious prison was closed in the 1970s, but it reopened in the 1990s as a maximum security jail. "This is a prison," a Jordanian intelligence officer explains bluntly, "for terrorist detainees." It's also the place where the CIA has used a secret interrogation center since 9/11, U.S. News has learned. As many as 100 al Qaeda prisoners have passed through al Jafr, according to U.S. and Jordanian intelligence sources.
It’s Liberation Time for Iraq’s Looters and Criminal Gangs
Peter Hermann, The Baltimore Sun, for full story click Arabnews.com
BAGHDAD, Iraq, 27 May 2003 — A chemistry professor is shot to death by the gates of his university. A well-known singer of songs praising Saddam Hussein is gunned down outside his home. The mother of a young woman involved in a bitter divorce is killed in her own driveway.
Killers are roaming the streets of this city and there is no one pursing them, in what has become open season for settling old scores. For anyone bitter at his treatment by a former government official, a boss, even a family member — this has become the best of all times for carrying out dreams of revenge.
Hospital officials report that at least 50 Baath Party members have been killed in the capital this month along with scores of other people who were victims of domestic disputes or rivalries between clans.
Laying Bare the Primordial Roots of the Middle East Crisis
Neil Berry, for full story click Arabnews.com
LONDON, 26 May 2003 — Much has been made of British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s commitment to the creation of a Palestinian state. Much has been made too of the promise he allegedly wrung from George Bush: That — in return for British support in the war against Iraq — the United States would do its utmost to make the Palestinian state a reality.
No doubt the British prime minister is genuinely concerned to push for a resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Yet one may wonder just how even-handed Blair’s approach to that conflict really is. No more than Bush himself has Blair taken conspicuous steps to consult Arab opinion. When he came to power in 1997, he appointed as his adviser on the Middle East the wealthy businessman Lord Levy — a British Jew about whose intimate ties with Israel there has never been any secret. What has stopped him from recruiting a counterbalancing Arab adviser on the region’s affairs?
Asefi lashes out at US accusations against Iran
Below is the complete story from Iranian Republic News Agency
Tehran, May 26, IRNA -- Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi here on Monday blasted the United States for its recent allegations against the Islamic Republic, calling them a "direct interference" in the domestic affairs of Iran.
Speaking at a press conference, Asefi said the charges and accusations have been prompted by US interventionist policies which contradict international law and legal precedents as well as the Algeria Agreement, which binds the US to avoid interfering in Iran's internal affairs.
The official further said that neither Tehran nor the international community will succumb to US pressure. He further expressed hope US officials and politicians will stop interfering in the domestic affairs of sovereign states.
A.H. Amin
[This piece also appeared in the Pakistani newspaper Nation]
In 1807 one Khushaal Singh , son of a poor Brahman shopkeeper of Gaur Class came from Sardhana Pargana of district Meerut, then a part of Honourable English East India Company's territory to Lahore. Khushaal enrolled as a soldier in Ranjit Singh's army and ultimately rose to the rank of a Jemadar. The Hindustani Brahman became close to Ranjit Singh and also brought his nephew Tejh Ram from Meerut to Lahore in 1812. They both became Sikhs, soon, the uncle in 1812 and the nephew in 1816. By 1830s Tejh Singh was one of the senior Sikh Chiefs in the inner circle of Ranjit Singh having served in many key posts at Peshawar, Kashmir etc.
Like many leaders of past and present Ranjit Singh feared a military coup and this made him have Hindustani Hindus like Tejh Singh in his army's highest ranks. It is an interesting fact of history that one of the greatest leaders of Punjab did not favour having a Punjabi chief in his highest army ranks for fear of a military coup.
No surprise since it is another fact of history that all four army chiefs of Pakistan Army hailing from Punjab were selected by Sindhi or Pathan heads or political heads of state i.e. Tikka, Zia and Karamat by two Sindhi prime ministers i.e. Z.A. Bhutto and Benazir, while Asif Nawaz was selected by a Pathan president.
Yet when war finally came in 1845-46 Tejh Singh betrayed the Khalsa at the battles of Feroz Shah and Moodke refusing to attack a far weaker British force which also housed the then Governor General of India . This if done would have been a fatal blow to the British. Mallesson the famous author of the book "Decisive Battles of India" has singled out Feroz Shah and Moodke as a decisive battle in which Tejhh Singh's treachery was more fatal than that of Mir Jafar at Plassey.
Tejh Singh was well rewarded for his services by the English East India Company and his family's name was on the top in the famous book Punjab Chiefs published in 1909.
The tradition of divide and rule, selecting key persons from political or ethnic minorities is ancient. The Mughals soon discarded their key Uzbek and Turk nobles soon after Humayun's demise in Akbar's reign and imported the Persian nobles with the hope that being from the Fiqh-I-Jafariya they would be a sectarian minority and thus a political guarantee against a coup by a Sunni Turani military commander. The folly was proved once the Persian Zulfiqar Khan allied with the Marathas against the Mughals and in the Battle of Karnal once the Persian Nawab of Oudh betrayed the Mughals leading to the sack of Delhi.
Liaquat Ali Khan selected a junior and military record-wise incompetent officer Ayub Khan simply because Liaqat was involved in a political battle and did not want a Punjabi army chief. Pakistan payed the price in 1958. Ayub selected Yahya with the premise that Yahya belonged to the Qizilbash minority and Pakistan paid the price in 1971. Bhutto selected Zia because he thought that Zia was meek and docile and Pakistan is paying the price till to date. Nawaz selected Musharraf with the premise that Musharraf being from a minority would be less dangerous than the Pathan Ali Quli and Pakistan paid the price in Kargil and Nawaz on 12th October. There is a Mianwali saying " Siana Kaaan , Gooo tay Digdaa" .
Divide and rule is a dangerous policy. Back in 1980s the military intelligence pundits acted as the midwife of ethnic parties in Sindh in the hope that it would counter the PPP. Thus a Pandora's Box was opened and the military intelligence Don Quixotes have so far failed to control the genie they unleashed in Sindh in 1985-86. These ethnic parties may even outlast Pakistan the way geopolitical events are moving.
The Afghan Mujahideen and their successors Taliban again represent an interesting lesson in the limitations of policy of divide and rule. Just to preserve a military regime facing a political challenge in 1980s and 1990s these groups specially the Taliban became an embarrassment for Pakistan and Pakistan paid the price of 10 Billion loss to economy in 2001.
Presently the policy of dividing and destroying two of this country's largest parties the PPP and the PML is again dangerous. Whatever is left to present the military rulers any credible defiance is being bull dozed just in the interest of one man rule. Thus the PML Q and the PPP Patriots.
How long would this policy of divide and rule go on. This is a phenomenal self-deception. How long would we be again and again betrayed by Zulfiqar Khans or Tejh Singhs whatever their ethnicity sect or religion.
The Looting of Iraq’s Nuclear Facilities: What Do We Do Now?
Susan E. Rice writes that it may be too late to recoup any lost radiological materials from Iraq’s nuclear facilities, but it is not too late to assess the damage and minimize its impact. The Bush administration should immediately recall the IAEA to help evaluate the extent of the losses and seek to track errant materials and documents; it should deploy sufficient troops with robust rules of engagement to secure sensitive facilities; and it should replicate in Iraq an element of the program that was aimed at limiting the proliferation of WMD from the former Soviet Union. Brookings
The End of Atlanticism
There has been a profound change in the structure of US–European relations, though the differentiation of power is only one, and not the most important, factor accounting for this change. One crucial consequence of this transformation is the effective end of Atlanticism—American and European foreign policies no longer centre around the transatlantic alliance to the same overriding extent as in the past. Other concerns—both global and local—and different means for addressing them have now come to the fore. As a result, it is no longer simply a question of adapting transatlantic institutions to new realities—to give NATO a new mission or purpose. The changing structure of relations between the United States and Europe means that a new basis for the relationship must be found, lest the continued drift ends in separation and, ultimately, divorce, argues Ivo H. Daalder. Brookings
Would the Saudis Go Nuclear?
Hawks and doves who disagree about virtually everything else agree that the United States would be better off without its Saudi "ally." Realists counter that the United States needs Saudi oil and Saudi military bases. But there's a less obvious argument for making sure the long-standing Washington-Riyadh partnership doesn't fracture: If it does, the Saudis might well go nuclear, writes Michael A. Levi. Brookings
Uncontainable: North Korea’s Loose Nukes
President Bush should know what his scientific advisers have certainly deduced: Short of a diplomatic solution or a provocative and risky military action, it will be impossible to stop Pyongyang from exporting plutonium. Against the advice of many, Bush quickly abandoned the diplomatic track, falling back on the promise of a technologically immature missile defense. Today, the administration seems again to be preemptively preparing the nation for a diplomatic failure by brandishing the dubious promise of a cure-all defense. And, once again, that defense is an illusion, writes Michael A. Levi. Brookings
Africa
Two Analyses on Israel-Palestine Relations May 22
Stories from Military.com May 21
US Forces May 20
Forwarded by reader Gordon A. McKinlay, these stories are from the BBC.
Fresh atrocities in DR Congo
Bunia is said to be traumatised by violence New evidence has emerged of the bloody violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, sparking concerns over the potential for genocide. The UN mission in DR Congo (Monuc) says it has found the bodies of more than 230 people killed during recent clashes between rival militias in the regional capital, Bunia.
Civilians fleeing into Uganda to escape violence have reported widespread atrocities by ethnic militias.
News of the latest violence came as a small party of French military observers arrived in the north-east town of Bunia to investigate the possible deployment of a multinational force.
British officials are considering contributing to the force, as United Nations officials in Bunia warn of the possibility of genocide if a large contingent of experienced peacekeepers is not brought in swiftly.
The BBC's Ishbel Matheson in Bunia says local people are traumatised by violence, with many leaving their homes to seek refuge at the UN compound.
The health clinic by the compound is crammed with people suffering the most appalling injuries, she says.
One woman who refused to give money to militiamen was slashed repeatedly with machetes, and saw her children killed in front of her, our correspondent said.
Another man had a bandage round his neck after his throat had been slashed. Many say they want an international force to put an end to their suffering.
The European Union said on Monday it was considering a UN request to send peacekeeping troops.
France has been asked to lead this force and provide a battalion with up to 1,000 troops. But it insists that other nations join the force and the deployment be for a limited period.
And militia leaders say they will treat any French troops who go to Bunia as enemies.
British officials say what is being talked about is a short-term operation to fill the gap until South African and Bangladeshi troops arrive in July or August to reinforce the existing UN contingent.
There are about 700 Uruguayan soldiers in Bunia, but they have neither the mandate nor the numbers to stop the fighting or prevent atrocities against civilians.
The UN troops have been pulled back into Bunia for their own protection after the killing of two soldiers some 70 km north of the town.
A truce was signed by the rival militias on Friday, and large scale fighting stopped on Sunday in Bunia.
The clashes erupted soon after the 9,000 strong Ugandan forces withdrew from Bunia about two weeks ago, as part of a wider peace deal.
Some 20,000 Congolese civilians have fled to Uganda since then, according to the UN refugee agency.
"We would all have been massacred on the way if it weren't for the large numbers of [withdrawing] Ugandan soldiers," one refugee told the BBC's Will Ross in western Uganda.
Hemas, traditionally cattle-raisers, and Lendus, predominantly farmers, have been in conflict for centuries for land and other resources in the area.
The rivalry has become more bloody because Ituri district around Bunia is rich with gold.
Neighbouring nations involved in the five-year DR Congo conflict - Uganda and Rwanda - armed both sides as proxy militias.
Some 50,000 people have died and some half a million people displaced from Ituri since 1999.
Uganda launches terror swoop
The Ugandan capital, Kampala, is home to thousands of foreigners About 200 foreigners in Uganda have been detained and screened as part of a campaign against terror suspects and illegal immigrants, Ugandan authorities say.
Police spokesman Assuman Mugenyi told the BBC that those picked up included nationals from India, Pakistan, Sudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone.
He said the move was designed to determine the status of foreigners, and help the Ugandan authorities find out if any was a terrorist threat.
"We found that most of them had no proper documents at all," Mr Mugenyi said, adding that many others had no valid working papers.
Most of those screened were subsequently released - but 72 foreigners remain in custody in Kampala, according to police.
Mr Mugenyi said they were being held as a precaution while possible links with Muslim militants were being investigated.
Uganda is among a number of East African countries where the British and US governments identified a terrorist threat last week.
Sattler had talks with Kenyan Security Minister Chris Murangaru The swoop came as the American commander in charge of counter-terrorism in the region, Major General John Sattler, arrived in Kenya on Tuesday.
He said the United States was working closely with East African governments, sharing intelligence and training regional counterterrorism forces.
General Sattler was speaking after talks with Kenyan National Security Minister Chris Murangaru.
Britain has suspended flights between Nairobi and London because of a specific threat to its planes.
Two Analyses on Israel-Palestine Relations
Stories from Military.com May 21
US Forces May 20
Six Killed in Afghan Infighting May 19
50 dead in Philippines operation against MILF May 19
A Day’s Work On Stability Operations in Iraq May 19
Two Analyses on Israel-Palestine Relations
A self-confident Hamas
For full story by Amira Hass, click Haartez
This time it will be difficult for Hamas to rebuff the regular charges of the Palestinian Authority leadership that Hamas operations are meant to directly attack the official Palestinian leadership. The attacks during the Oslo years, until 2000, said official Palestinian spokesmen, were sometimes timed to coincide with expectations of a redeployment of IDF forces in the West Bank or at the height of negotiations over various articles of the interim agreements. In the past two years, the attacks took place when there were various mediation efforts. The Park Hotel bombing on Passover eve in 2002 was timed to coincide with the Arab League summit in Beirut, called to discuss the Saudi Arabian peace initiative.
Abbas Asks Bush to Pressure Israel on Mideast Road Map
For full story click Arabnews.com
Agencies RAMALLAH, 22 May 2003 — Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, in a telephone call with George W. Bush, asked the US president to put pressure on Israel to accept the peace road map, a Palestinian official said yesterday.Abbas “asked the US president to work to secure Israel’s acceptance of the...
May 21, 2003
Stories from Military.com
US Forces May 20
Six Killed in Afghan Infighting May 19
50 dead in Philippines operation against MILF May 19
A Day’s Work On Stability Operations in Iraq May 19
Stories from Military.com
Ban Of Ba'athists A Win For Pentagon
Washington Times (BAGHDAD MAY. 20)
A proclamation banning some 30,000 members of
the outlawed Ba'ath Party from public-sector jobs is being interpreted
by U.S. officials as a victory for the Pentagon in its struggle with
the CIA and the State Department to determine policy in Iraq. The
officials say the proclamation by the country's new civilian
administrator, L. Paul Bremer, sent the most powerful signal yet of
the coalition's determination to weed out those who remain loyal to
Saddam Hussein's ousted regime. The CIA and State Department had
favored a far smaller-scale removal of Ba'athist bureaucrats, arguing
that the best way to restore stability was to maintain some continuity
in government.
Appeal Denied On Guantanamo Detentions
WASHINGTON MAY. 20)
The Supreme Court turned away an appeal Monday
over detention of hundreds of U.S. prisoners picked up in Afghanistan
after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. The court did not comment in
rejecting an appeal from clergy, lawyers and others who wanted to go
to court on behalf of the prisoners held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba,
without charges or access to lawyers. Lower federal courts had blocked
the legal challenge on grounds that the clergy group did not have
legal standing.
Iraqis Win Greater Authority To Govern
Washington Times BAGHDAD MAY. 20
Iraqi political groups won a partial victory
last night when the United States introduced an amended Security
Council resolution in New York that strengthens the role of an interim
Iraqi administration expected to take office within weeks. The
original resolution, which would lift economic sanctions on Iraq, also
contains language designed to legitimize the role of coalition forces
in Iraq as they share power with an Iraqi "interim authority" that
would govern for as long as two years. But the Iraqi political groups,
including the most fervent supporters of the American military
invasion, had complained that the term "authority" was too weak and
would limit the body's ability to deal with international
organizations such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries and the United Nations.
Freed Iraqis Enjoy A Free Press
Washington Times BAGHDAD MAY. 20
A vendor on one street in the capital shouts
out news he would have been arrested for trumpeting just weeks ago:
"Read all about Saddam's double." A woman skids her car to a stop and
asks for a copy of Assaah, a newspaper published in Iraq without
government supervision. Iraqis are enjoying press freedoms they
haven't seen in the eight decades since the nation's establishment by
British colonialists. During the last part of Saddam Hussein's 23-year
presidency, no foreign newspapers were allowed into Iraq. Satellite
dishes were banned, and cable television was prohibitively expensive.
The sole windows to the outside world were radio stations such as the
British Broadcasting Corp., Paris-based Radio Monte Carlo and the U.S.
government's Radio Sawa.
Pentagon: Lynch Allegations Ridiculous
CNN, WASHINGTON MAY. 20
Responding to a BBC report that called the
Pentagon accounts of the rescue "one of the most stunning pieces of
news management ever conceived," Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman
said, "I think that allegation is ridiculous, I don't know how else to
respond. The idea that we would put a number of forces in danger
unnecessarily to recover one of our POWs is just ridiculous."
US to Send More Troops to Philippines
Washington Times ( MAY. 20)
President Bush yesterday announced the United States would deploy more troops in the Philippines to help the country battle Muslim rebels, a move applauded by Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, a staunch supporter of the U.S.-led war on terrorism. Mr. Bush, standing side by side with Mrs. Arroyo in the White House East Room, also designated the Asian nation as a "major non-NATO ally," elevating the Philippines to the status of Australia, Israel and Egypt, and making it eligible for more U.S. arms and other defense cooperation. "The Philippines and the United States are strong allies in the war on terror," Mr. Bush said. "The murder of citizens from both our countries last week in Saudi Arabia reminds us that this war is far from over. The Philippine government is strongly committed to defeating terrorists operating in its own part of the world."
US Forces
Six Killed in Afghan Infighting May 19
50 dead in Philippines operation against MILF May 19
A Day’s Work On Stability Operations in Iraq May 19
Dispatch about 3/3rd ACR from Western Iraq by John Diedrich of the Gazette
Forwarded by reader SSimoneC Reporter's Journal: Entry 17
RUTBAH, Iraq - Andy and I have moved our tent over to 3rd Squadron of Fort Carson's 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment. We were told before coming here that 2nd Squadron was the regiment unit getting the most action in Iraq. Third was supposedly sleepy town.
We have evidence to the contrary.
Three hours after we arrived in 3rd Squadron's headquarters - a former Republican Guard training camp outside of the city of Hit - we went along on a raid to arrest two suspected members of Saddam Hussein's Fedaheen militia. The men allegedly had put a bounty on the head of U.S. soldiers.
So much for boring.
We now have moved into western Iraq to check out 3rd Squadron's missions out here. The soldiers are controlling two border checkpoints - one into Jordan and one into Syria - and patrolling the small city of Rutbah.
Third Squadron is spread across an area about 300 miles long and 100 miles wide in western Iraq.
Killer and Maddog troops and parts of Havoc, Ironhawk, Lightning and Regulator troops are stationed in or around Hit. The rest of Lightning, Ironhawk and Havoc are in Rutbah or at the borders.
This area of Iraq is barren, tribal country, where the people seem supportive of U.S. forces and there haven't been any serious attacks. The risks don't seem as great as in the contentious cities west of Baghdad being patrolled by 2nd Squadron.
But from what we have seen in just a day, there is dangerous work to be done in this part of Iraq.
Navy rethinking deployment strategy
By James W. Crawley, from Globalsecurity.org
The Iraq war has so upset the Navy's carrier deployment schedule that admirals are shelving prewar plans and rethinking the strategy for dispatching naval power to faraway trouble spots.
In the meantime, with nearly a third of the fleet deployed or returning from wartime service, it may take up to six months before the Navy could deploy a similar force to handle another large-scale contingency, such as operations against a hostile North Korea.
USMC’s 2nd Tank Battalion in Iraq
By Jim Landers, from Globalsecurity.org
The Marines' 2nd Tank Battalion used speed and armor to make quick work of Saddam Hussein's regime
AL AZIZIYAH, Iraq — The Iraqis fired rocket-propelled grenades from behind a taxi parked along a distant canal. One grenade zipped across the nose of an armored amphibious vehicle and exploded in the dirt.
That angered Maj. Andrew Bianca, executive officer of the Marines' 2nd Tank Battalion. Sheathed in aluminum plate, the tracked amphibious vehicles known as amtracks can withstand rifle fire, but not rocket grenades. And Maj. Bianca's support team was in amtracks. He ordered his tank crew to fire a round at the Iraqis
May 19, 2003
Six Killed in Afghan Infighting
50 dead in Philippines operation against MILF
A Day’s Work On Stability Operations in Iraq
Pakistan Army Wants Musharraf to Stay as President, COAS May 17
US Bases in Afghanistan Attacked Numerous Times May 17
Crisis in New Palestine Government May 17
Brookings Institute Update May 16
Six killed in Afghan infighting
MAZAR-I-SHARIF: Six militiamen were killed and 10 wounded in fighting between rival factions in northern Afghanistan, an official said on Sunday.
Junbish forces captured Goshfendi district of Sar-i-Pul province on Saturday evening, 100 kilometres south-west of Mazar, after three days of fighting Jamiat troops, said General Abdul Sabor, spokesman for Jamiat chief and army 7th corps commander Atta Mohammad.
"Finally last night the district was captured by the Junbish forces who had gathered around Goshfendi from three surrounding districts," Sabor told AFP. "Six of our men were killed, 10 wounded and more than 150 houses and the bazaar were looted by Junbish forces. "About 160 families left Goshfendi and fled to Sangcharak district. Now our forces are not in Goshfendi district."
He said separate clashes between Junbish and Jamiat in Dara-i-Sauf on Saturday produced no casualties. Junbish official Majeed Rozi, Abdul Rashid Dostam, denied there was any fighting in the region. "In fact there wasn't any serious fighting in Sar-i-Pul," he said. "Smaller clashes in Goshfendi have been going on for months."
He claimed the people of the district rose against the Jamiat commander and forced him to leave. "There was no looting and no one was killed," he said. At least five militiamen were killed in clashes between the rival factions on Thursday and Friday in Darr-i-Sauf district, Samangan province, 100 kilometres south of Mazar.
The Jamiat, a mainly Tajik group, and the Uzbek Jumbesh militia, led by former communist general and current Deputy Defence Minister Dostam, are fighting for control of the north and of Afghanistan's third city, Mazar-i-Sharif.
A third faction, the Hazara Shiite community's Hezb-i-Wahdat group, is also vying for control of the region. Fighting between Hezb-i-Wahdat and Jamiat left three dead in Mazar on Friday, including an Afghan officer tasked with maintaining security of United Nations buildings.
50 dead in Philippines operation against MILF
ZAMBOANGA, Philippines: Government troops have killed more than 50 Muslim separatist guerrillas in a major anti-terrorist operation in the southern Philippines, a senior military official said on Sunday.
Government troops began an artillery barrage and opened extensive ground operations against the separatist bases after Philippine President Gloria Arroyo ordered "selective aerial and artillery attacks to dislodge embedded terrorist cells."
She gave the order prior to departing for a state visit to the United States, which has provided military training and financial aid to the Philippine fight against the separatist guerrillas. The military fired at least 135 artillery rounds on Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) positions in two areas of Mindanao island over the past 24 hours, southern Philippines military chief Major General Roy Kyamco told reporters, though no bodies have been recovered.
A guerrilla spokesman, however, denied that his group had sustained any casualties in the operations that began on Saturday in both the Lanao region as well as in the Liguasan Marsh in central Mindanao.
"The military fired many rounds of howitzers and mortars in the towns of Poona Piagapo, Munai and Kauswagan," confirmed MILF spokesman Eid Kabalu, speaking by telephone. "We still don't have reports of casualties on both sides," he said, adding that MILF rebels killed three soldiers in a separate clash on Saturday near the town of Mlang in central Mindanao. The military did not report any casualties in the area.
Fighting was also reported on Sunday on the Zamboanga peninsula as well as in Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat provinces. The 12,500-member MILF has been waging a 25-year guerrilla campaign to set up an Islamic state in the southern third of the largely Roman Catholic Philippine islands.
"There is also an operation going on against 200 MILF terrorists in Zamboanga del Norte" province, said the Army division commander in the area, Major General Trifonio Salazar. He said heavy rain and overcast skies are preventing the military from launching aircraft to support ground troops.
A Day’s Work On Stability Operations in Iraq
CENTCOM news release May 18, 2003.
CAMP DOHA, Kuwait -- Coalition Forces continue to aggressively patrol to make Iraq safer for all Iraqis by eliminating smuggling and trade in weapons and explosives. Coalition Forces also continue to conduct joint security patrols with Iraqi police in efforts to increase the professionalism of the police force and prepare them for their role in a self-governed Iraq.
Coalition Activity:
A patrol from Third Battalion, 23rd Marine Regiment engaged several Iraqis in a truck, who fired at an Iraqi police station in An Numaniya early this morning. They chased it into a neighborhood and were able to track the suspects to a house. They captured two wounded Iraqis, who were then transported to the local hospital. A woman and a third man are being questioned.
A joint patrol consisting of 143d Military Police Company soldiers and Iraqi police observed three Iraqis attempting a robbery in Baghdad on Friday. Iraqi police apprehended one of the robbers, while the other two fled the scene on foot.
The 527th Military Police Company received a complaint of a drunk and disorderly person shooting in Baghdad on Friday. The individual was taken into custody by civilians on the scene and released to the Iraqi Police Force (IPF). The IPF confiscated the weapon and the offender transported to the AL Kazamiyah police station.
The 143rd Military Police Company responded to an attempted robbery and auto theft on Thursday in Baghdad. Two Iraqis attempted to force an Iraqi citizen from his car at gunpoint and tried to run away when the military policemen arrived on the scene. They caught one suspect and turned him over to Iraqi police. The second suspect got away. Iraqi police are investigating.
Iraqi police trainees in As Samawah completed a two-day training program yesterday.
During the last 24 hours, 3d Infantry Division soldiers conducted 95 vehicle searches at traffic control points in Baghdad and confiscated 27 weapons.
The 18th Military Police Brigade units returned eight police stations back into service. Assessments of personnel and facilities at 43 Iraqi Police Force stations began yesterday. Eighty-nine percent of the Baghdad police force returned to work to date.
The Iraqi police force in As Samawah successfully replaced the local militia in the city. The militia will now operate outside the city. Their first key task is to prevent criminal gangs from tapping into the oil pipeline 40 kilometers northeast of the city.
Judges in Ad Diwaniyah now operate 24 hours a day in conjunction with the police.
Governance Support Team representatives from 1st Battalion, 4th Marines and the local police chief in Al Hillah met with local judges recently to discuss the rights and proper treatment of prisoners while in police custody. They will also discuss the development of a process to ensure the proper treatment of prisoners while they are in the criminal justice system. The Marines presented awards to nine police officers at a police substation for bravery in apprehending two wanted men. The event was filmed for the local television station.
Police Activity in the Last 24 Hours:
Throughout Iraq, Coalition Forces conducted 33 raids and 1,599 patrols. Of the patrols, 192 were conducted jointly with Iraqi Police. The following are highlights of the patrolling effort:
Baghdad: Coalition Forces conducted one raid and 444 patrols. Nineteen of the patrols were conducted jointly with Iraqi police. These patrols made 431 arrests for various crimes, including looting, curfew violations, weapons violations, theft and robbery. They also seized 38 rifles and four pistols.
Kirkuk: Coalition Forces conducted 84 patrols, nine of which were conducted jointly with Iraqi police. They arrested 21 Iraqis for weapons possession, establishing illegal checkpoints, assault, looting and disorderly conduct. The patrols also seized 20 AK-47 rifles, three pistols and a knife.
Tikrit: Coalition Forces conducted 14 patrols, three of which were conducted jointly with Iraqi police. The patrols seized two 60mm mortars, several rounds of mortar ammunition and two AK-47 rifles. They arrested four suspects for weapons smuggling and illicit arms sales.
Ar Ramadi: Coalition Forces conducted one raid and one patrol. They seized two rifles, a pistol and a bayonet. They also arrested four individuals with Ba'ath Party affiliations.
Al Amarah: Coalition Forces conducted one raid and 21 patrols. Six of the patrols were conducted jointly with Iraqi police. One rocket-propelled grenade launcher and a truck were seized.
Baqubah: Coalition Forces conducted 86 patrols, resulting in 10 arrests for weapons possession, and confiscated 39 AK-47 rifles, as well as seven heavy machine guns.
Al Basrah: Coalition Forces conducted 29 raids and 106 patrols. Twenty-five of the patrols were conducted jointly with Iraqi police. They seized seven AK-47 rifles, a bayonet and about 2,000 rounds of rifle ammunition. Four Iraqis were arrested for crimes including theft, smuggling and making threats to life.
May 17, 2003
Pakistan Army Wants Musharraf to Stay as President, COAS
US Bases in Afghanistan Attacked Numerous Times
Crisis in New Palestine Government
Brookings Institute Update May 16
Headlines from Debka May 15
US-India Defense Cooperation May 14
Kiowa helicopters provide eyes, ears in risky
atmosphere May 14
Pakistan Army wants Musharraf to stay as president, COAS
For full story by Kamran Khan, click Jung KARACHI: Notwithstanding objections from the opposition parties to President Pervez Musharraf's continuation as the President as well as the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), almost the entire top command and staff hierarchy of the Pakistan Army believe the present structure and equation of governance in Pakistan -- because of current geo-strategic environment -- serve the best interest of the nation, senior officials and other well-informed sources have said.
US bases in two Afghan provinces attacked numerous times
From IRNA
IRNA Kabul, May 15, IRNA -- United States military bases in Afghanistan's southeast provinces of Paktia and Paktika were attacked several times on Wednesday. The US forces's command and control headquarters in Afghanistan issued a press release on Wednesday night announcing, "in the first attack, two rockets hit US bases in Gardiz, the capital city of Paktia Province, and in Argoun, the capital of Afghanistan's Paktika Province, which inflicted some material losses."
The US military press release claims the attacks, conducted at dawn, Wednesday, caused no casualties. The second attack to the US forces, according to the press release, was launched against another US military base in Ashgin region of Paktika Province of Afghanistan, in which four rockets were shot, but leading to no casualties, again. The US Command and Control Headquarters has added, "In response to those attacks, the US military forces in Afghanistan fired several 105 mm rockets at the hideouts of the opponents, forcing them to retreat to remote destinations."
Elsewhere in the military statement we read, "Three armed men were seen during the attack against the US base in Ashgin, who fled into Pakistan's soil following the attack." It says that another planned attack of the opponent forces was foiled near Gardiz, in which heavy artillery aimed at US military bases were spotted and confiscated. Two people were arrested in the said attack. Also in a preemptive operation, the US military forces discovered and confiscated an arms and ammunition warehouse in Ashgin region of Paktia Province on Wednesday evening.
Afghanistan's Paktia, Paktika, and Khost provinces in southeast of Afghanistan have been witness to a new wave of the joint Al-Qaeda, Taliban, and Golboddin Hekmatyar's Islamic Party attacks during the past two months against the US forces, as well as the central Afghan government officials and military forces. The US and Afghan officials have announced that those three groups have recently formed a practical coalition, aimed at boosting their military attacks throughout Afghanistan. The command and control headquarters of the said trilateral anti-US coalition is in Pakistan's tribal regions, according to the US and Afghan officials.
Crisis in new Palestine Government
For full story, read Arabnews.com
JERICHO, West Bank, 17 May 2003 — A political crisis loomed over the new Palestinian government as Negotiations Minister Saeb Erekat resigned yesterday, a day before a key meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart, Mahmoud Abbas [also called Abu Mazan].
The political crisis further jeopardized the already tattered road map for peace as tension on the ground remained high, with the Israeli army staging yet another massive operation in the northern Gaza Strip. In a phone call to AFP here, Erekat, an MP for the city, said he submitted his resignation to Abbas. He refused to explain why.
May 16, 2003
Brookings Institute Update
Headlines from Debka May 15
US-India Defense Cooperation May 14
Kiowa helicopters provide eyes, ears in risky
atmosphere May 14
Stories from Saudi Arabia's Arab News May 13
Media Won't Report About Pro-U.S. Iraqis May 12
American Empire, Not “If” but “What Kind”
For all the debate over whether or not the United States should be an
empire, that question is beside the point. Like it or not, the power and
reach of the United States have already turned it into an empire. The real
debate, then, is not whether to have an empire, but what kind, writes Ivo
H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay.
Brookings
U.S. Can’t Relax Anti-Terror Steps
Michael E. O’Hanlon makes several policy observations and examines their
implications in light of the bombings in Saudi Arabia.
Brookings
Immigrants and National Security
James M. Lindsay and Gregory Michaelidis argue that President Bush should
reconsider his attorney general's initiatives. A wiser approach to
tackling his legitimate concerns about illegal immigration would be to
revive the initiative the White House was preparing in summer 2001 to
overhaul the temporary work visa program for Mexican nationals. In
addition, worries about abuses of the refugee program can be better
handled by enhancing the system of courts that hear asylum cases.
Brookings
Plenty of Potholes in the Path to Peace
Shibley Telhami states that the Bush administration's dilemma is clear as
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell travels to Israel and the West Bank to
push for implementation of the "road map" that the administration has
unveiled with Russia, the Europeans and the United Nations. On one side,
President Bush has stated that he is personally committed to establishing
a Palestinian state within three years and to the road map drawn up to get
there. On the other side, it is clear that the road map was designed to
deflect international pressure to revive Arab-Israeli negotiations before
the Iraq war.
Brookings
America Slams the Door (On Its Foot): Washington’s Destructive New Visa Policies
Washington’s present homeland security policy, shaped by panic-driven
regulations and unfunded or ill-crafted mandates, is undermining this
openness and harming America’s broader foreign policy. Rather than
combating growing radicalism and anti-Americanism of many Muslim youths
around the world, the stringent new visa policies only feeding such
resentment. At a time when the United States needs pro-American
ambassadors more than ever, its government seems bent on turning away the
next generation of them, writes Peter W. Singer.
Brookings
A Trusteeship for Palestine?
Should President Bush decide to seize such a moment of diplomatic ripening
and try his hand at Arab-Israeli peacemaking, he would find that a
remarkable consensus has formed around his own vision of a two-state
solution to the conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has
endorsed this vision, as have majorities of the Israeli and Palestinian
publics, and the international community believes in it, writes Martin
Indyk.
Brookings
Must Innocents Die? The Islamic Debate Over Suicide Attacks
Haim Malka writes that the debate over "martyrdom operations" may continue
for a long time to come. And at this moment in time, those in favor of
such attacks seem to be scoring points. Cairo and Riyadh remain reluctant
to oppose such attacks fully in clear and definitive language, and such
attacks continue. Perhaps their hesitation has to do with the answer to
this question: Even if they were to call unambiguously for an end to the
suicide attacks, would anyone heed them?
Brookings
How Much Oil Does Iraq Have?
Gal Luft writes that now that Iraq's oil has been secured by coalition
forces and hopefully will soon be brought back on stream, it is time to
solve a potentially important mystery: how much Iraqi oil is actually
there? Petroleum analysis is often a fuzzy business, and there is no
guarantee that one analysis regarding Iraq's reserves is closer to the
truth than another. But a comprehensive assessment of Iraq's oil and gas
endowment is essential not only for Iraq's future, but also for the
economic and strategic security of the United States and the world at
large.
Brookings
Headlines from Debka
US-India Defense Cooperation May 14
Kiowa helicopters provide eyes, ears in risky
atmosphere May 14
Stories from Saudi Arabia's Arab News May 13
Media Won't Report About Pro-U.S. Iraqis May 12
Editor's Note: Debka.com is an Israeli internet newsletter that appears to have amazing inside sources. During Gulf II we were able to measure Debka's daily claims against events, and found that as often as not, Debka was right in its scoops. Nonetheless, many of the scoops could simply have been news from other Israeli media, which is - understandably - quite savvy about Mideast events. Other scoops could have been simple inference from a logical analysis of the situation, such as we often make, but are careful to label the inference as such, instead of grandly saying "Orbat.com military sources say" or "Orbat.com intelligence sources say". Debka can also be quite wrong, and it has a definite agenda which we, as outsiders, don't particularly understand. For example, Debka seems absolutely opposed to any kind of gesture, overture, proposal, or settlement with the people of Palestine - Sharon is too soft for them. So when you read Debka, which we urge you to do, please remember you have to make up your own mind about what it says, and if you do not feel competent to do so, treat Debka with caution until otherwise proved.
Debka Headlines
Even after Bush talked to Crown Prince Abdullah Wednesday, Saudis still balk at allowing FBI team into kingdom to examine al Qaeda suicide attack scenes in Riyadh.
US agents are waiting in Germany anxious that fresh evidence on ground will be lost in delay. US Ambassador criticizes Saudis for not doing enough to protect Westerners’ compounds.
Second bomb attack in Chechnya this week kills at least 30 people and injures many, apparently perpetrated by woman suicide. Blast in Iliskhan-Yurt 45 miles from Grozny occurred Wednesday when Powell was visiting Kremlin.
He heard Putin liken first Chechen attack that killed 59 Sunday to the three al Qaeda bomb attacks in Riyadh Monday. Several hours later, Chechen Emergencies Minister Avtayev claimed no more than 14 lives were lost.
Paratroop operation in West Bank town of Qalqilya ends with detention of 18-year old man preparing suicide operation in Israeli town of Petach Tikva. With him four operatives, one a woman. French foreign ministry reports two French citizens detained by Israeli police, awaits explanation
Mofaz reports to cabinet on marked increase in last two weeks of Palestinian terrorist attempts with little hope of future improvement. All terror groups determined to carry out mega-attack in Israeli city, including Tel Aviv. He said Abu Mazen government remains grounded by Arafat’s obstacles.
Three Qassam rockets fired from Gaza Strip into Western Negev Wednesday night after first three against southern Israeli town of Sderot Wednesday morning. Two landed in town. In Gaza Strip, Israeli soldiers engaged four armed Palestinian terrorists near Netzarim, killing them in shootout.
Further south, Israeli raiding force with helicopter cover destroyed firing positions used for shooting anti-tank rockets, mortar fire and sniping in Khan Younes. Palestinians report 18 injured.
DEBKAfile’s Intelligence Sources Report: Al Qaeda’s bomb attacks in Riyadh Monday night were opening shots of fresh terror campaign against US and Saudi Arabia timed for end of Iraq War. Probable next targets: oil facilities, airports and airliners.
Hundreds of al Qaeda terrorists await next instructions in Saudi cities – among them US and Canadian nationals and turncoat Saudi soldiers
No deal with Putin on UN resolution to end Iraq sanctions at end of Powell’s talks in Moscow Wednesday. Russia’s lower house ratifies new nuclear arms control treaty with the US, slashing their arsenals by two-thirds – as “gift to Bush” in advance of US-Russian summit next month.
Israeli Islamic leader Raed Salah allowed break Wednesday in 12-day remand to attend father’s funeral in Umm al Fahm. Procession turns into Islamic anti-Israel protest rally.
Fifteen heads of movement accused of money laundering for Hamas and channeling funds to families of Palestinian suicide killers in West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Saturday night, Sharon and Abu Mazen hold first meeting since Palestinian prime minister appointed.
Seventeen of 32 European tourists – 10 Austrians, 6 Germans, 1 Swede - missing on adventure trek in Sahara are rescued by Algerian task force. Algerian army says party kidnapped by radical Salafist group GSPC linked to al Qaeda. Fate of remaining tourists unclear.
May 14, 2003
US-India Defense Cooperation
Kiowa helicopters provide eyes, ears in risky
atmosphere
Stories from Saudi Arabia's Arab News May 13
Media Won't Report About Pro-U.S. Iraqis May 12
News from Pakistan’s Jung May 12
India Says Pakistan Infiltration Not Reduced May 10
U.S.-India Defense Cooperation
Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, an article by Robert Blackwill, US Ambassador to Washington, from the Hindu.
While joint training, visits, and exchanges have become familiar evidence of how U.S.-India relations have changed significantly... the way both countries now view defence sales presages greater bilateral cooperation in the future.
A DRAMATIC demonstration of the rapidly growing U.S.-India defence relationship recently took place in the dense jungles of Mizoram. There, American Special Operations Forces engaged their Indian counterparts in joint combined training called Exercise Balance Iroquois 03-1/Vajra Prahar. This exercise taught some of the most elite units in the U.S. and Indian armed forces how to employ combat teams in jungle terrain more effectively; detect the characteristics and modus operandi of terrorists operating within a jungle environment; and develop more effective tactics for tracking, patrolling, reconnaissance, surveillance, raids, and ambushes of terrorists operating in dense vegetation. Morale and camaraderie among the troops on both sides were outstanding, U.S. and Indian units learning from one another about the challenges of combating terrorism in a jungle environment.
This initiative is one of a string of "firsts" in the continuing transformation of U.S.-India relations, and followed quickly on the heels of a most successful visit by General William J. Begert, Commander, Pacific Air Forces, to India. Gen. Begert's trip, his second to India within two years, involved a week-long tour of numerous Indian Air Force (IAF) facilities, and hours of professional planning with his IAF counterparts as well as with senior leaders of the Indian Army and Indian Navy. A high point of the General's stay was when he piloted India's newest and most sophisticated fighter, the SU-30MKI.Gen. Begert's visit, in conjunction with other deliberations between the U.S. and India, now sets the stage for an even more significant event: the first-ever air combat exercises between the best U.S. and Indian fighter squadrons in early 2004.
These dramatic advances in bilateral defence interaction extend to all three services. Within the next few months the U.S. Navy's elite SEALS and the Indian Navy's Marine Commando Force will conduct their premier joint exercise to test their unconventional and clandestine warfare skills. These collaborative activities — along with a long line of training operations, seminars, senior officer exchanges, and unit and ship visits that have taken place over the last two years — signal that defence cooperation is a vibrant, visible, and expanding aspect of the transformed U.S.-India relationship. From virtually no interaction in January 2001, the United States and India today have completed seven major military exercises, including Geronimo Thrust in Alaska, yet another first-ever endeavour, which involved Indian forces and aircraft on American soil. Other significant milestones were the first USAF-IAF airlift inter-operability training operation, COPE INDIA 02, in Agra; and the first and largest peacekeeping command-post exercise ever held in South Asia, co-hosted by the Indian Army and U.S. Army Pacific.
This record demonstrates that the United States and India have developed the understanding that comes from a series of solid and expanding cooperation programmes. The last two years have witnessed India taking on a leadership role in several new areas including planning and training for multilateral peacekeeping operations. Further, the Indian Army has agreed to co-host the 2004 Pacific Armies Management Seminar (PAMS), a yearly meeting of the senior army leadership in the Pacific region. India has also generously hosted the bi-annual visits of CAPSTONE, the final training course required of all U.S. officers slated for promotion to flag rank in each of the four military services, and the yearly visits of all Senior Service War Colleges, the Command and General Staff College, and Military Academy Cadets.
While joint training, visits, and exchanges have become familiar evidence of how U.S.-India relations have changed significantly for the better under the leadership of President Bush and Prime Minister Vajpayee, the way both countries now view defence sales also presages greater bilateral cooperation in the future. In this area, there have been a number of breakthroughs recently that have put the United States and India on the road to a stable, long-term defence supply relationship. The Bush Administration has worked with the Congress to amend the law requiring congressional notification of all applications for export to India of items on the U.S. munitions list. Since October 24, 2002, only those Major Defence Equipment (MDE) items above $14 million now require congressional notice. This modification puts India in the same category with American Treaty Allies such as South Korea and Japan. India has also recently leased several additional US fire-finding/weapon locating radars, in addition to those already contracted for purchase. Representatives from the Indian Army and the United States Army are examining the Indian Army's request for significant Special Forces equipment and chemical and biological protection gear. And the U.S. and India are looking into possible sales of U.S. Navy P3 maritime patrol aircraft for the Indian Navy.
Taken together, our defence cooperation and military sales activities intensify the working relationship between the respective armed forces, build mutual military capacities for future joint operations, and strengthen Indian military capability, which is in America's national interest. As the recently issued National Security Strategy of the United States, a policy document that bears the personal stamp of President Bush, proclaimed:
"...the United States has undertaken a transformation in its bilateral relationship with India based on a conviction that U.S. interests require a strong relationship with India. We are the two largest democracies, committed to political freedom protected by representative government. India is moving toward greater economic freedom as well. We have a common interest in the free flow of commerce, including through the vital sea-lanes of the Indian Ocean. Finally, we share an interest in fighting terrorism and in creating a strategically stable Asia... we start with a view of India as a growing world power with which we have common strategic interests."
Given this crucial conviction on the part of the Bush Administration, what should the U.S.-India defence relationship aim for in the future? In the near-term, we will successfully conclude the next Defence Policy Group meeting in order to authorise more ambitious initiatives for the year ahead. This could increase the scale, diversity, and complexity of military exercises; advance cooperation in missile defence; resuscitate the Joint Technical Group; and, review the Agreed Minute on U.S.-India defence cooperation to accommodate both the new defence institutions that have arisen in India, and the rapid progress witnessed in our bilateral defence relations during the past two years.
Over the longer-term, our two countries should aim to achieve other consequential goals. First, the U.S. and Indian navies could plan and execute a variety of joint operations in the Indian Ocean. Second, India could service the rest, repair, and replenishment needs of various American military units operating around the South Asian landmass. Third, the U.S. and India could share much more information, improve doctrine, and conduct exercises in support of joint counter-proliferation operations. Fourth, India could collaborate with the U.S. in peacekeeping operations, including by playing a greater role in providing intra-theatre lift for third countries involved in humanitarian or peacekeeping missions. Finally, U.S.-India defence trade, particularly through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme, should increase in order to bolster bilateral defence ties and boost inter-operability between U.S. forces and those of India.
An Indian military that is capable of operating effectively alongside its American counterparts remains an important goal of our bilateral defence relationship. What we have achieved since January 2001 builds a strong foundation on which to consummate this strategic objective, which will promote peace and freedom in Asia, and beyond.
Kiowa helicopters provide eyes, ears in risky atmosphere
Forwarded by Mike Krohn, an article by John Diedrich of the Colorado Springs, Colorado, Gazette.
We like this story on the US 4/3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment [the 4th Squadron is the air component of the 3rd ACR, which is the size of a large brigade] because it conveys some of the reality of stabilization operations in Iraq, and vividly shows what helicopter crews experience every day.
The incident described at the start, involving a reconnaissance platoon, also shows the US military would have been acting irresponsibly had it dispersed its forces all over Iraq in protecting all the hospitals, power plants, etc that people wanted protected. A brigade with three maneuver battalions has 27 fighting platoons; after deducting for base protection, L of C protection, downtime for platoons, reactions forces and the like, at best a quarter of the force can be spared for guarding installations and buildings, and even this can be optimistic.
It can also be argued a platoon is too small a force for guard duty in a hostile environment: it will not overawe the locals, which means the platoon may have to resort to fighting to get out of a bad situation. Given US firepower, the platoon may well make it out of trouble with no losses. But the sight of US forces mowing down hundreds of locals would not play well with the media.
Of course, the converse can be argued: given the thug culture prevalent in today’s Iraq, perhaps a few incidents with a couple of thousands of Iraqis killed would put some sense back into the locals. Nonetheless, given the US sensitivity to inflicting civilian losses, a hands off approach to the locals was perhaps inevitable.
TAQADDUM AIR BASE, Iraq – The Fort Carson soldiers were in a jam.
Their four Bradley Fighting Vehicles were sandwiched between a dead-end alley on the front and a growing crowd of Iraqis in the back.
The soldiers had taken a wrong turn and were trapped, facing the possibility of an attack from the crowd or one of the buildings around them.
The ground commander radioed for any Army helicopter in the area to respond.
Chief Warrant Officer Tracy Forehand and fellow Kiowa pilot Lt. Adrineh Shahijanian had a mission: Get rid of that crowd.
Forehand, on the controls, came in fast and low, just above the buildings. Shahijanian watched for wires.
Forehand buzzed by once, climbed a few hundred feet, paused, turned and barreled back down for a second pass.
The crowd was already running.
Helicopters — particularly the small, armed Kiowas — are the overhead eyes and guns for Fort Carson ground soldiers who are trying to bring security to lawless Iraqi cities and snatch wanted people, such as arms dealers and former Baath Party members.
The 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment’s Outlaw Troop — a unit of 30 people, half of them pilots – supports units patrolling Ramadi, Habbaniyah and Fallujah, Baath Party strongholds where other Fort Carson troops are based.
Action in the cities has been intense — attacks, raids and explosions.
Soldiers say the single-engine, two-seat Kiowa is well-suited to this mission. It’s small, agile and fast and carries rockets, missiles and machine guns. At night the crew can pick up anything that gives off heat, such as a person or recently fired weapon.
The attack Apache and all-purpose Black Hawk helicopters also prowl the skies here, but Kiowas are doing most of the work over the cities west of Baghdad.
Three times a day, a pair of Kiowas lift off from the tarmac at this heavily bombed former Iraqi air base.
A typical mission is to watch over a raid by U.S. forces, telling ground commanders when suspects are trying to escape and warning them about what weaponry may await them. The crews also monitor crowds or buzz around the sky, letting locals know the Americans are in charge.
On nearly every mission, crews report shots fired at or near them.
Capt. Brendan Cullinan and fellow pilot Chief Warrant Officer Steven Rosini were on a routine patrol over Fallujah the night of May 4 when one of those shots came close.
Flying at about 350 feet, Rosini noticed the controls in the green, night-vision display flicker for a second. Then both pilots heard what sounded like an aluminum bat hitting the Kiowa.
“I thought, ‘We are going down. This is it,’” Rosini said. “It was so loud I figured we had to be hit.”
Someone on the ground had fired a shoulder-mounted rocket-propelled grenade at them, the same weapon that downed Black Hawk helicopters in Somalia. Since the Kiowa flies without lights at night, the attacker probably fired it at its sound.
“I was scared to move or touch anything, like we were on the edge of a cliff,” Cullinan said.
The pilots radioed that they were returning to the base to check for damage. There was none.
Other pilots in the unit figured the pair would take the rest of the night off. Cullinan and Rosini, who have flown together for two years, checked each other: You OK? Scared? No? Then let’s get back up there.
They flew for two more hours that night.
A few days later Cullinan and Rosini participated in a raid on the people suspected of firing at them. The ground soldiers arrested 11 but didn’t find the main suspect.
The pilots don’t harbor anger toward him.
“This is war. He took his shot and missed,” Rosini said. “We feel real lucky.”
Some pilots figure they can make their own luck by following certain routines. With 11 years of flight time, Forehand has one rule: Three strikes and you’re out.
It could be a mechanical problem, a close call with wires, shots fired. Three of those and Forehand heads back to the airfield.
“Today is not your day. Don’t keep pushing it,” said Forehand, a 38-year-old married father of two teen-agers.
Forehand and Shahijanian got two strikes Saturday night.
They flew to a checkpoint where ground soldiers had stopped a car loaded with weapons. Apaches flew in from the other direction and for some reason didn’t hear their radio signal. The Kiowa dove to avoid the Apaches. Strike one.
Later that night, they were flying typical speed — about 110 mph — when they hit a bird. It exploded on the clear bubble windshield.
Strike three never came, but Forehand said every pilot knows there doesn’t have to be any strikes for disaster to happen.
Everyone who has flown for a while has had close calls in the single-engine Kiowa. They constantly scan the terrain below for places to crash land if the engine quits.
Forehand shook his head at the news three Fort Carson soldiers were killed when their Black Hawk crashed in northern Iraq on Friday. Every year, at least one helicopter pilot Forehand knows or knows of dies in a crash.
But nobody is thinking about crashing when they pull on their sand-colored flight suits. It is just part of the job.
“I don’t consider it a gamble. I am confident in the aircraft,” said Chief Warrant Officer Nate Noyes, 30, whose wife is due with their first child in August.
“But there isn’t an aviator out there, who hasn’t thought, ‘If this engine fails right now, it is certain death.’”
May 13, 2003
Stories from Saudi Arabia's Arab News
Media Won't Report About Pro-U.S. Iraqis May 12
News from Pakistan’s Jung May 12
India Says Pakistan Infiltration Not Reduced May 10
Bush's Mideast Free Trade Zone Proposal May 10
News from Iran May 9
Stories from Saudi Arabia's Arab News
Bombs Rock Riyadh
Media Won't Report About Pro-U.S. Iraqis
News from Pakistan’s Jung
India Says Pakistan Infiltration Not Reduced May 10
Bush's Mideast Free Trade Zone Proposal May 10
News from Iran May 9
Brookings Institute Update May 8
Stories from Military.com [US] May 7
Media Won't Report About Pro-U.S. Iraqis
The following article from NewsMax.com was forwarded to us by reader Mark Krohn. One of the great ironies of the American media is that it has the best resources, and almost without exception it has very high quality staff. Its credibility with its own people, however, is none too high – the mainstream media keeps losing readership/viewership every year as readers turn to other sources, including the Internet. The article below helps explain, in a small way, why this is so.
Friday, May 9, 2003
The media establishment is playing down or ignoring the friendly dealings between U.S. forces and the people of Baghdad.
The press is not likely to write about the Iraqi women flirting with GIs, lifting their veils to smile or waving from windows, or children elbowing each other for a moment of attention with a soldier or even the extravagant expressions of gratitude that accompany every honeymoon-like encounter with the troops.
“Instead, you read story after story about the supposed fury of Baghdadis at the Americans for allowing the breakdown of law and order in their city,” according to a report by Jonathan Foreman in the May 12 issue of The Weekly Standard.
Foreman, a correspondent for the New York Post embedded with the Scout Platoon of the 4th Battalion, 64th Armored Regiment, 3rd Infantry Division, sees things quite differently.
“I’ve met hundreds of Iraqis as I accompanied army patrols all over the city during the past two weeks,” he writes, “and I’ve never encountered any such fury.”
He notes that there is “understandable frustration about the continuing failure of the Americans to get the water supply and the electricity turned back on, though the ubiquity of generators indicates that the latter was always a problem.”
In his column, Foreman gives many examples of skewered reporting by the media in Baghdad. He notes that “perhaps this is just another case of reporters with an anti-American or anti-war agenda. Perhaps living in Saddam’s totalitarian Baghdad has left some of the press here with a case of Stockholm syndrome.”
Whatever the cause, the result has been very selective reporting, according to Foreman.
The looting of Baghdad in the first days after the U.S. troops took key points of the city was “massively exaggerated and misrepresented” by the Associated Press's Hamza Hendawi, for instance. Hendawi described an “unchecked frenzy,” which Foreman writes did not exist. “The looting was targeted and nonviolent.”
Reports April 18 that “Tens of thousands of protesters demanding that the United States get out of Iraq” were exaggerated, particularly by Reuters’ Hassan Hafidh. Foreman writes that reporters seem to have confused a few protesters with a large number of Shia Muslims gathering for a pilgrimage to Karbala – a pilgrimage long forbidden by Saddam Hussein's regime.
Foreman notes that there are frequent small demonstrations in the blocks outside the Palestine and Sheraton hotels, “partly because that is where the press corps is congregated and also because it’s an area that many Baath party officials fled to after the war began.”
Far more typical and frequent demonstrations involve hundreds and even thousands of Iraqis gathering to cheer U.S. troops.
Stories that the military let the city, particularly hospitals and the national museum, be destroyed while guarding the Ministry of Oil are “myths,” Foreman writes. “The Marines defended only the streets around their own headquarters and so-called Areas of Operation.”
The Washington Post’s Rajiv Chandrasekaran quoted Saad Jawad, a professor of political science at Baghdad University, as saying: “The Iraqis had very high hopes for the Americans. But all this euphoria about change, all this relief, went away when they saw the amount of destruction to the infrastructure …” The reporter did not note in the story that roads, bridges, power stations and rail lines were all left unbombed and intact by U.S. forces.
News from Pakistan’s Jung
Powell fails to achieve breakthrough on peace in Mideast
OCCUPIED JERUSALEM: US Secretary of State Colin Powell held critical talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders on Sunday but emerged with no sign of progress in persuading them to begin implementing a peace "road map".
ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will provided $2.6 billion to Pakistan in next three years, besides coordinating regional trade from Gwadar via Afghanistan to Central Asian Republics (CARs).
Indian bid to obliterate UNMOGIP foiled
By Zia Iqbal Shahid
BRUSSELS: An Indian attempt to obliterate the United Nations Military Observers Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) has been foiled by the European members of the United Nations Security Council as they believe that the mandate of the UNMOGIP to supervise cease-fire between India and Pakistan is still valid, reliable European sources told The News.
Syria not to restrict Palestinian groups, says Assad
WASHINGTON: Syria and the United States failed to agree on US demands for the closure of the Damascus offices of Palestinian groups in talks earlier this month, Syrian President Bashar Assad said in an interview published here.
Afghans protest against amnesty to Taliban
KABUL: Several hundred Afghans staged a demonstration in Kabul on Sunday against President Hamid Karzai's offer of amnesty to some members of the ousted Taliban regime.
India Says Pakistan Infiltration Not Reduced
Bush's Mideast Free Trade Zone Proposal
News from Iran May 9
Brookings Institute Update May 8
Stories from Military.com [US] May 7
Armitage says infiltration down, figures tell another tale
For detailed article by Manoj Joshi, please click Times of India
NEW DELHI: The question was blunt, "Do you think the cross-border incursion into Indian Kashmir is down?" The answer was direct: "The cross-border violence and lethality are down from this time last year." But in India, US deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage's response to a Pakistani questioner at Thursday's press conference in Islamabad has few takers.
Figures available with the government do not quite tally with Armitage's assertions. Till May 8, some 54 terrorists have been killed trying to get across the Line of Control. This is almost identical to the figure of people killed in the same period in 2002.
U.S.: Arab states joining free trade zone must end Israel boycott
For complete story, please click Haartez
Senior administration officials said Friday that implicit in President George W. Bush's proposal to create a free trade zone in the Middle East is that participating Arab countries would drop their economic boycott of Israel, CNN reported.
Earlier Friday, President Bush promoted the Israeli-Palestinian peace process by dangling an attractive economic prize: the removal of U.S. trade barriers for countries in the Middle East within the next decade
May 9, 2003
News from Iran
Brookings Institute Update May 8
Stories from Military.com [US] May 7
Syrian FM: Powell's remarks neither threatening, nor warning May 6
India and Pakistan May 6
Reformist MPs call for restoring relations with US
Tehran, May 7, IRNA -- Some 154 members of the parliament on Wednesday called on the Foreign Ministry to adopt active diplomacy to restore relations with the United States as a "deterrent approach" to possible threats.
They said in a statement that popularity of the Islamic Republic makes it capable enough to turn the "threats" into "opportunity", adding that dealing with the threats against national security requires active diplomacy to communicate with outside world and explain national goals and democratic agenda of the Islamic Republic to other countries.
The MPs defended their call for restoring relations with the United States as being in line with the national interest and a democratic demand.
The MPs urged the Foreign Ministry to push for confidence building in the international scene and help remove any misunderstanding with other nations.
The statement maintained in the meantime that the recommendation is in line with the aspirations of the Islamic Revolution, independence of the country and freedom.
Referring to the events going on in Afghanistan and Iraq over the past two years, the statement said that ignoring the recommendation may cause disaster for the nation. Such a threat should be dealt with timely, it said.
Comparing the popularity of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the Iraqi 30-year-old dictatorship and Iran's eight-year sacred defense against the Iraqi-imposed war, the statement said that the Iraqi people did not defend their country against the coalition invasion because they no longer were willing that their national wealth being put at Saddam's disposal.
"We believe that the progress and bright prospects will be available with safeguarding the territorial integrity, independence, freedom and the Islamic Republic and that no excuse is acceptable to ignore our recommendation," the reformist MPs said.
The statement called on the other components of the system to appreciate the popularity of the Islamic Republic and not to allow the nation to be exposed to threats due to an idle diplomacy and the policymaking methods proved inefficient.
Iran reaches out to 'brotherly' Iraqis in post-Saddam
Orumiyeh, Iran, May 8, IRNA -- Intelligence Minister Ali Yunesi Thursday struck a conciliatory chord towards Iraq as he highlighted 'brotherly ties' between Iranians and Iraqis, who went into a destructive war under the regime of Saddam Hussein.
"The Iraqi and Iranian nations are brothers in the true sense of the word (although) jealousy made Saddam (Hussein) attack us," he told a session of local administrators in this northwestern city in the West Azarbaijan province.
The Iraqi people are optimistic about Iranians and this is a unique opportunity, Yunesi said, adding 'the Islamic Republic is decided to pave the ground for the establishment of stability and security' in Iraq.
"The Iraqi and Iranian nations bear no spite against each other. The two countries' religious cities have tied their nations and like Iran, there is no difference between Muslim Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq," he added.
The two countries are home to Shiite holy sites and both have a majority Shiite population.
Iran has scoffed at US charges that Tehran was interfering in Iraq by sending agents to 'destabilize the Shia population' in southern Iraq, describing the claim as 'baseless'.
The Islamic Republic has further condemned US for signing a ceasefire agreement with the Iranian opposition, Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO), dubbed as Munafeqin or hypocrites by the Islamic Republic.
MKO has internationally been classified as a 'terrorist organization', including by the United States and the European Union.
The group, officially outlawed in Iran because of a long record of political assassinations, bomb blasts and terrorist schemes since 1981, is based in neighboring Iraq from where it plans sporadic attacks against the Islamic Republic.
Yunesi said Iran did not send any troops inside Iraq after Saddam's ouster to crush MKO since "Munafeqin will automatically annihilate once the Iraqi people become victorious".
"Munafeqin were dependent on the (Iraqi) Baath regime and their fate had been tied with that of Saddam. Thus, we were not worried about them and we did not want to give any pretext to anybody (by sending troops to dismantle them inside Iraq)," he said.
Somewhere in his remarks, Yunesi said Iran is now at the peak of its richness in terms of having efficient and competent manpower, and "this has been worrying certain people".
Iranian Newspaper Warns Against Splitting Iraq On Ethnic Lines
Tehran, May 8, IRNA -- An Iranian newspaper Thursday warned against adverse consequences of Iraq's division on the basis of ethnicity and religious faith", that would be the `first experiment" of the kind in the Middle East.
English-language newspaper `Iran Daily' pointed to a plan for Iraq's division into three administrative and military regions on the basis of ethnicity and religious belief, with the central part and Baghdad being run by Americans, the southern part by Britons and Mosul by the Poles.
Iran Daily said the plan may not seem an important issue at the first shot but a bit closer scrutiny shows that this plan is actually in concord with the US-Israel strategies in that part of the globe.
It said the truth is that one Zionist plot is to "separate ethnic groups and religions." It added that the least outcome of this plan for Tel Aviv is to prove that different ethnic groups and people of different faith cannot coexist peacefully in the Middle East.
It added, "By doing so, Tel Aviv wants to superficially justify the separation of Jews and Palestinians." It said Iraq is apparently the first experiment of the kind in the Middle East.
The daily highlighted importance of Iraqi people's vigilance against the US-Israel plot, saying, "If for any reason the Iraqi nation does not demonstrate sufficient vigilance, the plan which stipulated Americans run central Iraq and Baghdad, the British handle the south and the Poles take charge of Mosul would serve as a prelude to the disintegration of Iraq."
It said what is more dangerous is that the Iraqis may themselves be deceived.
"History has it that the British for long engaged in "creating" ethnic entities in the Persian Gulf region. Many small emirates in the region are essentially the product of the false promise that the British made to Sharif Hussein, who revolted against the Ottoman Empire during WWI under British provocation," read the editorial, adding that despite the lapse of some 80 years, Arabs have not yet understood that they were deceived.
It said giving the affairs of southern to British forces is itself a "premeditated plan." It added that perhaps it is appealing for a majority religious group that Basra is run under the supervision of the British, but this does not guarantee the survival of the city.
The daily warned, "It is obvious that if Iraq cannot maintain its territorial and national unity for any reason, other regional countries will also face problems in the long run."
It said regional powers must understand that southern Iraq cannot survive on its own and it may be considered for bigger plans. "If regional states ignore the rights of ethnic and religious groups, it will not be very difficult for London to set up new countries.
It concluded, "Iraq's fate is locked with that of other regional countries. A federal Iraq, a divided Iraq or a united Iraq will eventually impose similar, if not identical conditions on the region to the detriment of peace and stability."
May 8, 2003
Brookings Institute Update
Stories from Military.com [US] May 7
Syrian FM: Powell's remarks neither threatening, nor warning May 6
India and Pakistan May 6
War Exposes Limits of America’s Diplomatic Power
Muqtedar Khan writes that the United States faces much tougher challenges
than those posed by either the French or the Fedayeen. The international
political battles that are yet to come will be more demanding.
www.brookings.edu
General Disagreement
Retired Gen. Perry Smith, Republican Sen. John W. Warner of Virginia, a
number of Bush administration officials and many others have publicly
chastised a number of retired generals, most of them Army officers, for
their supposedly unpatriotic acts of critiquing military operations while
U.S. troops were engaging with the Iraqi military. Michael E. O’Hanlon
argues that these critics of the critics are wrong.
Vigorous debate is not only eminently American, it is good for the way we
wage war.
www.brookings.edu
A Reality Check for the Rumsfeld Doctrine
Will Donald Rumsfeld, the US secretary of Defense who has just led a war
to remake Iraq, now turn his sights closer to home and remake the US
military? Michael E. O’Hanlon believes that Rumsfeld's accomplishments
with Operation Iraqi Freedom, will not radically reshape the US military.
www.brookings.edu
The Approach Turning Point: The Future of the U.S. Relations with the Gulf States
F. Gregory Gause writes that the United States policy toward the Gulf
Cooperation Council states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the
United Arab Emirates and Oman) is in the midst of an important change.
Saudi Arabia has served as the linchpin of American military and political
influence in the Gulf since Desert Storm. It can no longer play that role.
No matter the outcome of war with Iraq, the political and strategic logic
of basing American military power in these smaller Gulf states is
compelling.
www.brookings.edu
The Post-Saddam Iraq: The Shiite Factor
Amatzia Baram examines the role of the Shiites in a reconstructed Iraq.
www.brookings.edu
Is Syria Next?
By doing in Iraq what many (including perhaps Saddam Hussein) thought he
would never dare do, President Bush has at least sent a message to Syria
and other states in the region that the threat of U.S. military power is
not merely theoretical. Whether Syria ever does become a target of that
military power probably depends as much on the thinking in Damascus as it
does on the thinking in Washington, writes Phillip H. Gordon.
www.brookings.edu
How to Get Syria out of the Terrorism Business
Flynt L. Leverett argues that it will not be enough for American officials
simply to show up in Damascus, present a list of complaints about Syrian
ties to Hezbollah and Hamas, and expect Mr. Assad to take action. This
time around we should avoid generalities and consistently identify for Mr.
Assad the specific steps he needs to take.
www.brookings.edu
The Other Vietnam Syndrome
Americans make poor imperialists because we are uncomfortable in the role
and seek the most expedient path out of it. With the scant 18-month time
frame the administration has allowed for political reconstruction in Iraq,
if that, we run a high risk of repeating past mistakes. That possibility
is even greater if we attempt to direct Iraqi political development alone.
For Iraq's sake, and our own, the time has come to bring in the
international community, writes Catharin E. Dalpino.
www.brookings.edu
Remove a Vestige of Vietnam War
Catharin E. Dalpino and Edward Gresser argue that as the United States
moves to conclude a new war in a new era, it has unfinished business from
a war in the now distant past. It is time to remove the last vestiges of
the Vietnam War in U.S. policy toward small, isolated Laos.
www.brookings.edu
The Democratic Party and Foreign Policy
If George W. Bush is not to be elected to a second term practically by
acclamation, the leaders of the Democratic Party—and others skeptical of
the president's ability to pursue a truly sensible and realistic foreign
policy—will have to do a better job than they did in the 2002 midterm
elections of convincing the American public that they are capable of
offering a viable alternative, write Dana H. Allin, Michael E. O’Hanlon
and Phillip H. Gordon.
www.brookings.edu
For full stories, please go to Military.com of May 6, 2003
France Gave Passports To Help Iraqis Escape
Washington Times ( MAY. 06)
The French government secretly supplied fleeing Iraqi officials with passports in Syria that allowed them to escape to Europe, The Washington Times has learned. An unknown number of Iraqis who worked for Saddam Hussein's government were given passports by French officials in Syria, U.S. intelligence officials said. The passports are regarded as documents of the European Union, because of France's membership in the union, and have helped the Iraqis avoid capture, said officials familiar with intelligence reports.
Congress Eyes Speeding Citizenship For Aliens In Military
Washington Times ( MAY. 06)
A House panel today will begin considering bills to speed up citizenship for the 37,000 legal immigrants now on active duty in the military, and advocates for broader immigration say the bill could be a chance to push their agenda. Similar military bills are pending in the Senate, and those on both sides of the immigration debate say the legislation has strong support and is expected to pass sometime soon. "That's going to happen in any event, and they're going to start bringing their families," said Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary immigration subcommittee.
Al Qaeda Still A Global Threat
Washington Times (PARIS MAY. 06)
The al Qaeda terror network remains a serious threat, with sleeper cells and agents who "are always ready to act," the world's top justice and interior ministers said yesterday. "Terrorism continues to present both a pervasive and global threat to our societies," ministers from the Group of Eight nations said in a statement. They also warned of a risk that terrorists may use chemical, biological or nuclear weapons in attacks. [Orbat.com comment: this is a proforma statement; in reality, US intelligence believes Al Qaeda may well have been taken down.
U.S. Eyes Resolution To Lift Iraq Sanctions
Washington Times ( MAY. 06)
The United States is drafting a "principal" U.N. Security Council resolution on Iraq that would lift sanctions, outline a "coordinating" role for the United Nations and provide for other nations to take part in postwar reconstruction. The State Department said yesterday that the first resolution would be followed by several "auxiliary" measures aimed at various subsequent tasks, such as approval of a new Iraqi government and recovering antiquities stolen from the National Museum in Baghdad. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell will travel to three countries that hold Security Council seats, Russia, Germany and Bulgaria, next week to seek support for the main resolution, having done so in Spain last week.
Critics: Iraq War Shows New Jets Aren't Needed
Miami Herald (MAY. 06)
The effectiveness of the F-16 and other aging combat planes during the Iraq war is fanning a debate over the need for new fighter programs that are expected to cost taxpayers more than $300 billion. Reasserting its reputation as one of the world's most versatile fighters, the F-16 flew more than 2,000 missions against Iraqi troops, missile sites, artillery emplacements and leadership targets. In Washington, critics of expanding defense budgets point to the F-16's performance to build their case against next-generation fighters that the Air Force says are crucial to U.S. dominance in the skies.
May 6, 2003 Syrian FM: Powell's remarks neither threatening, nor warningSyrian FM: Powell's remarks neither threatening, nor warning
For full story, click IRNA [Iran official agency]
Damascus, May 6, IRNA -- The Syrian foreign minister Farouq al-Shara said here on Monday night that some dailies have misquoted him in claiming that the US secretary of state has both warned and threatened Syria in his talks in Damascus.
Al-Shara said that his talks with his American counterpart Colin Powell were quite transparent, and despite some dailies articles that have quoted him, Powell's remarks in Damascus were neither threatening, nor warning.
Indian Armed forces plan to induct more UAVs ]
NEW DELHI: The armed forces are gearing up to induct more UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) or spy drones into their inventory to bolster their reconnaissance capabilities.
``The critical role played by UAVs was brought home during Operation Parakram (the 10-month forward deployment along the Indo-Pak border) last year...they are a crucial force-multiplier in modern-day battle,'' said an officer.
India is primarily looking at Israel for acquiring more spy drones. New Delhi has already procured several ``Searcher-II'' and ``Heron'' UAVs from Israel over the last two years.
Based on the experience gained during Operation Parakram with the two UAV squadrons of the IAF, a case for procuring three additional squadrons of UAVs and associated equipment from M/s IAI Malat of Israel has been taken up under the fast-track procedure to meet urgent operational requirements. The total cost of the project is [$130 million].
India is also negotiating joint production of the ``Heron'' UAVs, which can undertake an autonomous 1,000-km flight and operate over 30,000-feet altitude, with Israel.
While the Army and the IAF already have a few UAVs, the Navy has also now established a unit at Kochi with four ``Herons''. Similar naval UAV bases are planned for Port Blair and the Lakshwadeep Islands.
Both India and Pakistan had agressively deployed UAVs during Operation Parakram to monitor each other's troop movements and defences. Both sides also claimed to have shot down some spy drones from the other side. There were at least seven recorded Indian airspace violations by Pakistani UAVs during that period
Pakistan Prime Minister to announce CBMs to improve ties with India
For full story, click Times of India
NEW DELHI: Pakistan Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali will soon announce confidence-building measures to improve ties with India, Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri said on Monday night. "We have taken decisions. Prime Minister Jamali will announce them. It won't be too long," Kasuri told CNN's 'Q and A' programme, adding Pakistan was "prepared to go the whole hog".
May 5, 2003 More on the US 3rd ACR
Reader Mike Krohn says: “This provides a little better picture of the area the 3rd ACR is covering and the duties being performed. Quite a large task over a large area. Beginning to see how they can be running short on supplies! It appears that they are quite scattered about.”
Fort Carson soldiers guard large area in western Iraq
By JOHN DIEDRICH - THE GAZETTE
FALLUJAH, IRAQ - Fort Carson's 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment's mission here will be to maintain security along a huge swath of western Iraq, the unit's commander said Saturday.
Regiment officials earlier said the unit would be in northwestern Iraq, but orders send its squadrons farther south over an area about 200 by 150 miles.
The territory is divided among the regiment's three units of tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles and other equipment, a helicopter unit and a support unit.
Second Squadron is patrolling three cities west of Baghdad; 1st Squadron is in charge of the area west to the border to Syria and 3rd Squadron will control a large tract south to the Saudi Arabian border.
The support and helicopter squadrons will operate out of al Asad Air Base northwest of Baghdad.
The regiment's primary mission is to make sure it is safe for organizations delivering aid to move in, said Col. David Teeples, 3rd Cavalry commander.
Units are finding large caches of weapons, such as the one discovered Friday by 1st Squadron, but they are most concerned about retrieving and destroying the ammunition that pose the greatest risk to U.S. forces: small arms bullets, grenades and rocket-propelled grenades, Teeples said.
"If we stopped at every storage point and ammunition location, that is all we would do," Teeples said.
Third Squadron recently found a mass grave that the Kuwaiti government is interested in, because many people from that nation are still missing 12 years after the first Gulf War, Teeples said.
Fallujah, a stronghold for Saddam Hussein west of Baghdad, continues to be the hottest place in the regiment's area.
Soldiers from another Army unit this week shot and killed between 7 and 17 Iraqis, depending on reports.
Early Thursday, attackers threw grenades at a compound occupied by 2nd Squadron's Fox Troop, injuring seven soldiers.
There have been no serious incidents since then. The unit instituted a 10 p.m. curfew Friday.
Late Saturday, Fox Troop rolled out six Bradley Fighting Vehicles after a foot patrol was told locals with rocket-propelled grenades were coming for them.
The men never showed, but soldiers were on edge for an attack at the compound they occupy in the middle of town.
May 3, 2003
Letter on President Musharraf from A.H. Amin
US 3rd ACR Still Facing Shortages in Iraq
South Asia May 2
Fallujah, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment May 1, 2003
Iraq, Israel April 30
President Musharraf's Crisis April 29
Asefi warns Iranian pilgrims not to make visits to Iraq April 29
Parades for national day can't hide weakness in Afghan army April 29
Letter on President Musharraf from A.H. Amin
President Musharraf is widely perceived as USA' s most loyal follower in Pakistan and there is a general consensus that he will deliver to USA all its requirements from Pakistan:--
1- Kashmir's status as an independent pro-US state
2-Pakistan denuclearized and reduced to impotence vis-à-vis India
3-A South America type country with a totally pro USA vassal military junta
Many of Musharraf's key advisers are US men like Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz who is a US citizen on leave from CITI Bank, described in US Senate report as " Idiot Banker" and one who was actively involved in laundering Panama's Noreiga's assets. It is generally believed that Shaukat Aziz also has business interests in Macdonalds Pakistan which is thought to be a Zionist owned business. Another key member Ex President Farooq Leghari has close connection with US agencies and is thought to be the key man who delivered Aimal Kansi to USA.
It is common knowledge that the men who Pakistan is now delivering to USA like a "Dog Catcher" were the same men given safe sanctuary in Pakistan for many years. They are now being betrayed not because of any matter of principle but simply as a matter of self-projection and in order to please USA .The Pakistani public feels that all this is a part of Musharraf's personal agenda and has little to do with any national objectives of Pakistan.
Musharraf has brought in the Pakistan Army into all spheres of the country's economic life thereby reducing what Clausewitz called " Military Virtue" of the army .The aim being to allow the army as a class a share in the pie. Many generals and ex generals occupy key positions in various prime slots. While in 1999 Musharraf endeavored to achieve his ambitions by sacrificing at least 500 dead in Kargil now he is seen as achieving his ambitions by acting as USA's most trusted man catching terrorists or so called terrorists. Many analysts think that the demise of Pakistan as a state may be round the corner the way Musharraf is steering his course of opportunism.
US 3rd ACR still facing shortages in Iraq
Forwarded by Mike Krohn, an article by John Diedrich of the Colorado Springs Gazette.
RAMADI, Iraq - Fort Carson soldiers continue to have problems getting enough supplies, especially fuel and oil, and many have received mail only twice.
Soldiers in 2nd Squadron of the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment were restricted Thursday to two Meals Ready to Eat, or MREs, a day and four bottles of water. Units were running low on food and water and were expecting a resupply shortly.
Fuel and oil were in shortest supply. Some vehicles have been sidelined until more oil arrives. Others have kept going with oil purchased or received as gifts from Iraqis.
Regiment officials said the squadron has moved so quickly that supplies have not caught up.
Another problem is that the regiment is widely dispersed. Second Squadron is patrolling three cities west of Baghdad; 1st and 3rd squadrons will go farther west.
“We’re spread out,” said Capt. Bren Workman. “It will catch up.”
The shortages are frustrating to commanders.
“Have I skipped a meal when I’ve been hungry? No. Have I drank as much water as I should? No. Have I put out patrols without adequate ammunition? Yes,” said Capt. Dave Palazzo, commander of Eagle Troop.
Palazzo, whose unit is patrolling Ramadi, canceled a checkpoint Wednesday because of a shortage of body armor. As an armored unit, these soldiers typically wear vests that stop shrapnel, not bullets, so now they share body armor.
“I’m not going to put my guys out there in jeopardy,” he said.
The slowness of the mail has been vexing for the unit. Second Squadron, which began arriving in Kuwait a month ago, has received mail twice, the second time late Thursday. Other squadrons have received more mail.
“That is our only contact to the outside world,” said 1st Sgt. Edward Rivera of Eagle Troop. “That is the soldiers’ only complaint, and I agree.”
May 2, 2003
South Asia
Fallujah, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment May 1, 2003
Iraq, Israel April 30
President Musharraf's Crisis April 29
Asefi warns Iranian pilgrims not to make visits to Iraq April 29
Parades for national day can't hide weakness in Afghan army APril 29
Delhi planning to sell missiles to friends
Rajit Pandit writing in the Times of India.
NEW DELHI: To boost defence exports, India plans to sell missiles to "friendly countries" in the near future. The systems being earmarked for export range from cruise missiles to anti-tank guided missiles.
Defence sources, at the same time, stress that the missiles to be exported will in no way contravene international norms or exceed restrictions imposed by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), even though India is not a signatory to it.
Established in 1987 by the US and other Western powers but with no status in international law, the MTCR bans export of missiles capable of delivering a 500 kg payload over 300 km.
The Indian missile likely to have ‘‘tremendous’’ export potential is ‘‘BrahMos’’, the 290-km-range anti-ship supersonic cruise missile being jointly developed with Russia.
India and Russia plan to begin the induction of this air- breathing missile — virtually all other anti-ship missiles either fly at subsonic speeds or have a much shorter range — into their armed forces in the next six to seven months. Thereafter, the export potential of ‘‘BrahMos’’, which can fly at a velocity of up to 2.8 Mach and can be launched from a variety of platforms, will be actively explored.
There will be an estimated $10 billion demand for such missiles in the coming years.
'50 more al-Qaeda men hiding in Karachi'
For full story by Azfar-ul-Ashfaque, click Jang.
KARACHI: Three Arabs, including the prime suspect of USS Cole bombing, Waleed Muhammad bin Attash alias Khalid al-Attash, were given in the custody of the US officials on Thursday, where they were being interrogated in the presence of Pakistani intelligence officials.
The three Arabs, Waleed bin Attash, Abu Ammar and Abdul Aziz, who is said to be nephew of Khalid Shaikh Muhammad, and seven other al-Qaeda suspects were arrested from Karachi on Wednesday. Initially, they were interrogated by local intelligence officials and then al-Attash, Abu Ammar and Abdul Aziz were handed over to the US agents here for questioning in the presence of Pakistani officials.
Source told The News that Waleed, a Yemeni, had disclosed the presence of some 50 more al-Qaeda militants in Karachi. Waleed was being quizzed by the US officials about whereabouts of Osama bin Laden, future planning of the al-Qaeda and details of other militants, who were still at large, according to the sources. "Waleed told investigators that after the fall of Taliban some 75 al-Qaeda militants escaped to Karachi and out them some 50 milit